Giro d'Italia: Final Rest Day Reflections
Giro d'Italia: Final Rest Day Reflections
Breaking down where the GC contenders have won/lost time so far during a one-sided Giro d'Italia, and what it means for the race's final week
Coming off the last few days of the traditional Grand Tour second-week lull, Tadej Pogačar took advantage of two critical back-to-back stages, a time trial on Saturday and a massive mountain stage on Sunday, to blow open his lead in the General Classification (GC) standings and drive home the point that this is a one-rider affair while opening up a historically massive 6’41 gap to second place Geraint Thomas and 6’56 to third place Dani Martínez.
Take a look at how we got here and what awaits in the coming days below:
Current Top Ten GC Standings:
1) Tadej Pogačar (UAE) +0
2) Geraint Thomas (Ineos) +6’41
3) Dani Martínez (Bora-hansgrohe) +6’56
4) Ben O’Connor (Decathlon AG2R) +7’43
5) Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain) +9’26
6) Thymen Arensman (Ineos) +9’45
7) Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL) +10’49
8) Filippo Zana (Jayco-AlUla) +11’11
9) Einer Rubio (Movistar) +12’13
10) Jan Hirt (Soudal-QuickStep) +13’11
Time Changes Between Top Four Since First Rest Day
Tadej Pogačar +0
Geraint Thomas -3’43
Ben O’Connor -4’04
Dani Martínez -4’16
Catch Up Quick (become a premium member to receive daily stage breakdowns):
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Stage 6
Stage 7
Stage 8
Stage 9
First Rest Day
Stage 10
Stage 11
Stage 12
Stage 13
Stage 14
Stage 15
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Where Time Has Been Won/Lost So Far
To discern how the GC race will play out in the coming weeks, let’s look at where each of the top four took or lost time so far. I’ve isolated every stage where the top three have won/lost time relative to each other so far and how much time they won(+) or lost(-).
Stage 1 Hills
Pogacar +0
Martínez -14
Thomas -14
O’Connor -14
Stage 2 Summit Finish
Pogacar +0
Martínez -31
Thomas -31
O’Connor -1’10
Stage 3 Sprint Finish
Pogačar +0
Thomas -1
Martínez -2
O’Connor -2
Stage 7 Time Trial
Pogačar +0
Martínez -1’48
Thomas -1’59
O’Connor -2’06
Stage 8 Summit Finish
Pogačar +0
Martínez -4
O’Connor -6
Thomas -12
Stage 11 Sprint Finish
Thomas +0
Pogačar -2
Martínez -2
O’Connor -2
Stage 14 Individual Time Trial
Pogačar +0
Thomas -45
O’Connor -56
Martínez -1’16
Stage 15 Summit Finish
Pogačar +0
Martínez -3’00
Thomas -3’00
O’Connor -3’08
Course Type Where Time Was Won/Lost Relative to Pogačar
When looking at the course types where the other major GC riders have won/lost time relative to Tadej Pogačar, we continue to see absolute dominance, with the gaps spread roughly evenly between time trials and mountain stages, and, just like the first day, no other GC contender has taken a single second on Pogačar through any subset of the course up until this point. This balanced dominance across the entire course is extremely rare and speaks to just how much of a higher level Pogačar is at than his GC competition. Additionally, it makes challenging his lead incredibly difficult since there is no type of course or stage where any other contender has any advantage.
Time Trials
Thomas -2’44 (lost)
O’Connor -3’02 (lost)
Martínez -3’04 (lost)
Mountain Stages
Martínez -3’28 (lost)
Thomas -3’30 (lost)
O’Connor -4’09 (lost)
Summit Finishes
Martínez -3’28 (lost)
Thomas -3’30 (lost)
O’Connor -4’09 (lost)
Time Bonuses
Martínez -24 (lost)
Thomas -27 (lost)
O’Connor -32 (lost)
Key Takeaways
1) Tadej Pogacar Is Capable of Taking Time Whenever & Wherever He Wants: As the race leader extends his lead on nearly every feature present on the course, it is becoming increasingly apparent that barring a severe crash or illness, Pogačar will continue to extend his lead as the race goes on and that he will go on to win the race by a staggering margin.
Pogačar’s second rest day lead is the largest in the modern history of the race, with Alberto Contador’s 4’20 lead over Michele Scarponi on the second rest day in the 2011 edition as the only comparable lead in the last 30 years of the race (Contador would go on to win by 6’10).
This massive lead might seem surprising, but it makes complete sense when we look at the facts. When you can take time on every part of the course, and none of your rivals are stronger on any course type, and as such, can’t take time at any point, you tend to build up a large lead.
2) The Rest of the GC Contenders Have Smartly Given Up Challenging for the Win: Due to Pogačar’s dominance, his GC rivals know that any attempt to challenge Pogačar’s lead by having their team increase the pace to attack him or attempt an early-stage ambush is not only futile but actually against their interests.
For example, if Geraint Thomas would have had his strong Ineos team hard-pace the climbs on yesterday’s stage to ‘soften up’ Pogačar, not only would it have failed to handicap the race leader, it would have only served to hurt Thomas and Ineos since it would have meant that when Pogačar eventually attacked, Thomas would have been more fatigued and likely not had a teammate or group of contenders with him, which would have allowed Pogačar to open an even larger gap.
Pundits and fans tend to want the rest of the GC contenders to attack or press the pace to topple a dominant rival, but it is important to remember that hard-pacing and attacking only helps if you are equal to or stronger than said rival, or at least have a group of riders equal to their level who can launch attack after attack that the leader feels they have to respond to, which can leave them vulnerable later in the stage (see: Stage 11 of the 2022 Tour de France).
Even if Pogačar’s rivals banded together to attack him over and over again, he could simply increase the pace to the point where he could ride clear of these attackers and punish them for their increase in pace by taking even more time than if they hadn’t overextended themselves with attacks.
In fact, instead of attacking or ambushing Pogačar, his GC rivals are better served riding incredibly conservatively in his wheel while his UAE team sets pace day after day, hoping to keep the time gaps as small when Pogačar does eventually attack and solely focus on being in second place.
With the chances of dropping Pogačar by minutes when he suddenly has a bad day at or near 0%, his rivals are increasing their chance of eventual victory if they focus on riding into second place since the odds of Pogačar crashing out of the race or falling ill enough he either has to withdraw are much higher than the former.
Even with the rest of the best in the GC competition (smartly) conceding any direct challenge of Pogačar, there is a decently interesting jostle for the remaining podium spots.
Current Time Gaps Between 2nd-4th Place:
Thomas +0Martínez +15
O’Connor +1’02
3) The Poor Final Week Weather Will Be Pogačar’s Biggest Test Yet: With four of the last six remaining stages serving up, at least compared to Sunday, relatively mild mountain stages, opportunities for stage hunters are likely to open up in the final week. However, this journey into the Dolomites in the far Northeast of the country will come with a significant turn in the weather, with the next few days bringing traditional Giro mountain stage weather, which is rain with cold temperatures, with a potential for snow on higher passes.
In theory, these mountain stages should simplify the task facing Pogačar and UAE since the rhythm of a higher mountain pass to start the stage, followed by a long valley and a few climbs before the finish, should allow them to let a breakaway ride clear to contest the win.
And, if the weather gets bad enough and takes out some of the higher climbs (there are talks of neutralizing tomorrow’s climb of the Umbrail Pass due to snow), they should just be able to keep the pace high before Pogačar wins the uphill run to the finish.
But, if the weather is bad, but not bad enough to cause high passes to be pulled from the route, Pogačar will have to navigate multiple tough descents in the cold and rain.
With a serious crash or illness being the only thing between him and an eventual win, this is certainly something to watch in the next few stages.
Stage 16 Preview
Tomorrow’s Stage 16, a journey from the Italian Alps to the Dolomites, forces the peloton to tackle another 200+km stage with over 4,000 meters (13,500ft) of climbing.
Assuming the early ascent of the Umbrail Pass is kept in the route (it may be pulled due to snow), I expect UAE to take advantage of the massive climb (which passes the highest point of this year’s Giro) and extremely long valley afterward to let the early breakaway get clear to contest the stage while they play defense in the GC group behind.
But if the Umbrail Pass is removed or neutralized, look for UAE to control the peloton through the valley and deliver Pogačar to another stage win at Monte Pana above Selva (Wolkenstein in Gröden).
When reconning this stage back in August, my biggest takeaway, outside of the length of the opening climb and the ensuing valley, was how deceptively steep and difficult some of the final thirty kilometers are.
With riders likely still feeling extremely fatigued from Sunday’s Queen Stage, look for some fringe podium contenders to test their rivals’ legs coming off the rest day.
Prediction: Poor weather scuttles the formation of the early breakaway with the peloton forced to jump into team buses and drive down to the base of the descent of the Umbrail Pass. The breakaway can’t build up a large enough in the massive, net-downhill valley to hold off the GC contenders on the climb up the lower slopes of the Schlern and technical descent into Val Gardena, which means Tadej Pogačar is teed up perfectly for yet another stage win.