2024 Rider Tiers Part 2: Who Are The Top One-Day Contenders Heading Into the Upcoming Season?
Breaking down where each top Monument contender stands as we approach the 2024 season
As the start date for the 2024 season continues to march closer, we will continue to take stock of who the sport’s elite riders are in each major discipline (grand tours, one-classics & stage winning) heading into 2024 to give us a clearer view of what to expect when these major events roll around.
Catch Up:
Part 1: Ranking The 2024 Grand Tour Contenders
Ranking The Top 2024 One-Day Contenders
To build off last week's tiering of the top 2024 Grand Tour contenders, we are separating the top one-day Monument* contenders into five tiers this week. To delineate them into tiers, I am taking into account 1) top three results in World-Tour-level one-day races over the past four seasons, with results generated recently given more emphasis, 2) their age, and, most importantly 3) their likelihood to generate results (wins) in WorldTour-level one-day races (entire WordTour one-day calendar plus Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne) the 2024 season.
*’Monuments’ refer to a series of races that comprise the five most important one-day races on the calendar. Read more here.
Why This Is Helpful
As I outlined last week, the purpose of this exercise is to attempt to objectively cut through the noise and see who the best riders in each discipline are. This is especially important in the modern landscape since there is an odd inversion where the less a rider produces, the more media coverage they receive.
The Criteria
While there is a nearly endless array of both established and emerging one-day talents, to qualify for the top four tiers, a rider must have either won a Monument, or World Championship road race, in the past four seasons or landed on a Monument or World Championship podium within the past two years, as well as having results in recent seasons that indicate an ability to continue winning in the future.
This criterion is certainly not perfect, and bound to leave out talented up-and-coming one-day riders, like Neilson Powless, Matteo Jorgenson, Magnus Sheffield, and Quinn Simmons, who may go on to win multiple major one-day races in the future. However, just for the sake of keeping the list manageable for this exercise, I am mostly filtering out this type of rider who is hanging around the top ten of major one-day races by only including riders who have scored major world one-day victories.
I may get burned by this if one of these riders wins a Monument in 2024, but, in most cases, a rider usually finishes inside the top few places before winning at top one-day races (Remco Evenepoel’s 2019 San Sebastian victory is an example of a recent outlier).
Below, each rider is listed in their BTP designated tier along with the age they will be racing at in 2024:
The Tiers:
Tier 1:
Reserved for riders who have proven an ability to win the sport’s biggest one-day races against the sport’s best competition in recent years and have the ability to do so in 2024. This is obviously an incredibly elite group made up of riders who have the rare combination of elite talent and recent real-world results to back that talent up.
Tadej Pogačar (25)
2023: 1st@Flanders, 1st@Amstel Gold, 1st@Fleche Wallonne, 1st@IlLombardia, 3rd@WorldChampionshipsRR, 3rd@E3
2022: 1st@Lombardia, 1st@Strade, 1st@GP Montreal
2021: 1st@Lombardia, 1st@Liège
2020: 3rd@Liège
Totals: 5xMonument wins, 6xMonument Podiums, 1xWC podium, 4xother WT one-day wins
Mathieu van der Poel (29)
2023: 1st@MilanoSanremo, 1st@ParisRoubaix, 1st@WorldChampionshipRR, 2nd@Flanders, 2nd@E3
2022: 1st@Flanders, 1st@Dwars, 3rd@Sanremo
2021: 1st@Strade, 2nd@Flanders, 3rd@Paris-Roubaix, 3rd@E3
2020: 1st@Flanders
Totals: 4xMonument wins, 8xMonument podium, 1xWC win, 4xotherWT podiums, 2xotherWT wins
Wout van Aert (29)
2023: 3rd@Paris-Roubaix, 3rd@MilanoSanremo, 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR, 1st@E3, 2nd@Gent-Wevelgem
2022: 1st@Omloop, 1st@E3, 1st@Bretagne, 2nd@Paris-Roubaix, 2nd@GPMontreal, 2nd@Bemer, 3rd@Liège
2021: 1st@Amstel Gold, 1st@GentWevelgem, 2nd@OlympicsRR, 3rd@Sanremo
2020: 1st@Sanremo, 1st@Strade, 2nd@Flanders, 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR
Totals: 1xMonument win, 7xMonument podium, 2xWC podium, 10xotherWT podiums, 7xotherWT wins, , 1xOlympic podium
Remco Evenepoel (24)
2023: 1st@Liège, 1st@San Sebastian
2022: 1st@Liège, 1st@San Sebastian, 1xWorld Championship RR
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 2xMonument win, 1xWC win, 2xother WT wins
Tier 2:
Riders who have both won in the past, and could win in 2024, major one-day Monuments, and other World Tour one-day races. These riders will be considered serious potential winners across the one-days in 2024 if they are on the start list.
Jasper Philipsen (25)
2023: 1st@Brugge-De Panne, 2nd@Paris-Roubaix
2022: N/A
2021: 1st@Eschborn Frankfurt, 2nd@Brugge-De Panne
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xMonument podium, 2xother WT wins, 3xother WT podiums
Tom Pidcock (24)
2023: 1st@Strade, 2nd@Liege, 3rd@Amstel
2022: 3rd@Dwars
2021: 2nd@Amtstel, 3rd@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xother WT win, 5xotherWT podiums
Christophe Laporte (31)
2023: 1st@Gent-Wevelgem, 1st@DwarsdoorVlaanderen, 3rd@Omloop
2022: 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR, 2nd@Gent-Wevelgem, 2nd@E3
2021: 2nd@Dwars door Vlaanderen
2020: N/A
Totals: 2xother WT wins, 6xotherWT podiums, 1xWC podium
Primož Roglič (34)
2023: 3rd@IlLombardia
2022: N/A
2021: 2nd@FlècheWallone
2020: 1st@Liège
Totals: 1xMonument win, 2xMonument podium, 1xother WT podium
Dylan van Baarle (31)
2023: 1st@Omloop
2022: 1st@Paris-Roubaix, 2nd@Flanders
2021: 1st@Dwars, 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xMonument win, 2xMonument podium, 1xWC podium, 2xotherWT win
Tier 3:
Riders who are able to win, but not be the outright favorite, at a good number of Monuments this coming season, but could very likely pick off a win at other major one-day races in 2024.
Mads Pedersen (28)
2023: 3rd@Flanders, 1st@Bemer Classic
2022: N/A
2021: 1st@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
2020: 1st@Gent-Wevelgem
Totals: 1xMonument podium, 3xotherWT win
Matej Mohorič (29)
2023: 3rd@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
2022: 1st@MilanoSanremo
2021: 2nd@SanSebastian
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xMonument win, 2xotherWT podium
Valentin Madouas (27)
2023: 1st@Bretagne Classic, 2nd@Strade
2022: 3rd@Flanders
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xother WT win, 2xother WT podiums
Tier 4:
These riders have an outside chance of winning and a good chance at podium finishes at non-Monument one-day races in 2024. Due to the chaotic nature of one-day racing, if things go their way, any of them could win even the biggest races, but their varying places on the age/experience curve, talents, teams, and riding styles make them far less prolific winners.
For example, while Tiesj Benoot has proven he can win big races on occasion, the finale has to unfold in a certain way due to his lack of a sprint finish, and while Arnaud De Lie has emerged as one of the strongest young riders in the sport, and a prolific winner at lower-level races, he hasn’t been able to leverage that talent into consistent elite one-day results.
Kasper Asgreen (29)
2023: N/A
2022: 3rd@Strade
2021: 1st@Flanders, 1st@E3
2020: 1st@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
Totals: 1xmonument win, 1xmonument podium, 1xotherWTwins, 3xother WT podiums (including Kuurne)
Andrea Bagioli (24)
2023: 2nd@IlLombardia
2022: 3rd@GP Montréal
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xotherWT podium
Michael Matthews (32)
2023: 3rd@GP Québec
2022: 2nd@GP Quebec, 3rd@WorldChampionshipRR
2021: N/A
2020: 1st@Bretagne, 3rd@MilanoSanremo
Totals: 1xotherWT wins, 3xother WT podiums, 1xWC podium
Tiesj Benoot (29)
2023: 1st@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne, 3rd@Strade
2022: 2nd@Dwars door Vlaanderen, 3rd@San Sebastian, 3rd@Amstel
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xother WT win, 5xother WT podiums
Arnaud De Lie (21)
2023: 1st@GP Québec, 2nd@Omloop
2022: N/A
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Total: 1xother WT win, 2xother WT podiums
Tier 5:
A collection of the sport’s top one-day talents who either lack a Monument win in the last four seasons or, in the case of Jasper Stuyven and Julian Alaphilippe, have failed to prove an ability to consistently replicate race-winning performances at the biggest races in recent seasons.
Biniam Girmay (23)
2023: N/A
2022: 1st@Gent-Wevelgem, 3rd@GP Montreal
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xotherWT win, 2xotherWT podiums
Ben Healy (23)
2023: 2nd@Amstel
2022: N/A
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xotherWT podium
Julian Alaphilippe (31)
2023: N/A
2022: N/A
2021: 1st@WorldChamionshipRR, 1st@LaFleche, 2nd@Liege, 2nd@Bretange
2020: 1st@WorldChamionshipRR, 2nd@MilanoSanremo, 2nd@Strade
Totals: 2xWC wins, 1xMonument podium, 1xotherWT wins, 3xotherWT podiums
Jasper Stuyven (31)
2023: N/A
2022: N/A
2021: 1st@MilanoSanremo
2020: 1st@Omloop
Totals: 1xmonument win, 1xotherWT win
Marc Hirschi (25)
2023: N/A
2022: N/A
2021: N/A
2020: 2nd@Liège, 3rd@WorldChampionship RR, 1st@LaFlèche
Totals: 1xmonument podium, 1xWorldChampionship podium, 1xother WT win
Anthony Turgis (28)
2023: N/A
2022: 2nd@MilanoSanremo
2021: 2nd@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne
2020: N/A
1xMonument podium, 1xother WT podium
Quinten Hermans (28)
2023: N/A
2022: 2nd@Liege, 3rd@Bremer
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xMonument podium, 1xotherWT podium
Key Takeaways
1) The ability to win the top one-day races is becoming more and more concentrated with the upper echelon of riders
What stood out the most when building this list is the sheer rarity of riders who are able to consistently win the sport’s biggest one-day races.
In fact, only ten active riders have won a Monument in the last four seasons (out of 20 total races), with just three riders, Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogačar, and Remco Evenepoel, accounting for over 50% of wins at those 20 races.
In addition to top wins clustering with a few top riders, another mind-bending trend is how the lists of top grand tour riders and top one-day riders blend together.
For example, half of the Tier 1 riders were also included in the two top tiers of the Grand Tour rider rankings, and three Grand Tour riders, Evenepoel, Pogačar, and Primož Roglič, landed in the top two tiers on one-day racers.
Some might find the trend of a few top riders regularly winning the sport’s top races and having roughly the same form across the entire season, but this does closely adhere to logic and is potentially even linked to the sport being cleaner than in the past.
In almost every high-level sport, the top performers are the best performers across nearly every competition, and it tracks that this would be the same in cycling.
2) One-day dominance is also being concentrated at a few top teams
Tier Team Power Rankings:
1) Visma: 1xTier 1, 2xTier 2, 1xTier 5
2) Soudal-QuickStep: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
3) Alpecin-Deceuninck: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 2, 1xTier 5
4) UAE: 1xTier 1, 1xTier 5
5) Lidl-Trek: 1xTier 3, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
6) Ineos: 1xTier 2
7) Bora: 1xTier 2
8) Groupama-FDJ: 1xTier 3
9) Jayco: 1xTier 4
10) EF: 1xTier 5
11) Lotto: 1xTier 5
12) Intermarché: 1xTier 5
13) TotalEnergies: 1xTier 5While their sweep of every 2023 grand tour made it glaringly obvious that Jumbo-Visma (soon to be Visma-Rent a Bike) is the sport’s top grand tour team, with a total of four tiered riders, including a rider in Tier 1, two in Tier 2, their collection of top-tier one-day Classics team is also sport-leading.
Soudal-QuickStep’s decline in the Northern Cobbled Classics has been well documented, but surprisingly, mainly due to the presence of Remco Evenepoel, they are still a formidable squad across the sport’s top one-day races.
Alpecin-Deceuninck may have previously been a top-heavy squad that revolved around Mathieu van der Poel, but the emergence of Jasper Philipsen as a bonafide one-day contender has given the team depth at the top end that only Jumbo-Visma can surpass.
UAE may be building an extremely deep-stage racing program, but when it comes to one-day races, they are still heavily dependent on Tadej Pogačar.
Despite a plethora of young talent and money, Ineos only has a single-tiered rider.
3) Every facet of modern professional cycling is officially a young man’s game
We’ve heard about the youth wave taking over the sport for years, but nothing underlines this trend like the fact that just six out of the 24 (25%) total riders who qualified for the 2024 One-Day Tier rankings are under the age of thirty.
Two veteran stars, Michał Kwiatkowski (33) and Alberto Bettiol (30), failed to even qualify for 2024’s one-day tiers.
Just a few years ago, a rider wouldn’t have been considered able to contest the biggest one-day races until they had years of experience under their belt and had developed their physical system to handle 200+ kilometer races.
However, the modern era has made this wisdom, which until recently was almost universally accepted until recently, appear nearly completely untrue.