Key Takeaways: Giro d'Italia Stage 14

Breaking down how the Giro's second time trial produced an impressive stage victory and set the stage for the GC battle looming in the high mountains

Filippo Ganna flexed his ability to put more raw power into the pedals than anyone else in the peloton when he unleashed a scorching ride to win Stage 14 of the 2024 Giro d’Italia. The stage, which featured a 31-kilometer time trial with a tougher-than-expected course that tested both riders’ fitness levels and technical skills while finishing along the glistening shores of Lake Garda in Northern Italy, saw Tadej Pogačar, just like in the last race against the clock, was the only rider able to break into the Ineos phalanx at the top of the results, with an impressive runner-up performance that saw him continue to extend his already substantial race lead. Behind, Thymen Arensman continued his climb up the GC standings with a strong ride to third place on the stage, while the overall podium potentially began to take shape with Geraint Thomas moving into second place overall and Dani Martínez limiting his losses enough to remain in the top three.

Stage 14 Top Five:
1) Filippo Ganna (Ineos) +0
2) Tadej Pogačar (UAE) +29
3) Thymen Arensman (Ineos) +1’07
4) Geraint Thomas (Ineos) +1’14
5) Luke Plapp (Jayco-AlUla) +1’18

Time Top Ten GC Contenders Gained(+)/Lost(-) On the Stage:
Pogačar +0
Arensman -38
Thomas -45
Tiberi -50
O’Connor -56
Martínez -1’16
Zana -2’03
Baudin -2’18
Bardet -2’55
Fortunato -3’21

Current Top Ten GC Standings:
1) Tadej Pogačar (UAE) +0
2) Geraint Thomas (Ineos) +3’41
3) Dani Martínez (Bora) +3’56
4) Ben O’Connor (Decathlon AG2R) +4’35
5) Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain) +5’17
6) Thymen Arensman (Ineos) +6’30
7) Filippo Zana (Jayco-AlUla) +7’26
8) Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL) +7’52
9) Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana) +8’40
10) Alex Baudin (Decathlon AG2R) +8’56

Stage 14 Race Notebook

BTP is seamlessly following every twist and turn of the 2024 Giro d’Italia with the fantastic Tour Tracker app (iPhone/Android/Web)

Magnus Sheffield
20.8km: The 22-year-old American is flying and looks to be on pace for another stage podium finish.

However, due to taking big risks with some extreme angles through corners, Sheffield goes down after hitting some white paint with his bike significantly leaning over. Outside of ruining his stage chances, this leaves Ineos down a key pacemaker heading into the hardest stage of the race on Sunday.

Filippo Ganna
26km-to-go: The big Italian flies through the opening section of the course, blowing by his competition and setting the fastest times at every checkpoint.

Finish: Using a slight downhill, his massive size, and his aerodynamic position to clock a 58km/hr average speed for the final section of the course, Ganna comes through with a time that can only be challenged by Tadej Pogačar.

Geraint Thomas
23.4km (1st time check): Thomas comes through the first time check already 11 seconds down on Ganna, and equal with his teammate Thymen Arensman.

Finish: After a disappointing slight downhill section where he lost time to Arensman and was a full 3km/hr slower than Ganna, Thomas comes over the finish line 1’14 behind Ganna and seven seconds behind his teammate Arensman.

Pogačar
23.4km (1st time check): The race leader comes through the flat, to slightly uphill, opening 7.5kms four seconds ahead of Ganna.

7.8km (2nd time check): However, through the slightly downhill second 15kms, he loses 14 seconds to Ganna, while continuing to take time on every GC contender.

2.5km: On the extremely fast final kilometers to the finish line, Pogačar is still outperforming every GC contender, but he is pushing slightly fewer watts (380w average) than the opening section and is losing time to Ganna.

Finish: Pogačar crosses the finish line in second place, 29 seconds behind Ganna. He lost 19 seconds in just the final 8.5 km but took significant time on his GC rivals.

Key Takeaways

1) Tadej Pogacar & Filippo Ganna Both Produced Winning Rides Today: The stage created an odd dynamic. Both the first and second-place finishes won, in a sense, with the 27-year-old stage winner bagging a well-deserved, clinically executed, and, frankly, much-needed stage win and the race leader proving yet again that he is the most well-rounded cyclist in the sport with a world-class time trial performance amid a flawless three-week performance.

• Today’s win will have served as a massive relief to Ganna, who had failed to win a Giro stage since winning six stages in his home Grand Tour from 2020-2021.

  • So today’s victory ends this drought and shows that he is coming into great form heading into this summer’s Olympic games.

• Meanwhile, even though Pogačar missed out on a second time trial victory of this Tour, he will be happy with his performance since the course, while more technical and demanding than it appeared on paper, lacked the same uphill feature that allowed him to mow down Ganna inside the final few kilometers back on Stage 7, and the fact that he continued to blow open the time gap between him and the rest of the GC contenders.

  • This means that in six out of six Stages with significant GC time gaps, Pogačar has extended his lead over the others.

2) Ganna’s Raw Power Was the Difference in the Stage Win Duel: An interesting dynamic during the 31-kilometer time trial was where and how the time gap between the two riders changed.

• While both riders flew over the course in just over 35 minutes (53km/hr or 32mph), Pogaćar gained time (4s) on Ganna through the more difficult opening 7.5kms, with an average speed of 48.8km/hr, before shipping back 14s on the much-faster following 15kms, where Ganna averaged 53.9 km/hr. He then got demolished over the extremely fast final 8.5kms, where he lost 19s as Ganna averaged 58km/hr.

  • Time Gained Per Section:
    7.5km (1st check): 48.97km/hr avg speed & Pogačar takes .5 seconds per km
    22.5km (2nd check): 53.9km/hr avg speed & Ganna takes .94 seconds per km
    31km (finish): 58.2km/hr avg speed & Ganna takes 2.2 seconds per km

    • Ganna’s larger size, high raw power output, and massive gears (64t front chainring) allowed him to take advantage of the slight downhill and higher speeds for the race's second half to bury Pogačar.

3) This Flat Time Trial Held Plenty of Clues About What to Expect in the Looming Mountain Stages: Outside of showing once again that Tadej Pogačar is simply a cut above the rest of the GC contenders at this race and that he is likely to continue to extend his lead as the course gets harder, and favors his superior physical abilities even more in the final week, the stage highlighted a few notable things about the rest of the GC.

• Even though Pogačar is riding clear with the overall, five riders (Arensman, Thomas, Tiberi, O’Connor, Martínez), all finished within 1’16 of Pogačar today in the TT.

  • Considering the sixth, Filippo Zana, finished nearly as far behind the fifth GC contender (Martínez) finished behind Pogačar, we are likely safe assuming the fight for the two remaining podium places will be between those top five.

    • It may sound odd since, at first glance, a ‘flat’ TT may seem untethered to long mountain passes, but the energy output required is incredibly similar, which means today’s stage gave us a good clue as to who will perform well in the mountain stages to come.

• Behind the clustered trio of Thomas, Martínez, and O’Connor, Antonio Tiberi and Thymen Arensman are intriguing, considering how well they have performed since losing minutes in the opening weekend due to mechanical/preparation issues.

  • Arensman, in particular, is an interesting case since this is the second time at this Giro that he has been the first GC contender behind Pogačar, and, with him moving up into contention for a top-five finish (and without a contract for the upcoming season), it could complicate Ineos’ plan to leverage their strong team to press Pogačar since Arensman will like his chances at a high overall finish, and may even considering himself the stronger of the two Ineos GC contenders.

Stage 15 Preview

Tomorrow’s 15th stage, at 222 kilometers long and with nearly 19,000 feet (5700m) of vertical gain, is the longest, and likely the hardest, stage of this Giro d’Italia. Considering this is significantly tougher than the mountain stages we’ve seen up to this point and that the top GC contenders all went all-out today in the TT, we could see big gaps finally open in the battle for the overall podium.

• However, while some fans, and potentially even some GC contenders, may be imagining the race getting more challenging for race leader Tadej Pogačar as the ‘real’ mountain stages arrive, in my opinion, this will only make things easier for Pogačar since he is the strongest climber in the race and can rely on this even if he is isolated late in the race.

  • Additionally, the long, more controllable climbs (ride medium hard for 20-40 minutes per climb throughout the day before dropping Pogačar off with Majka on the final climb) and the GC clustering from 2nd to 4th, which means that there should be plenty of teams and rider willing to set tempo to control attacks, should combine to give UAE a fairly straightforward task of defending the race lead.

• Assuming Pogačar’s UAE team is willing to play things safe and let a sizeable breakaway ride clear to contest the stage, the big question is whether Ineos will take up the pacemaking duties to press Thomas’ and Arensman’s GC contenders.

  • If they do, we could see a GC shootout on the massively long climb to Livigno.

• Prediction: With Tadej Pogačar’s UAE team willing to sit back and defend, Ineos comes forward to take up the pace in an attempt to leverage Geraint Thomas and Thymen Arensman’s superior sustained power over the rest of the podium contenders. With a good chunk of the final 85kms uphill, Ineos’ high pace eats up the early breakaway’s gap and sees the main GC group contest the stage win, allowing Tadej Pogačar to sprint clear for the stage.

  • BTP’s Picks: Pogačar at +100 to win & Tratnik at +5000 to win