2024 Rider Tiers Part 3: Who Are The Top Sprinters/Stage-Hunters Heading Into the Upcoming Season?
Breaking down where each major grand tour stage win contender stands as we kick off the 2024 season
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Even with the 2024 WorldTour season kicking off this week at the Tour Down Under (premium subscribers will receive a race breakdown of the opening few stages later this week), I wanted to continue to look forward to the upcoming major races of the 2024 racing season. To build off last month’s tiering of the top 2024 Grand Tour and One-Day contenders, today, we are finishing off this three-part series separating the top Grand Tour stage-winning riders into five tiers.
Catch Up:
Part 1: Ranking the 2024 Grand Tour Contenders
Part 2: Ranking the 2024 One-Day Contenders
Ranking the Top 2024 Grand Tour Stage Contenders
When I initially sat down last year to do this exercise last year, I wanted this to be a breakdown of the sport’s top sprinters, but after sorting their grand tour stage results from recent seasons, it became clear that the most prolific modern winners don’t necessarily fall into a pure ‘sprinter’ category (i.e. Wout van Aert) and some, like Tadej Pogačar, have been able to become the sport’s top stage hunters while balancing GC ambitions.
Since the ultimate point of employing a sprinter is to maximize your team’s chances of winning the largest possible volume of races, it only seems fair to weigh sprinters against all other potential stage winners. Unfortunately, outside of making this project much more difficult, this expansion meant that many talented (especially young) riders had to be left off.
Why This Is Helpful
As I outlined last week, the purpose of this exercise is to attempt to cut through the noise objectively and see who the best riders in each discipline are. This is especially important in the modern landscape, where there can be an odd inversion of a rider’s results and the media coverage they receive, and the general narrative can be incredibly slow when it comes to recognizing that riders have passed their prime and are no longer consistent contenders and that certain riders win at an incredibly high rate (i.e., Mads Pedersen).
The Criteria
To delineate them into tiers, I am taking into account 1) top three results in grand tour stages over the past four seasons, with results generated recently given greater emphasis, 2) their age, and, most importantly 3) their likelihood to generate results (wins) in grand tour stages across the 2024 season.
While there is a nearly endless array of established and emerging stage-winning talents, a rider must have won a grand tour stage in the past two seasons to qualify for a spot in the five tiers. Some younger riders, like Derek Gee, Olav Kooij, Quinn Simmons, and Arnaud de Lie, may go on to win multiple grand tour stages in 2024, but for the sake of this exercise and to keep the list from ballooning to an unmanageable size, we are only focusing on riders who have ticked this box.
Additionally, since every grand tour doesn’t have the same level of competition, Tour de France stage wins are weighted above wins at the two other ‘lesser’ grand tours (Giro & Vuelta).
One major thing that stood out while pouring over these results was the undeniable trend in the modern iteration of the sport where pure sprinters struggle to dominate the stage-win count as the rise of more challenging courses, and more versatile superstars squeeze their opportunities for stage wins.
This is especially prevalent at the Tour de France, where the higher level of talent, increasing stakes, ever-challenging courses, and, for the most part, the death of the pancake-flat transition stage, have made it tougher and tougher for pure sprinters to rack up wins.
Below, each rider is listed in their BTP designated tier along with the age they will be racing at in 2024:
Tier 1
Reserved for riders who have proven an ability to win multiple stages at the sport’s top grand tours against the toughest competition and, most importantly, have the ability to do so in 2024. Just at a glance, it becomes clear this is an incredibly elite group of riders with the rare combination of elite talent and recent real-world results to back that talent up.
Primož Roglič (34)
2023: 1xGiro wins (2xGiro podiums), 2xVuelta wins (4xVuelta podiums)
2022: 1xLaVuelta wins (2xLaVuelta podiums), 0xTdF wins (1xTdF podium)
2021: 2xLaVuelta wins (6xLaVuelta podiums), 0xTdF wins (2xTdF podiums)
2020: 3xLaVuelta wins (6xLaVuelta stage podiums), 1xTdF stage win (4xTdF podium)
Totals: 10xGT stage wins (6xLaVuelta, 1xTdF), 27xGT stage podiums
Jasper Philipsen (25)
2023: 4xTdF wins (6xTdF podiums)
2022: 2xTdF wins (5xTdF podiums)
2021: 2xLaVuelta wins (3xLaVuelta podiums), (6xTdF podiums)
2020: 1xLaVuelta win (2xLaVuelta podiums)
Totals: 9xGT stage wins (6xTdF 3xVuelta), 22xGT stage podiums
Tadej Pogačar (25)
2023: 2xTdF win (7xTdF podium)
2022: 3xTdF win (5xTdF podium)
2021: 2xTdF win (3xTdF podium)
2020: 2xTdF win (4xTdF podium)
Totals: 9xGT stage wins (9xTdF), 19xGT total stage podiums
Remco Evenepoel (24)
2023: 2xGiro win (2xGiro podiums), 3xLaVuelta wins (6xLaVuelta podiums)
2022: 1xLaVuelta stage win (3xLaVuelta podium)
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 6xGT stage win (4xLaVuelta, 2xGiro), 11xGT stage podiums
Tier 2
Riders who have both won in the past, and could again in 2024, multiple grand tour stages, but, their Tour de France success either lacks the required volume (Vingegaard & Pedersen), or recency (Van Aert) to land them in the top tier. Still, these riders will be considered serious potential stage winners across any grand tour they take part in during the 2024 season.
Mads Pedersen (28)
2023: 1xGiro win (3xGiro podium), 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
2022: 3xLaVuelta win (7xLaVuelta podium), 1xTdF win (3xTdF podium)
2021: N/A
2020: 2xTdF podium
Totals: 6xGT stage win (3xLaVuelta, 1xGiro, 2xTdF), 16xGT stage podiums
Wout van Aert (29)
2023: 0x wins (4xTdF Podium)
2022: 2xTdF wins (6xTdF podium)
2021: 2xTdF wins (3xTdF podium)
2020: 2xTdF wins (4xTdF podium)
Totals: 6xGT stage wins (6xTdF), 17xGT stage podiums
Jonas Vingegaard (27)
2023: 1xTdF win (4xTdF podium), 2xLaVuelta win (4xLaVuelta podium)
2022: 2xTdF wins (4xTdF podium)
2021: 0xTdF stage wins (2xTdF podium)
2020: N/A
Totals: 5xGT stage wins (3xTdF, 2xLaVuelta), 14xGT stage podiums
Tier 3
The level of talent in this tier is absurdly high, as evidenced by world-class riders sprinters like Groves, a multi-time world champion in Filippo Ganna, and a superstar in the form of Mathieu van der Poel. While they are all capable of winning multiple stages at any grand tour they enter, up until this point, they have lacked either the volume or recency of success at the Tour de France needed to crack a higher tier. The 2024 season will present a major opportunity for every rider in this tier to increase their standing, but with so much quality occupying the tiers above them and the youth in the ranks below them, this will prove to be no easy feat.
Filippo Ganna (27)
2023: 0xGiro wins (1xGiro podiums), 1xLaVuelta win (4xLaVuelta podium)
2022: N/A
2021: 2xGiro wins (2xGiro podiums)
2020: 4xGiro wins (4xGiro podiums)
Totals: 7xGT stage wins (6xGiro, 1xLaVuelta), 11xGT stage podiums
Magnus Cort (31)
2023: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podium)
2022: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium), (1xGiro podium)
2021: 3xLaVuelta win (4xLaVuelta podium), (1xTdF podium)
2020: 1xLaVuelta win (1xLaVuelta podium)
Totals: 6xGT stage win (4xLaVuelta, 1xTdF, 1xGiro), 10xGT stage podium
Kaden Groves (25)
2023: 1xGiro win (3xGiro podium), 3xLaVuelta win (5xLaVuelta podium)
2022: 1xLaVuelta win (1xLaVuelta podium)
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 5xGT stage win (1xGiro, 4xLaVuelta), 9xGT stage podium
Michael Matthews (33)
2023: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podium)
2022: 1xTdF win (3xTdF podium)
2021: 0xLaVuelta wins (2xLaVuelta podium), 0xTdF wins (2xTdF podium)
2020: 0xGiro wins (2xGiro podium)
Totals: 2xGT stage wins (1xGiro, 1xTdF), 11xGT stage podiums
Mathieu van der Poel (29)
2023: N/A
2022: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podium)
2021: 1xTdF stage win (1xTdF podium)
2020: N/A
Totals: 2xGT stage wins (1xTdF, 1xGiro), 3xGT stage podiums
Tier 4
These are riders who are either veterans impressively holding onto their past dominance (Cavendish), solid stage-hunting careerists who have emerged as consistent performers in the past few years (Mohorič), mid-career stars attempting to recover from a disappointing 2023 (Carapaz), or young riders who make up for their lack of volume with scorching-hot upward trajectories and qualities of wins (Pidcock) that indicate they will continue to build on their existing stage win palmares in 2024.
Fabio Jakobsen (27)
2023: N/A
2022: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
2021: 3xLaVuelta win (5xLaVuelta podiums)
2020: N/A
Totals: 4xGT stage wins (1xTdF, 5xVuelta), 6xGT stage podiums
Jonathan Milan (23)
2023: 1xGiro win (5xGiro podium)
2022: N/A
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xGT stage wins (1xGiro), 5xGT stage podiums
Matej Mohorič (29)
2023: 1xTdF win (2xTdF podium)
2022: N/A
2021: 2xTdF wins (2xTdF podiums)
2020: N/A
Totals: 3xGT stage wins (3xTdF), 4xGT stage podiums
Tom Pidcock (24)
2023: N/A
2022: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xGT stage win (1xTdF), 1xGT stage podium
Richard Carapaz (30)
2023: N/A
2022: 3xLaVuelta wins (3xLaVuelta podium), (2xGiro podiums)
2021: (2xTdF podiums)
2020: (3xLaVuelta podiums), (2xTdF podiums)
Totals: 3xGT stage wins (3xLaVuelta), 12xGT total stage podiums
Mark Cavendish (39)
2023: 1xGiro stage win (2xGiro podium), (1xTdF podium)
2022: 1xGiro stage win (3xGiro podium)
2021: 4xTdF stage win (5xTdF podium)
2020: N/A
Totals: 6xGT stage wins (4xTdF, 2xGiro), 11xGT stage podiums
Tier 5
A collection of the sport’s top stage winners who either are struggling to win at the same rate they have in the past (Bennett, Groenewegen, Démare) but are still amongst the elite group of riders capable of winning Tour stages and riders who have won memorable stages at grand tours but lack the ability to rack up the volume of riders in higher tiers (Asgreen).
Arnaud Démare (32)
2023: N/A
2022: 3xGiro win (4xGiro podium)
2021: 0xLaVuelta wins (1xLaVuelta podium)
2020: 4xGiro win (4xGiro podium)
Totals: 7xGT stage wins (7xGiro), 9xGT stage podiums
Sam Bennett (33)
2023: N/A
2022: 2xLaVuelta win (2xLaVuelta podium)
2021: N/A
2020: 1xLaVuelta win (2xLaVuelta podium), 2xTdF win (5xTdF podium)
Totals: 5xGT stage wins (3xLaVuelta, 2xTdF), 9xGT stage podiums
Dylan Groenewegen (30)
2023: (2xTdF podium)
2022: 1xTdF win (2xTdF podium)
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xGT stage win (1xTdF), 4xGT stage podiums
Kasper Asgreen (29)
2023: 1xTdF win (2xTdF podium)
2022: 0xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
Totals: 1xGT stage wins (1xTdF), 3xGT stage podiums
Simon Yates (31)
2023: 0xTdF wins (2xTdF podium)
2022: 1xGiro win (1xGiro podium)
2021: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podium)
2020: N/A
Totals: 2xGT stage wins (2xGiro), 5xGT stage podiums
Adam Yates (31)
2023: 1xTDF win, (2xTdF podium)
2022: N/A
2021: (1xLaVuelta podium)
2020: (1xTdF podium)
Totals: 1xGT stage wins (1xTDF), 4xGT stage podiums
Notable omissions due to not meeting recent-win criteria:
Tim Merlier (31): 2020-2023 Totals: 2xGT stage win (1xTdF, 1xGiro), 5xGT podiums
Julian Alaphilippe (31): 2020-2023 Totals: 2xGT stage wins (2xTdF), 2xGT stage podiums
Caleb Ewan (29): 2020-2023 Totals: 4xGT stage wins (3xTdF, 2xGiro), 7xGT stage podium
Derek Gee (26): 2020-2023 Totals: 4xGT stage podiums
Key Takeaways
1) Tadej Pogačar is undeniably the best rider in the sport
The Slovenian superstar is the only rider to finish in the top tier for the second straight season for all three categories.
I feel like I write this at least once a month, so I apologize for driving it home, but this fact highlights the absurd depth of his skills and why any conversation about any other rider being the best rider in the peloton isn’t even worth having.
Few riders can win both one-day Monuments and grand tour overalls, but almost no one outside the all-time greats can combine those two disparate skills with the ability to become the most prolific modern grand tour stage winner.
If Pogacar can continue his current run of dominance for a full decade (no easy feat), he has a real opportunity to match the palmares of the seemingly untouchable Eddy Merckx.
2) Pure sprinters are still the most efficient type of riders at racking up Grand Tour stage results, but the landscape is quickly shifting
Tier Breakdown by Rider Type:
Pure Sprinter: 8
1xTier 1, 0xTier 2, 1xTier 3, 3xTier 4, 3xTier 5
GC Contenders: 7
3xTier 1, 1xTier 2, 0xTier 3, 1xTier 4, 2xTier 5
One-Day Specialist/Versatile Sprinter: 7
0xTier 1, 2xTier 2, 2xTier 3, 2xTier 4, 1xTier 5
Pure Stage-Hunter (Magnus Cort): 1
1xTier 3
Time Trialist (Filippo Ganna): 1
1xTier 3
Even with purely flat transition stages becoming rarer and rarer in Grand Tours, pure sprinters are still the most efficient way for a team to rack up stage results.
However, this does come with a slight caveat: The best sprinters are becoming more and more versatile, like Jasper Philipsen, since the faster and harder courses can help them leverage their superior fitness to overcome their lack of pure speed/power, and the superstar GC riders are continuing to take up a greater share of stage wins as breakaways are becoming less and less successful.
In fact, illustrating just how important Philipsen’s higher level of versatility and fitness is compared to the other top sprinters, he is the only one of the sprinting Big Six (Philipsen, Jakobsen, Ewan, Bennett, Démare, and Groenewegen) to have won multiple Tour de France stages in the past three seasons.
3) The team-by-team tier breakdowns show just how much Visma has shifted their priorities towards Vingegaard’s Tour de France dominance
Visma went from having two riders in the top tier last year (Wout van Aert and Primož Roglič) to having zero twelve months later.
This is due to Roglič decamping for Bora over the off-season, which he did to get out of Vingegaard’s shadow at the Tour, and Van Aert not producing at his usual level, which is at least partly due to spreading himself thin at the Tour to support Vingegaard.
This isn’t necessarily a bad trend since the team with the top Tour de France in the sport should go all-in to support that rider while they are in their prime, but it does show just how many resources a team has to put in and what they have to sacrifice, to reach the elite levels of stage racing success.
Tier Breakdowns by Team:
Alpecin: 3 (1xTier 1, 2xTier 3)
Jayco: 3 (1xTier 3, 2x Tier 5
UAE: 2 (1xTier 1, 1xTier 5)
Soudal-QuickStep: 2 (1xTier 1, 1xTier 5)
Visma: 2 (2xTier 2)
Lidl-Trek: 2 (1xTier 2, 1xTier 4)
Ineos: 2 (1xTier 3, 1xTier 4)Bora: 1 (1xTier 1)
Uno-X: 1 (1xTier 3)
EF: 1 (1xTier 4)
DSM: 1 (1xTier 4)
Bahrain: 1 (1xTier 4)
Astana: 1 (1xTier 4)
Groupama-FDJ: 1 (1xTier 5)
AG2R: 1 (1xTier 5)
Conversely, Alpecin, which puts little to no effort into GC aspirations, leads the sport regarding stage-hunting depth.
Another notable callout is Jayco, who has assembled an extremely solid stage-hunting roster for the 2024 season.
4) Two of the sport’s biggest stars, Wout van Aert & Mathieu Van der Poel, are surprisingly bad at scoring stage wins in Grand Tours
While nobody can argue their talent and success outside of Grand Tours, it is notable that two of the sport’s most talented and popular riders have had relatively muted presence at the sport’s Grand Tours, mostly due to the fact that they simply don’t race Grand Tours that often (Van Aert has only finished three and Van der Poel two in their five pro seasons).
Outside of not racing them all that often, Van der Poel’s issues stem from the fact that he has tended to be overtrained at the Tour de France (or is training through the race like he did in 2023).
In short, his overloaded schedule continues to siphon off a significant portion of his stage-winning potential.
In addition to not yet racing the Giro and Vuelta, where he surely would have racked up an impressive win count, Van Aert has struggled with the fact that when he races the Tour, he spends a significant amount of time and energy working for his GC teammates.
Somewhat related to this, he has mismanaged the end of key stages (See: TdF 2023 Stages 2, 8 & 15), where he was the heavy favorite, partly due to not having support from his Jumbo team, which was (rightly) focused on the GC at the time.
Congrats on the much deserved syndication deal. Your thoughtful analysis separates you for the rest- may your reach continue to grow.
These last few pieces really do highlight how Jumbo has shifted to rely heavily on Vingegaard. A WVA monument win in the spring would really take some weight off their shoulders. Looks odd for Van Aert to do a classics and Giro focused campaign but skipping the pressure cooker that is the Tour may be the real key to allow him the chance to zero in on a cobbled monument.