Giro d'Italia: First Rest Day Reflections

Breaking down where the GC contenders have won/lost time so far during an aggressively-raced Giro d'Italia, and what it means for the remainder of the race

After an eventful opening nine days of racing, it is clear that the GC competition at the 2024 Giro d’Italia, at least at this point, is a one-rider affair and that Tadej Pogačar is head-and-shoulders ahead of the rest of the field. The evidence for this statement is that he hasn’t ceded a single second to another GC contender at any point during the race over any type of terrain and has already built up a 2’40 GC advantage that would be the largest margin of victory if the race were stopped today since the 2014 edition. However, the battle for the remaining podium spots is ultra-competitive, with the margin between Dani Martínez in second place and Jan Hirt in 10th being smaller than the margin between Martínez in second and Pogačar in first.

Let’s take a look at how we got here:

GC Top Ten:
1) Tadej Pogačar (UAE) +0
2) Dani Martínez (Bora) +2’40
3) Geraint Thomas (Ineos) +2’58
4) Ben O’Connor (Decathlon AG2R) +3’39
5) Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma-LAB) +4’02
6) Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain) +4’23
7) Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana) +5’15
8) Einer Rubio (Movistar) +5’28
9) Thymen Arensman (Ineos) +5’30
10) Jan Hirt (Soudal-QuickStep) +5’53

Catch Up Quick (become a premium member to receive daily stage breakdowns):
Stage 1: Jhonatan Narváez wins from elite front group
Stage 2: Tadej Pogačar solo summit finish attack
Stage 3: Tim Merlier wins bunch sprint
Stage 4: Jonathan Milan wins bunch sprint
Stage 5: Benjamin Thomas wins from breakaway
Stage 6: Pelayo Sánchez wins from breakaway
Stage 7: Tadej Pogačar wins time trial
Stage 8: Tadej Pogačar wins summit finish from small group
Stage 9: Olav Kooij wins bunch sprint

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Where Time Has Been Won/Lost So Far

To discern how the GC race will play out in the coming weeks, let’s look at where each of the top four took or lost time so far. I’ve isolated every stage where the top three have won/lost time relative to each other so far and how much time they won(+) or lost(-).

Stage 1 Hills
Pogacar +0
Martínez -14
Thomas -14
O’Connor -14

Stage 2 Summit Finish
Pogacar +0
Martínez -31
Thomas -31
O’Connor -1’10

Stage 3 Sprint Finish
Pogačar +0
Thomas -1
Martínez -2
O’Connor -2

Stage 7 Time Trial
Pogačar +0
Martínez -1’48
Thomas -1’59
O’Connor -2’06

Stage 8 Summit Finish
Pogačar +0
Martínez -4
O’Connor -6
Thomas -12

Course Type Where Time Was Won/Lost Relative to Pogačar

When looking at the course types where the other major GC riders have won/lost time relative to Tadej Pogačar, we see a picture of absolute dominance, with no other GC contender taking a single second on Pogačar through any subset of the course up until this point. The fact that the remaining two weeks feature more of all three of these course types doesn’t bode particularly well for anyone looking to challenge Pogačar.

Time Trials
Martínez -1’48 (lost)
Thomas -1’59 (lost)
O’Connor -2’06 (lost)

Mountain Stages
Martínez -35 (lost)
Thomas -43 (lost)
O’Connor -1’16 (lost)

• Summit Finishes
  Martínez -35 (lost)
  Thomas -43 (lost)
  O’Connor -1’16 (lost)

Time Bonuses
Martínez -14 (lost)
Thomas -19 (lost)
O’Connor -22 (lost)

Key Takeaways

1) Pogačar running away with this Giro: After looking at his sizable overall lead, the data above, or simply just viewing a stage, it seems difficult to make a case for any other GC contender challenging Tadej Pogačar for the race win.

• To find an overall margin of victory greater than his current lead of 2’40, built after just nine days of racing, we have to go back a decade to 2014 (won by Nairo Quintana, who is anonymously racing in this edition).

  • Total Margin of Victory at Giro:

    2024 (current lead): 160 seconds
    2023: 14 seconds
    2022: 78 seconds
    2021: 89 seconds
    2020: 39 seconds
    2019: 65 seconds
    2018: 46 seconds
    2017: 31 seconds
    2016: 52 seconds
    2015: 113 seconds
    2014: 178 seconds

• We aren’t supposed to say this in sports, and especially cycling, but outside of an illness or serious crash, Pogačar will go on to win this race for the simple reason that no other GC rider is better than him on any sub-set of the course.

  • Furthermore, these other contenders know this, which means they will cluster on his wheel, fight for the crumbs of finishing on the same time, and hope their podium rivals are distanced.

2) The Battle For the Podium is Extremely Competitive: If the race for the win is all but decided, the push for the podium is the exact opposite, with five riders all within two minutes of Martínez in second place.

• If we took Pogačar out of this race, we’d be looking at fairly tight time gaps between 1st and 6th that would reflect the small overall time gaps that have become commonplace at the Giro in recent times:

  • Time Gaps Between 2nd-6th:
    Martínez +0
    Thomas +18
    O’Connor +59
    Uijtdebroeks +1’22
    Tiberi +1’43

• But, while the fight for the podium may be close right now, Dani Martínez and Ben O’Connor have looked the best of the rest in recent days and would be my pick to eventually round out the podium.

  • Counting out Geraint Thomas can be a fruitless pastime, but after he looked unusually off in Friday’s time trial, Saturday’s Stage 8, which offered up a laboratory-esque steady pace on the final climb, showed Thomas is just very slightly off the pace of Martínez and O’Connor on the type of high-speed, steady grade final climbs we will see for the remainder of this race.

  • One other rider to watch in terms of a podium challenge is Antonio Tiberi. The 22-year-old Italian was a bit of an unknown GC quantity coming into this race but who is lurking in 6th place and should be considered a contender for the podium since, he is only 1’43 behind Martínez after losing over two minutes after flatting at a critical moment of Stage 2.

    • Since then, he has been able to match them and was even one of the best GC riders in the Stage 7 time trial.

3) A Few Sprinters’ Teams May Need to Change Their Strategy: This Giro features what could be the best lineup of sprinters at any Grand Tour this season, which means that there is certain to be big-name sprinters and teams left without a win if they continue to compete straight up against the elite faster.

• Even with the sprint victories being spread around to three different riders through the first rest day, one wonders if a team like Alpecin-Deceuninck would be better served racing slightly more aggressively by getting riders like Quinten Hermans up the road in some of the late-forming breakaways we’ve seen at this race instead of going all-in on pitting Kaden Groves against high-powered, high-speed specialists like Tim Merlier and Jonathan Milan.

  • This would also have the added effect of making the race harder and forcing rival sprint trains to burn riders controlling the move, which, in turn, would help Groves win sprints if the group is caught.

Stage 10 Preview

Tomorrow’s Stage 10 takes the peloton from its southern-most point of this year’s Giro d’Italia and begins its journey back north when it departs Pompeï and heads up to a summit finish at Bocca della Selva in the Southern Apennines.

• While the prospect of a summit finish directly out of a rest day may elicit thoughts of thrilling racing, the opening of the stage, which features nearly 50 kilometers of flat before the day’s first climb, which means the breakaway likely won’t be made up of riders who can stay clear on the final climb, will rule out any long-range raids from GC contenders, and will likely be centered more around the race for the points jerseys and intermediate sprints.

• The long, steady nature of the final climb means we will likely see UAE setting a hard pace, as we saw back on Stage 8. This will catch out a few GC contenders who struggle to hold pace due to their body not responding well to a day of rest, but likely won’t see much more than Pogačar slowly increasing his lead via a short sprint and potentially stage win time bonuses.

• Prediction: Tadej Pogačar wins his fourth stage of the Giro d’Italia after his UAE team mows down the early breakaway on the long final climb, and he once again outsprints the competition to check the box on his daily intensity interval and increases his overall lead while investing just a few hundred meters of all-out riding.