2025 Tour de France Pre-Race Cheat Sheet
Breaking down all the need-to-know information as we head into the biggest race of the season
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This Saturday, the biggest cycling race in the world, the Tour de France, will kick off in France’s far north, with the city of Lille hosting the 112th Grand Départ. Breaking from the trend of the last few years, instead of jumping right into the mountains and GC proceedings, the 2025 Tour is taking its time, letting the sprinters and stage hunters duke it out over the opening stages on the windy, hilly terrain of Northern France, before getting into the mountains in the second and third weeks. However, even if the opening week course doesn’t pop from a GC perspective on paper, it does hold plenty of traps for overall contenders, and the hard-fought and fast stages will almost certainly produce crashes and splits in the crosswinds that rule out at least one major pre-race favorite.
This more traditional format means that as the sport’s three best sprinters, Jasper Philipsen, Jonathan Milan, and Tim Merlier contend with Classics superstars like Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel for stage wins on the flat-to-hilly terrain of the first week, the top GC contenders will have to approach the first nine stages with a clear-headed intensity, recognizing that they are as, if not even more, critical for their GC campaign than the major set pieces looming later in the Tour.
These opening stage win battles, combined with yet another looming GC showdown between the sport’s two stage race titans, Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard, who have won the last five Tours between them, will produce plenty of thrilling racing over the next three weeks (which will be broken down in detail daily for premium subscribers of this newsletter).
BTP Tour de France Fantasy League Info:
Link: VeloGames
League Name: BeyondthePeloton_Tour2025
League Code: 948245225
Check out a course detail deep dive and three initial takeaways below:
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2025 Tour de France Route Overview:
2025 Tour de France Full Stage List
Stage 1: Lille Métropole>Lille Métropole (185km)-flat
Stage 2: Lauwin-Planque>Boulogne-sur-Mer (212km)-hilly w/uphill finish
Stage 3: Valenciennes>Dunkerque (178km)-flat
Stage 4: Amiens Métropole>Rouen (173km)-hilly
Stage 5: Caen>Caen (33km)-individual time trial
Stage 6: Bayeux>Vire Normandie (201km)-hilly w/uphill finish
Stage 7: Saint-Malo>Mûr-de-Bretagne Guerlédan (194km)-hilly w/uphill finish
Stage 8: Saint-Méen-le-Grand>Laval Espace Mayenne (174km)-flat
Stage 9: Chinon>Châteauroux (170km)-flat
Stage 10: Ennezat>Le Mont-Dore Puy de Sancy (163km)-mountains w/summit finish
July 15th: Rest Day #1 in Toulouse
Stage 11: Toulouse>Toulouse (154km)-flat
Stage 12: Auch>Hautacam (181km)-mountains w/summit finish
Stage 13: Loudenvielle>Peyragudes (11km)-individual time trial w/summit finish
Stage 14: Pau>Luchon-Superbagnères (183km)-mountains w/summit finish
Stage 15: Muret>Carcassonne (169km)-hilly
July 21st: Rest Day #2 in Montpellier
Stage 16: Montpellier>Mont Ventoux (172km)-mountains w/summit finish
Stage 17: Bollène>Valence (161km)-flat
Stage 18: Vif>Courchevel Col de la Loze (171km)-mountains w/summit finish
Stage 19: Albertville>La Plagne (130km)-mountains w/summit finish
Stage 20: Nantua>Pontarlier (185km)-hilly
Stage 21: Mantes-la-Ville>Paris Champs-Élysées (120km)-flat
Breakdown by Stage Type:
7 mountain stages*
7 summit finishes
1 time trial
7 flat(ish) stages
6 hilly stages
3 uphill finishes
2 time trials
44 total kilometers
11 climbing kilometers
*The total above amounts to 22 since the second time trial is also counted as a mountain stage
Individual Time Trial Kilometers
The course includes two individual time trials for a total of 44 kilometers, which is below average for recent editions.
With 11 of those kilometers taking place on a mountain pass, this leaves little room for flat time trial specialists to build up an advantage on superior climbers like Pogačar and Vingegaard.
Vertical Meters Gained
With 48,777 meters of climbing (for an average of roughly 2,322m/7,600ft of elevation gain per stage), the 2025 route is slightly ‘easier’ than recent editions through the full three weeks, but this is mostly due to the large amount of time spent in the flatlands in the north of the country, which compresses the climbs into the later-half of the course.
In fact, if we account for the low number of flat time trial kilometers, the 2025 Tour is incredibly climb-focused and scores relatively high on the BTP course difficulty rating, despite a low total vertical meter gain.
Past Winner List, Specialty & Course Difficulty Rating:
2010: Alberto Contador, climber, 8.32
2011: Cadel Evans, hybrid climber/time trialist, 11.98
2012: Bradley Wiggins, time trialist, 5.03
2013: Chris Froome, hybrid climber/time trialist, 7.8
2014: Vincenzo Nibali, climber, 9.41
2015: Chris Froome, hybrid climber/time trialist, 34.7
2016: Chris Froome, hybrid climber/time trialist, 9.88
2017: Chris Froome, hybrid climber/time trialist, 13.27
2018: Geraint Thomas, hybrid climber/time trialist, 15.48
2019: Egan Bernal, climber, 19.36
2020: Tadej Pogačar, hybrid climber/time trialist, 16.36
2021: Tadej Pogačar, hybrid climber/time trialist, 8.90
2022: Jonas Vingegaard, hybrid climber/time trialist, 9.22
2023: Jonas Vingegaard, hybrid climber/time trialist 25.4
2024: Tadej Pogačar, hybrid climber/time trialist, 9.0
2025: ?, 14.7While this is an interesting prism in which to look at the course ratings, it is important to note that the rise of Pogačar, who is good across all disciplines, and Vingegaard, who can both climb and time trial at a level superior to almost any other rider, means that they would be the heavy favorites no matter the course.
Three Key Course Takeaways
1) The more traditional course format will significantly increase the tension, and stakes, of the first week: After years of neglect, the cycling-mad northwest of the country, Hauts-de-France, Normandy, and Brittany, are heavily featured, and the significant amount of time spent up north will mean lots of tough racing on small roads in windy conditions with punchy climbs through the first Rest Day.
This has the potential to throw a wrench into the spokes of even the most well-planned GC campaign, and, in theory, means that the top favorites, Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar, could start the mountain stages with a time deficit built up during this period.
With Pogačar being one of the world’s best one-day Classics riders, and with both him and Vingegaard having extremely strong support squads capable of keeping them positioned near the front, chances are that any chaotic racing will benefit them and penalize their competition.
Also, while this opening may look like a slow-roll, the “easier” terrain actually adds an increased level of difficulty since it means that the racing will be incredibly fast and chaotic, due to a larger number of riders being able to contend for the win, meaning almost the entire peloton will be attempting to ride in the first few spots in the bunch.
2) One oddity of this delayed-GC course design is that, counterintuitively, it has the potential to create an anticlimactic battle for the overall: While Stage 5 technically serves up a GC set piece with a 33-kilometer time trial, the top three GC contenders, Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Remco Evenepoel, are all great time trialists, and any time gaps will likely be small (just like the Stage 7 time trial in 2024), which means that the first significant GC set piece isn’t likely to come until the Stage 12 finish on Hautacam.
One byproduct of this format is that the GC essentially starts on Stage 12 and could very well be wrapped up by Stage 18, if not as early as the Stage 13 mountain time trial.
Add in the fact that the sheer number of uphill finishes (10) means the potential for Pogačar to rack up an early advantage through the classics-esque opening nine stages and mountain time trial could end up being his best form of defense against an incredibly strong Visma-Lease a Bike team.
After all, if Pogačar exits Stage 13 with a sizable advantage, Visma won’t be able to leverage their multi-leader lineup (since those non-Vingegaard leaders will presumably be too far behind at this point to be a threat), and isolating Pogačar, who will just need to follow Vingegaard’s wheel at that point, won’t be particularly concerning to him or his UAE team.
And, one major point that is being glossed over when discussing Visma’s ability to challenge Pogačar with their strong team is that Pogačar is coming into the race with an incredibly strong UAE team that potentially has an even greater chance of producing multiple GC contenders that Visma will have to work to control.
3) The key mountain stages feature multiple climbs where Jonas Vingegaard has dropped Tadej Pogačar in the recent past: If the prospect of the GC battle being over inside a week, one thing that should give hope that the 2025 edition of the race may not be a simple Pogačar cakewalk is that the course includes two summit finishes at places on the extremely small list of sites where Tadej Pogačar has been dropped. This is likely not an accident and is ASO’s attempt at serving up terrain where Pogačar can be theoretically challenged.
Mont Ventoux Stage 16: Vingegaard distanced Pogačar on the slopes of Mont Ventoux in 2021 before Pogačar leveraged his superior descending to catch back on during the descent.
Col de la Loze Stage 18: Even though they tackle the climb from the ‘easier’ Courchevel side, Stage 18 will finish on the monster climb, which tops out at 2,300m/7600ft, where Vingegaard hit Pogačar with a knockout blow in the 2023 edition of the race.
In addition, Stage 18, which goes over the massive Col du Glandon and Col de la Madeleine before finishing atop Loze, is one of the hardest days in modern Tour de France history, as judged by the total vertical meters gained.
However, while this historical information is interesting, and potentially bodes well for Vingegaard, the fact that Pogačar proved in 2024 that when fit, he is the sport’s best high-mountain climber, it is entirely possible that his days of being vulnerable on ultra-high kilojoule days on high-altitude climbs may be over and he won’t be as easily shaken on these climbs in 2025.
This isn’t to say Visma-Lease a Bike shouldn’t try, after all, as Stage 11 of last year’s Tour showed us, even at the peak of his powers, Pogačar can suffer from underfueling and off days, and these high mountain stages are the prime place to test him.
Who Will Win?
While there is a wealth of incredibly talented riders at this Tour, there is a clear line of demarcation between the two riders who have won the past five editions, Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard, and the rest. In reality, if they stay upright in the opening week, it is safe to assume that the 2025 edition will see yet another GC showdown between the sport’s top two stage racers, Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar.
While Remco Evenepoel has the potential to be the best of the rest once again, the 2024 season showed us that in order to challenge for the sport’s biggest victories when Pogačar is present, massive performance improvements must be made before he can match Vingegaard and Pogačar on the climbs, and his performances at stages races so far in 2025 tell us that those gains have not been made.
In fact, judging by their performances at the key Tour preparation races in June, Evenepoel isn’t on the same form as Pogačar’s teammate João Almeida, or even RedBull-Bora-hansgrohe’s breakout young GC star Florian Lipowitz, and will have to ride a flawless race to be in contention for the podium.
Serious Overall Win Contenders:
Tadej Pogačar (TdF Winner 2020, 2021, 2024)
Jonas Vingegaard (TdF Winner 2022, 2023)
Select Overall Podium Challengers
João Almeida (TdF 4th place 2024)
Remco Evenepoel (TdF 3rd place 2024)
Primož Roglič (TdF 2nd place 2020)
Matteo Jorgenson (TdF 8th place 2024)
Florian Lipowitz (1st career TdF start)
BTP Picks:
Overall Win: Tadej Pogačar
Points Jersey Winner: Jonathan Milan
KOM Jersey Winner: Tadej Pogačar
Where/How to Watch
When: Saturday, July 5th-Sunday, July 27th, 6:30am(ish)-11:00am(ish) ET
How: Peacock (USA), Flobikes (Canada), Discovery+/Eurosport/Max/TNT Sports (UK, Ireland, Europe)
Will there be a BTP velogames challenge?
Great intro! Okay, as a fellow sports bettor, why do you think Milan for the Green? Some might say, he's fighting Pog on this one...