2025 Rider Tiers Part 1: Who Are the Top Grand Tour Contenders Heading Into Next Season?

Breaking down where each major grand tour contender stands as we slowly approach the 2025 season

With professional cycling in the middle of its off-season, I thought it would be instructive (as well as just fun) to do my now-annual revisiting of who the sport’s elite riders are at each major discipline (grand tours, one-day classics, and stage wins) heading into 2025 to give us a clearer view of what to expect when these major events roll around.

To kick things off, I am separating the top grand tour contenders into five tiers. To classify them into tiers, I am taking into account 1) their results over the past four seasons, with results generated recently given more emphasis, 2) their age*, and, most importantly, 3) their likelihood to generate results (wins) in the 2025 season.

*rider age is taken from the start of 2025 cycling season

Why This Is Helpful

One major benefit of this exercise is the ability to objectively cut through the noise and see who the best riders in each discipline are. This is especially important in the modern landscape since there is an odd inversion where the less a rider produces, the more media coverage they receive. This inversion can create mismatched expectations amongst fans, and even teams/riders themselves, prior to grand tours when 1/4th of the field is being touted as potential winners and teams are devoting precious resources to GC campaigns of riders with no real chance of contending for podium spots.

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The Criteria

While there is a nearly endless array of emerging grand tour talents who may go on to fantastic careers as grand tour winners, to qualify for the top four tiers, a rider must have either won a grand tour in the past four seasons, or, over the past two seasons, finished in the top two overall places at a Grand Tour or landed in the top five at the Tour de France.

• As a general rule, these tiers are meant to be objective ratings that take a rider’s most recent GC results into account, but there are a few instances where riders with thin GC results, like João Almeida, are elevated and riders that would technically qualify for a tier, like Sepp Kuss, are omitted due to recent results failing to show the required level to compete with the others.

• Young talents with a high ceiling who may be able to make a massive step up from 2024 to 2025 but didn’t hit the markers to land inside the top four will be relegated to the fifth tier.

  • Even though these riders rightfully create a lot of excitement and get significant attention, this theoretical upside is not accounted for in these tiers since most people vastly overestimate how close they are to actually converting their talent into a major grand tour win.

    • Of course, there is always a chance one of them replicates Remco Evenepoel’s 2022 season, when he came in with a history of strong but somewhat scattered big-race results and won a one-day Monument, Grand Tour, and World Road Race Championship title, but due to the unprecedented nature of the season, this is highly unlikely.

Below, each rider is listed in their BTP designated tier along with the age and team they will be racing at in 2025:

The Tiers

Tier 1
Reserved for riders who have proven an ability to win a grand tour against the sport’s best competition in recent years and have the ability to do so in 2025. This is obviously an incredibly select and elite group.

Tadej Pogačar - (26) - UAE

• 2024: 1st@Giro, 1st@TdF

  • 9xGiro stage podiums (6xGiro stage win), 8xTdF stage podiums (6xTdF stage wins)

• 2023: 2nd@TdF

  • 7xTdF stage podiums (2xTdF stage win)

• 2022: 2nd@TdF

  • 5xTdF stage podiums (3xTdF stage win)

• 2021: 1st@TdF

  • 3xTdF stage podiums (2xTdF stage win)

    • GC Totals: 3xGT overall wins (2xTdF, 1xGiro), 5xGT overall podiums (2xTdF runner-up)

    • Stage Totals: 19xGT total stage wins, 32xGT total stage podiums

Jonas Vingegaard - (28) - Visma-Lease a Bike

• 2024: 2nd@TdF

  • 5xTdF stage podiums (1xTdF stage wins)

• 2023: 1st@TdF, 2nd@Vuelta

  • 4xTdF stage podiums (1xTdF stage wins), 4xVuelta stage podiums (2xVuelta stage wins)

• 2022: 1st@TdF

  • 4xTdF stage podiums (2xTdF stage wins)

• 2021: 2nd@TdF

  • 2xTdF stage podiums

    • GC Totals: 2xGT overall wins (2xTdF), 5xGT overall podiums 

    • Stage Totals: 6xGT total stage wins, 19xGT total stage podiums

Tier 2
Riders who will be considered serious potential winners of the Tour de France in 2025 while also having a very good chance to finish on the overall podium. In addition, they will be considered favorites to win the rest of the sport’s grand tours if they are present.

Primož Roglič - (35) - RedBull-Bora-hansgrohe

• 2024: 1st@Vuelta

  • 5xVuelta stage podiums (3xVuelta stage wins), 1xTdF stage podium

• 2023: 1st@Giro, 3rd@Vuelta

  • 2xGiro stage podiums (1xGiro stage win), 4xVuelta stage podiums (2xVuelta stage win)

• 2022: N/A

  • 2xVuelta stage podiums (1xVuelta stage win), 1xTdF stage podium

• 2021: 1st@Vuelta

  • 6xVuelta stage podiums (2xVuelta stage win), 2xTdF stage podium

    • GC Totals: 3xGT overall wins (2xVuelta, 1xGiro), 4xGT overall podiums 

    • Stage Totals: 9xGT total stage wins, 23xGT total stage podiums

Remco Evenepoel - (25) - Soudal-QuickStep

• 2024: 3rd@TdF

  • 6xTdF stage podiums (1xTdF stage win)

• 2023: N/A

  • 2xGiro stage podiums (2xGiro stage wins), 6xVuelta stage podiums (3xVuelta stage wins)

• 2022: 1st@Vuelta

  • 3xVuelta stage podiums (1xVuelta stage win)

• 2021: N/A

  • N/A

    • GC Totals: 1xGT overall win (1xVuelta), 2xGT overall podiums

    • Stage Totals: 7xGT total stage win, 17xGT total stage podiums

Tier 3
Riders who are able to win, but not be the outright favorite, at the sport’s two lesser grand tours (Giro & Vuelta), and are also legitimate contenders to compete for overall podium spots at the Tour de France in 2025.

João Almeida - (26) - UAE

• 2024: 4th@TdF

  • 1xVuelta stage podium

• 2023: 3rd@Giro

  • 3xGiro stage podiums (1xGiro stage win)

• 2022: 5th@Vuelta

  • 1xVuelta stage podium

• 2021: 6th@Giro

  • 2xGiro stage podiums

    • GC Totals: 1xGT overall podiums (1xGiro), 1xTdF overall top five

    • Stage Totals: 1xGT stage win (1xGiro), 7xGT stage podiums (2xVuelta, 5xGiro)

Enric Mas - (29) - Movistar

• 2024: 3rd@Vuelta

  • 2xVuelta stage podiums, 1xTdF stage podium

• 2023: 6th@Vuelta

  • N/A

• 2022: 2nd@Vuelta

  • 4xVuelta stage podiums

• 2021: 2nd@Vuelta

  • 3xVuelta stage podiums

    • GC Totals: 3xGT overall podiums (3xVuelta)

    • Stage Totals: 10xGT stage podiums (9xVuelta, 1xTdF)

Adam Yates - (32) - UAE

• 2024: 6th@TdF

  • 1xVuelta stage podium (1xVuelta stage win)

• 2023: 3rd@TdF

  • 1xTdF stage podium (1xTdF stage win)

• 2022: 9th@TdF

  • N/A

• 2021: 4th@Vuelta

  • 1xVuelta stage podium

    • GC Totals: 1xGT overall podium (1xTdF)

    • Stage Totals: 2xGT stage wins (1xTdF, 1xVuelta), 3xGT total stage podiums

Tier 4
These riders have an outside chance of winning and a better chance at podium finishes at the Giro and Vuelta in 2025. And if a few things break their way, they have an outside shot of finishing on the overall podium at the Tour de France.

Geraint Thomas - (39) - Ineos

• 2024: 3rd@Giro

  • 1xGiro stage podium

• 2023: 2nd@Giro

  • 3xGiro stage podium

• 2022: 3rd@TdF

  • 1xTdF stage podium

• 2021: N/A

  • N/A

    • GC Totals: 3xGT overall podiums (1xTdF, 2xGiro)

    • Stage Totals: 4xGT total stage podiums

Simon Yates - (32) - Visma-Lease a Bike

• 2024: N/A

  • 2xTdF stage podiums

• 2023: 4th@TdF

  • 2xTdF stage podiums

• 2022: N/A

  • 2xGiro stage podiums (2xGiro stage win)

• 2021: 3rd@Giro

  • 2xGiro stage podiums (1xGiro stage win)

    • GC Totals: 1xGT overall podium (1xGiro), 1xTdF overall top five

    • Stage Totals: 3xGT stage wins (3xGiro), 8xGT stage podiums

Ben O’Connor - (29) - Jayco-AlUla

• 2024: 2nd@Vuelta, 4th @Giro

  • 2xVuelta stage podiums (1xVuelta stage win), 1xGiro stage podium

• 2023: N/A

  • 2xTdF stage podium

• 2022: 8th@Vuelta

  • N/A

• 2021: 4th@TdF

  • 1xTdF stage podium (1xTdF stage win)

    • GC Totals: 1xGT overall podium (1xVuelta), 1xTdF overall top five

    • Stage Totals: 2xGT stage wins (1xTdF, 1xVuelta), 6xGT total stage podiums

Mikel Landa - (35) - Soudal-QuickStep

• 2024: 5th@TdF

  • 1xVuelta stage podium

• 2023: 5th@Vuelta

  • N/A

• 2022: 3rd @Giro

  • N/A

• 2021: N/A

  • N/A

    • GC Totals: 1xGT overall podium (1xGiro), 1xTdF overall top five

    • Stage Totals: 1xGT total stage podium

Daniel Martínez - (28) - RedBull-Bora-Hansgrohe

• 2024: 2nd@Giro

  • 4xGiro stage podiums

• 2023: N/A

  • N/A

• 2022: N/A

  • N/A

• 2021: 5th@Giro

  • 1xGiro stage podium

    • GC Totals: 1xGT overall podiums (1xGiro)

    • Stage Totals: 4xGT total stage podiums

Carlos Rodriguez - (24) - Ineos 

• 2024: 7th@TdF

  • N/A

• 2023: 5th@TdF

  • 1xTdF stage podium (1xTdF stage win)

• 2022: 7th@Vuelta

  • N/A

• 2021: N/A

  • GC Totals: 1xTdF overall top five

  • Stage Totals: 1xGT stage win (1xTdF), 1xGT total stage podiums

Tier 5:
The sport’s elite young(ish) grand tour GC talent. Completely unproven as Grand Tour winners and lack the qualifications to land in Tiers 1-4, but all have an impressive collection of Grand Tour top tens and/or podiums, or one-week success, so far and will have great chances to finish on the podium, and perhaps even win, the 2025 Giro and/or Vuelta.

Juan Ayuso - UAE (22): 3rd@Vuelta 2022, 4th@Vuelta 2023
Matteo Jorgenson - Visma (25): 8th@TdF 2024, 1st@Paris-Nice 2024, 2nd@Dauphine 2024
Derek Gee - IPT (27): 9th@TdF, 3rd@Dauphine 2024
Florian Lipowitz - RedBull-Bora (24): 7th@Vuelta 2024, 3rd@Romandie 2024
Mattias Skjelmose - Lidl-Trek- (24): 5th@Vuelta 2024, 3rd@Suisse 2024, 3rd@Basque 2024, 4th@Paris-Nice 2024, 1st@Suisse 2023
Antonio Tiberi - Bahrain - Victorious (23): 5th@Giro 2024

Former Tier 5 Riders Who Missed Out in 2025
Thymen Arensman (24), on Ineos, failed to improve on his GC placings since his breakout 2022 season, and Cian Uijtdebroeks (22), on Visma, had a terrible 2024 after riding to a top ten placing at the 2023 Vuelta.

Qualifying Riders Left Out

Sepp Kuss - (30) - Visma-Lease a Bike

• 2024: N/A

• 2023: 1st@Vuelta

• 2022: N/A

• 2021: N/A

  • GC Totals: 1xVuelta overall win

  • Stage Totals: 2xGT stage wins (1xTdF, 1xVuelta), 5xGT total stage podiums

Jai Hindley - (28) - Bora

• 2024: N/A

• 2023: 7th@TdF

• 2022: 1st@Giro

• 2021: N/A

  • GC Totals: 1xGT overall win (1xGiro)

  • Stage Totals: 2xGT total stage wins, 4xGT total stage podiums

Egan Bernal - (28) - Ineos

• 2024: N/A

• 2023: N/A

• 2022: N/A

• 2021: 1st@Giro

  • Totals: 1xGiro win

Illustrating just how difficult it is to stay in the top tiers of grand tour GC contention, below are two consistent outside GC contenders and extremely high-quality riders whose recent Palmeres didn’t allow them to qualify for the tiers above.

• It may be somewhat shocking to see riders like Richard Carapaz and David Gaudu, who have finished in the top ten at the Tour de France two times in the last three seasons, didn’t qualify for any tier.

  • This could be seen as an overly harsh assessment, but it is a decent indicator of their low chance of winning the Grand Tour.

Richard Carapaz - (31) - EF

• 2024: 4th@Vuelta

• 2023: N/A

• 2022: 2nd@Giro

• 2021: 3rd@TdF

  • Podium Totals: 1xGiro runner-up, 1xVuelta runner-up, 1xTdF podium

David Gaudu - (28) - Groupama-FDJ

• 2024: 6th@Vuelta

• 2023: 9th@TdF

• 2022: 4th@TdF

• 2021: N/A

  • Podium Totals: N/A

Three Key Takeaways

1) The Top Grand Tour GC Talent Is Heavily Concentrated Within a Small Handful of Top Teams

• Tier breakdown by team:
  UAE: 4 (1xTier 1, 2xTier 3, 1xTier 5)
  Visma-Lease a Bike: 3 (1xTier 1, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5)
  RedBull-Bora: 3 (1xTier 2, 1xTier 4, 1xTier5)
  Ineos: 2 (2xTier 4)
  Soudal-QuickStep: 2 (1xTier 2, 1xTier 4)
  Movistar: 1 (1xTier 3)
  Jayco-Alula: 1 (1xTier 4)
  Israel-Premier Tech: 1 (1xTier 5)
  Lidl-Trek: 1 (1xTier 5)
  Bahrain-Victorious: 1 (1xTier 5)

• The major takeaway from this list is just how concentrated grand tour success is within a few teams and even just a handful of riders within those select teams.

  • In fact, despite there being 22 teams that consistently compete in the top-level races (18 WorldTour teams plus four second-division teams), only seven (32%) have Grand Tour GC contenders inside the top four tiers, and only ten (45%) have grand tour GC contenders that even qualify for the top five tiers of this exercise.

    • Further underlining this inequality, only three teams, Lidl-Trek, Bahrain, and IPT, have a rider in the up-and-coming 5th tier that doesn’t also have a rider in the four tiers above.

      • The top two tiers, comprising just four riders, Vingegaard, Pogačar, Evenepoel, and Roglič, have won 11 out of the 15 grand tours (73%), which shows just how strong the delineation is between the top tier and the rest of the field.

• While UAE is still poised to be far and away the top GC team in 2025, Visma’s position has noticeably improved from 2024.

  • Even just assuming slightly better health luck with their top stars, like Vingegaard and Van Aert, the rise of Matteo Jorgenson (Tier 5) as a bonafide podium contender at the Giro and Vuelta, and the quiet but savvy off-season acquisition of Simon Yates means they will be able to put forth a far more robust challenge to UAE in 2025 than they were in 2024.  

• Another non-UAE team that is quietly building an impressive potential challenger is RedBull-Bora-Hansgrohe, who, even after missing out on a signing Remco Evenepoel over the off-season, have three tiered riders, along with Jai Hindley, a non-tiered recent Grand Tour winner.  

  • If Roglič can hold his current form for another season, Martínez and Lipowitz can make a step up, and Hindley can get back on track, RedBull-Bora could contend for the win at multiple Grand Tours.

    • This is even more impressive when we consider that all signs are pointing to the team wanting to take another run at signing Remco Evenepoel between the 2025 and 2026 seasons.

2) The Sport’s Youth Takeover Is Actually Receding: While we seem to constantly hear about a youth invasion taking over the sport, it is worth noting that this trend has actually been receding in recent years, with the average age of the winners of the biggest races actually increasing.

• In fact, when we look at the above list, there is not a single rider under 25 in the top four tiers, which has an average age of 30 years old.

  • And, if we take the entire Tier 1-5 list into account, the average age is still just over 28 years of age.

• It is important to remember this when hearing that the career cycles of top stars are decreasing and that the top races will be won by a fresh wave of young stars as the former winners are quickly ushered out of the limelight.

  • Despite the stickiness of this idea, the data suggest that the opposite is true and that we will have an established class of stars winning the same events in the coming years as the up-and-coming talents struggle to break through.

3) The Gulf Between Tiers 2 & 3 is Massive and Potentially Currently Insurmountable: Highlighting just how wide the class divide has gotten in top-level stage racing, no rider below Tier 2 has won a Grand Tour in the last four seasons. 

• And, even in tier 3, two out of the three riders are on Pogačar’s UAE team, which means even if Pogačar were to suffer from bad luck or injury at a Grand Tour, they would be well-placed to challenge for the overall win. 

  • This shows just how steep the challenge is for any non-UAE team and what the teams without riders in the top two are up against.

• With this in mind, teams who aren’t UAE, Visma, RedBull-Bora, or Soudal-QuickStep will have to get incredibly creative with their stage racing tactics in 2025 or consider leaning into bunch sprints, stage hunting, or one-day Classics. 

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