2024 Giro d'Italia Pre-Race Cheat Sheet
Breaking down all the need-to-know information as we head into the first Grand Tour of the 2024 season
With tomorrow’s kickoff of the first (and most beautiful) grand tour of the year, the Giro d’Italia, I wanted to take a moment to lay out a few key thoughts regarding the course, the contenders, and what will ultimately decide the outcome of this stunning race. Sign up as a premium BTP member to get daily stage breakdowns.
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The 2024 Giro d’Italia, which begins tomorrow in Turin, and finishes in three weeks’ time in Rome, features an almost absurdly one-sided GC startlist, with the heavy pre-race favorite, Tadej Pogačar, coming off a near-perfect spring season and facing a course that is almost intentionally created to play to his strengths. However, race organizer RCS ditched the extremely literal South to North tour of the country of Italy format that featured an extremely slow boil as the mountains got higher and the terrain harder into the final week, in lieu of a more balanced course that begins with fireworks in the Piedmont region in the opening weekend.
2024 Giro d’Italia Route Overview:
2024 Giro d’Italia Stage List
Stage 1: Venaria Reale > Turin (136km)-hills
Stage 2: San Francesco Al Campo > Oropa (150km)-mountains (summit finish)
Stage 3: Novara > Fossano (165km)-flat
Stage 4: Acqui Terme > Andora (187km)-flat
Stage 5: Genova > Lucca (176km)-flat-ish
Stage 6: Viareggio > Rapolano Terme (177km)-hills (w/gravel sections)
Stage 7: Foligno > Perugia (37.2km)-individual time trial
Stage 8: Spoletto > Prati di Tivo (153km)-mountains (summit finish)
Stage 9: Avezzano > Naples (206km)-hills
Rest Day #1: May 15th
Stage 10: Pompei > Cusano Mutri (141km)-mountains (summit finish)
Stage 11: Foiano di Valfortore > Francavilla Al Mare (203km)-flat
Stage 12: Martiniscuro > Fano (183km)-hills
Stage 13: Riccione > Cento (179km)-flat
Stage 14: Castiglione delle Stivere > Desenzano del Garda (31km)-individual time trial
Stage 15: Manerba del Garda > Livigno (220km)-mountains (summit finish)
Rest Day #2: May 20th
Stage 16: Livigno > Santa Cristina Val Gardena (202km)-mountains (summit finish)
Stage 17: Selva di Val Gardena > Passo dei Brocon (154km)-mountains (summit finish)
Stage 18: Fiera di Primiero > Padova (166km)-flat
Stage 19: Mortegliano > Sappada (154km)-hills (uphill finish)
Stage 20: Alpago > Bassano del Grappa: (175km)-mountains
Stage 21: Rome > Rome (128km)-flat
Breakdown by Stage Type:
7 Mountain Stages
6 Summit Finishes
7 Flat(ish) Stage
5 Hilly Stages
2 Individual Time Trials
68.2 total kms
7 climbing kms
2024 Course Difficulty Breakdown
In addition to keeping the time trial kilometers high, the Giro organizers have drastically reduced the number of climbing kilometers, reducing the course difficulty rating to a (tied) fifteen-year low of 6.3.
Past Winner List, Specialty & Course Difficulty Rating:
2010: Ivan Basso, pure climber, 11.4
2011: Alberto Contador, climber, 13.3
2012: Ryder Hesjedal, hybrid climber, 14.1
2013: Vincenzo Nibali, climber, 6.3
2014: Nairo Quintana, pure climber, 6.4
2015: Alberto Contador, climber, 8.6
2016: Vincenzo Nibali, pure climber, 7.5
2017: Tom Dumoulin, hybrid time trialist/climber, 7.7
2018: Chris Froome, hybrid time trialist/climber, 11.5
2019: Richard Carapaz, pure climber, 8.5
2020: Tao Geoghegan Hart, climber, 8.3
2021: Egan Bernal, climber, 12.2
2022: Jai Hindley, climber, 19.5
2023: Primož Roglič, hybrid time trialist/climber, 7.4
2024: ?, 6.3
This creates a more open race in theory, but in practice, especially with the early summit finishes and time trials, it should allow Tadej Pogačar to take an early lead before putting things on cruise control all the way to Rome.
Along with significantly fewer vertical meters, the 2024 Giro will feature significantly fewer kilometers and much shorter stages.
Giro d’Italia Average Stage Length:
2024: 158.6kms per stage
2023: 159kms per stage
2022: 164.3kms per stage
2021: 162.4kms per stage
2020: 160kms per stage
2019: 168.9kms per stage
2018: 170.1kms per stage
2017: 172kms per stage
In addition to a shorter average distance, the Giro has significantly reduced the number of stages over 200 kilometers in an effort to eliminate, or at least minimize, the ultra-long and near-actionless slogs that have defined recent editions of the race. Thankfully, the number is riding a downward year-over-year trendline.
To put into perspective how out-of-control these ultra-long stages had gotten, in 2023, there was a total of ten 200km+ stages across the sport’s three grand tours, and the Giro accounted for 60% of those.
Another lever RCS has pulled is putting a tough summit finish on the second stage and placing three of the six total summit finishes in the first ten stages.
Outside of adding some stakes and action to the first week, this was potentially an effort to entice Tadej Pogačar to come to the race since it should allow him to build up such an insurmountable lead in the first fourteen stages that they can cruise to victory without draining himself before the Tour.
Theoretically, it won’t be this straightforward for Pogačar, especially since the Giro d’Italia tends to serve as a meat grinder to uninitiated GC hopefuls (i.e. Bradley Wiggins 2013, Geraint Thomas 2017).
However, in practice, unless Pogačar is injured in a crash, which isn’t particularly likely due to his superior bike handling skills, the stage is set for him to pull out an early lead before sitting back, having his UAE team set a steady tempo, and allowing every stage in the final week to be contested from the breakaway.
However, if the slim chance of Pogačar succumbing to an unfortunate early exit, like Remco Evenepoel on last year’s opening rest day, does come to fruition, we will see a nearly historic open race due to the lack of consistently dominant GC stars in the field behind.
Key Course Takeaways
1) Don’t Expect GC Fireworks: While the back loaded third week in last year’s race created a stalemate and all but killed any chance of aggressive racing, which resulted in one of the dullest Grand Tours, at least from a GC perspective, in recent history.
With this in mind, logic would dictate that a more balanced course and significantly fewer total vertical meters would produce more open racing. However, somewhat oddly, this is likely to make the race even more subdued since it means a larger pool of riders will be in contention for the coveted top ten spots up until the final few days, which could see the top 20-ish riders sitting tight and hoping to snipe a top ten spot on Stages 16-20.
And, with the opening two weeks holding two time trials and multiple summit finishes, the race’s strongest rider, likely to be Tadej Pogačar, will almost certainly already hold a large lead that his team will be looking to defend by allowing breakaways to build up large advantages and contest the wins on the toughest mountain stages, while the GC group rides along at a steady, UAE-controlled pace behind.
It may be tempting to imagine riders like Geraint Thomas and Romain Bardet leveraging their veteran experience by attacking and laying tactical traps for Pogačar during this third week, but the problem with the hardest stages in the race coming at the end, particularly after both time trials and four summit finishes are already concluded, is that the rider with the race lead has demonstrated they are the strongest rider in the race, which means the rest will be incentivized not to provoke them for fear of being attacked, dropped and falling off the overall podium.
2) Even if the GC is a Bore, the Battle for Stage Wins Should be Worth Watching: With the sport’s two other Grand Tours, the Tour de France and Vuelta a España becoming less and less amenable to traditional sprinters due to their shift away from easy tempo, pancake flat stages, the Giro d’Italia appears to be swooping in to fill this void by providing ample sprinting opportunities, and have been rewarded with an extremely strong lineup of sprinters, including Olav Kooij, Tim Merlier, Fabio Jakobsen, Jonathan Milan and Caleb Ewan, which should produce a consistent flow of thrilling stage win battles.
In fact, the course offers so many juicy sprint opportunities that, in a somewhat strange turn, Pogačar’s UAE team has brought a sprinter, Juan Sebastián Molano, and a leadout rider, Rui Oliveira.
While this increases their chances of racking up stage wins, dedicating two of their eight roster spots to stage wins goals seems fairly risky on the first stage of a historically difficult Giro/Tour double attempt.
UAE’s team construction, with their pursuit of the overall title and sprint stage wins, could theoretically leave Pogačar vulnerable in key stages and is the only factor that could realistically be presented as a potential weakness heading into this race.
So, Who Will Win?
Serious GC Contenders:
Tadej Pogačar (-400) has come into 2024 with the best form of his career, as evidenced by his seven victories from his ten race starts so far this season. With the course offering up a near-perfect course for him and no other GC contenders possessing the physical level to match him, we can’t realistically name anyone else as a potential winner, assuming Pogačar stays healthy and, with the opening weekend presenting him with a chance to grab the leader’s jersey, it isn’t absurd to imagine him holding the race lead from start to finish. Additionally, with UAE’s rival teams likely already aiming for the two lesser podium spots, is it possible Pogačar won’t have to face full-on attacks and assaults from teams like Ineos, Decathlon, and DSM since they will start their jockeying for 2nd and 3rd right after the opening weekend.
Select Podium Challengers
Ben O’Connor (+2200) has come into 2024 with consistently strong performances, and, despite failing to win the three stage races he has completed so this season, he is one of the only GC contenders with proven good form and a skillset well-rounded enough to take advantage of this course. Additionally, his on fire Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale team brings a strong support squad.
Geraint Thomas (+800) is coming off an impressive second-place overall ride at last year’s Giro and will likely have plenty of support from a strong Ineos team. He has looked hopelessly off the pace so far this season, but months of lackluster racing prior to a Grand Tour goal hasn’t stopped him from producing solid GC results in the past, and, especially with the time trial heavy and brutal mountain stage light course, the veteran Tour de France winner can’t be counted out as a podium contender.
Romain Bardet (+2000) is coming off a strong showing at Liège-Bastogne-Liège and, with seven career Grand Tour top tens, has proven an ability to ride consistently for three weeks. While the time trials will dent his chances of a podium, he is one of the only riders in the race with both the attacking ability and career success to have the luxury of not caring about another top ten, to make up time in the third week with long-range attacks.
Thymen Arensman (+3300) is coming off sixth place at the 2023 Giro d’Italia and, at 24 years old, should be on a higher level than he was last year. While he will likely have to work for Geraint Thomas, his Ineos team has proven in recent years they are happy to allow multiple riders to contest high overall placings, and if Thomas finds himself off the pace, which he has been so far in 2024, look for Arensman to pick up the team’s hopes of finishing on the podium.
Daniel Martínez (+2500) is capable of worldclass climbing performances while also struggling with consistently, sometimes within the same stage race. And, on that note, in just 2024, he has finished second at Volta Algarve behind Remco Evenepoel, and failed to finish the Tour de Romandie. However, his mixture of class, and past palmares (5th at the 2021 Giro), means he can’t be counted as a potential podium finisher.
Florian Lipowitz (+8000) muscled his way onto his Bora team’s Giro roster after riding to a surprise third place at the Tour de Romandie and looking like an emerging stage racing star in the process. Assuming this is his first career Grand Tour start, a podium finish is unlikely, but a top ten isn’t out of the question.
Alexey Lutsenko (+20000) may have fallen ill at the recent Tour of Romandie, but his stellar riding at the Giro d’Abruzzo and two Tour de France top tens in 2022 and 2021 means that he has a very real chance to get a Grand Tour podium finish at this Giro d’Italia (like Thomas De Gendt finishing third at the 2012 Giro d’Italia).
Thank you for the run down of all the US riders.