Key Takeaways: Strade Bianche 2025

Breaking down how Tadej Pogačar shrugged off a high-speed crash to continue his incredible run of one-day victories & how it highlights the rapidly changing dynamics in the sport

Across the stunning Tuscan landscape, a crash-battered and bloodied Tadej Pogačar leveraged the unforgiving, and endless, white gravel climbs to continue his rampage through the sport’s top races after riding clear of Q36.5’s Tom Pidcock, the only contender able to remotely challenge him, just over 18 kilometers from the finish line to win his third career Strade Bianche, spread over just four years.

After Pidcock matched Pogačar’s attack with just under 80 kilometers to go, which thwarted a second consecutive long-range effort, the two riders picked up a resilient Connor Swift, the last man standing from the breakaway, and built a lead of over a minute on the severely reduced and depleted peloton. While Pogačar suffered a high-speed crash on a descent that seemed to give Pidcock an opening, briefly creating opportunities for others at the upcoming Spring Classics, the door was just as quickly slammed shut when he calmly remounted and methodically chased down Pidcock, ultimately dropping him on a steep gravel climb with just under 20 kilometers remaining. Pogačar then rode clear without issue to win in Siena’s breathtaking Piazza del Campo, with Pidcock securing an impressive second place.

Strade Bianche 2025 Top Ten:
1) Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) +0
2) Thomas Pidcock (Q36.5 Pro Cycling) +1’24
3) Tim Wellens (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) +2’12
4) Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) +3’23
5) Pello Bilbao (Bahrain-Victorious) +4’20
6) Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility) +4’26
7) Gianni Vermeersch (Alpecin-Deceuninck) +4’29
8) Michael Valgren (EF Education-EasyPost) +4’37
9) Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto) +4’47
10) Roger Adrià (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) +5’06

To expand on my initial thoughts from Saturday after the race, I’ve broken down the key takeaways below:

Race Notebook

81.4km-to-go: By the time the television coverage starts, Pogačar’s UAE team has already thinned down the front group with their high pace, which is also keeping Pogačar at the front and out of trouble through the flurry of gravel sectors, which has caused a significant amount of crashes involving B and C level favorites. As Florian Vermeersch sets an extremely hard pace, Tom Pidcock is doing a great job of heads-up riding by sticking directly to Pogačar’s wheel as they approach the hardest climb in the race, and where Pogačar attacked the year prior.

78.5km: Pidcock, trying to take the fight to Pogačar, increases the pace and overtakes UAE’s last support rider standing, Tim Wellens. While this successfully isolates Pogačar from his team, it places the world’s strongest rider directly on his wheel, where he is now free to wind up an attack in Pidcock’s blind spot.

78.5km cont: Moments later, Pogačar attacks off Pidcock’s wheel. The Olympic mountain bike champion smartly responds without hesitation, knowing that if he lets him go, he won’t see Pogačar again, that if he wants a chance at winning, he has to go as deep as he possibly can for the next few minutes.

50km: After being unable to shake Pidcock loose and picking up Connor Swift from the breakaway, Pogačar appears slightly shaken, and, as a result begins pushing the pace on the descents, almost as if to prove to Pidcock he can pressure him on both the climbs and descents. However, while on the front pushing the pace around a tight (and dusty) corner, Pogačar slides out. Pidcock uses his incredibly fast reflexes and command of the bike to avoid him, while Swift is forced to stop to avoid crashing.

49.8km: Due to being flung off into a field, Pogačar has to hike out of a ditch and onto the road, before remounting his bike and taking off, all while Pidcock is riding clear at full speed (it was controversial he didn’t wait, but, on the flipside, if Pogačar was hurt and unable to continue, Pidcock needed all the time he could get to hold off the chase). Oddly, Pogačar makes the mistake of remounting his crashed bike instead of taking his new bike from the team car, which forces him to make another stop later on to get on a fresh bike.

49km-45.7km: After remounting his new bike, Pogačar rips off in pursuit of Pidcock, catching and dropping Swift and overcoming the deficit to Pidcock within just a few kilometers. With Pogačar within ten seconds, Pidcock sits up and waits, likely knowing that any resistance is futile and that it is best to save the energy he would use for later.

37.2km-25km: After re-connecting, Pidcock keeps the pace on at the front to hold off the chasing group, which is just under two minutes back, while Pogačar sits back and attempts to regain his rhythm. Looking back, Pidcock was a little too generous here and overestimated how affected Pogačar was by the crash.

18.4km: On one of the last remaining steep gravel climbs, Pogačar, who had clearly picked this spot beforehand, smoothly rides clear of Pidcock.

16.8km-12.9km: Pogačar builds up a gap of 30-seconds in under 2kms, while his teammate Tim Wellens rips out of the chasing group in pursuit of Pidcock. Six kilometers after his attack, Pogačar has nearly a minute on Pidcock and is riding toward yet another Strade Bianche title.

Finish: Despite having over a minute on Pidcock (who is doing everything he can to hold off a chasing Wellens) Pogačar rips up the steep climb to Piazza del Campo to take his third Strade Bianche title in four years, with Pidcock taking a hard-fought second and his teammate Wellens coming in third, giving UAE two of the three podium spots.

Five Key Takeaways

The first three takeaways are a slightly edited version of the initial post-race thoughts sent to premium subscribers directly after the race on Saturday

1) Tadej Pogačar’s Reign Shows No Signs of Slowing: Despite a high-speed mid-race crash that appeared to have snapped his incredible run of winning every major race he starts, the 26-year-old Slovenian quickly recovered to win his third Strade Bianche in four years after effortlessly riding Tom Pidcock, the only rider from the peloton capable of matching his long-range attack, off his wheel on one of the final uphill gravel sectors. Just like last year’s edition, his UAE squad expertly deployed their incredibly strong team to wind up the pace from incredibly far out (and long before the television broadcast began) to wear down Pogačar’s rivals and set up his eventual attack (as well as produce the added benefit of keeping him at the front and out of trouble).

• After his comeback win today, where he crossed the line, bloodied and battered over a minute ahead of a fully healthy Pidcock, it’s impossible to argue that Pogačar isn’t the best one-day racer in the sport right now.

  • Counting today, Pogačar has 15 top-tier one-day wins, including seven Monuments, since 2021, and there appears to be nothing anyone can do, not even Mathieu van der Poel, to outride him in a hilly one-day race.

    • At this point, it appears that the only thing that can produce a fair and interesting matchup is the wide-open Milan-Sanremo course and/or Pogačar lining up for Paris-Roubaix against the much heavier Mathieu van der Poel.

• On the other hand, while the crash didn’t slow him down today, it did open up a glimmer of hope for his competitors, since Pogačar’s wipeout occurred on a paved downhill with 50kms remaining after Pogačar was (unnecessarily) pushing the pace. While he was likely attempting to make Pidcock and Connor Swift (the last man standing from the breakaway) as uncomfortable as possible, the reward certainly wasn’t worth the risk, and the decision bordered on reckless.

  • Notably, this isn’t an isolated incident and may reveal Pogačar’s only real vulnerability, which is getting hurt somewhere along his campaign due to a crash, and why other contenders shouldn’t give up hope for their 2025 goals at the biggest races just yet.

2) Solo Victories Are Slowly Devouring the Sport: Interestingly, despite possessing a powerful sprint finish, Pogačar’s biggest one-day wins over the last 36 months have come via long-range solo moves. This is very different from the first three years of his career and shows that he and his UAE team believe the most efficient way to produce victories is by leveraging Pogačar’s superior raw strength and minimizing the uncontrollable variables of a reduced sprint.

• Pogačar Major One-day Solo Victories Since March 2022
  2025: Strade Bianche: 18.5km solo
  2024: Il Lombardia: 48.4km solo
  2024: World Championships RR: 51.7km solo
  2024: GP Montréal: 23.3km solo
  2024: Liège-Bastogne-Liège: 24.4km solo
  2024 Strade Bianche: 81.1km solo
  2023 Il Lombardia: 31km solo
  2023 Amstel Gold Race: 28.2km solo
  2023 Tour of Flanders: 17km solo

  2022 Strade Bianche: 49.2km solo

• Pogačar’s shift to going all-in for solo victories mirrors a larger trend in the sport, where almost every major one-day race has been dominated by a small subset of ultra-strong riders.

  • For example, if we bundle the last two editions of Strade Bianche with the last two years of the Monuments, World Championships, and Olympics, solo winners have won on 14 of the 15 occasions.

    • Major One-Day Race Outcomes 2023-2025:
      2025 Strade Bianche: Solo (Pogačar)
      2024 Il Lombardia: Solo (Pogačar)
      2024 World Championships: Solo (Pogačar)
      2024 Olympic Road Race: Solo (Evenepoel)
      2024 Liège–Bastogne–Liège: Solo (Pogačar)
      2024 Paris-Roubaix: Solo (Van der Poel)
      2024 Tour of Flanders: Solo (Van der Poel)
      2024 Milan-Sanremo: Bunch Sprint (Philipsen)
      2024 Strade Bianche: Solo (Pogačar)
      2023 World Championships: Solo (Van der Poel)
      2023 Il Lombardia: Solo (Pogačar)
      2023 Liège–Bastogne–Liège: Solo (Evenepoel)
      2023 Paris-Roubaix: Solo (Van der Poel)
      2023 Tour of Flanders: Solo (Pogačar)
      2023 Milan-Sanremo: Solo (Van der Poel)

      • Highlighting just how exclusive this solo racing style has made these races, only three riders (Pogačar, Mathieu van der Poel and Remco Evenepoel) won those 14 solo rides.

        • This “eliminate all variables” racing style has made it increasingly difficult, to the point of near impossibility, for riders below the Galáctico tier to contest the top one-day races.

3) Tom Pidcock’s Off-Season Team Change Has Him Looking Better, and Emotionally Freer, Than Ever: The 25-year-old cross discipline star may have failed to match the first place he notched here back in 2023, but judging by the fact that he was willing to take the fight to Pogačar on the decisive climb of Monte Sante Marie with 80 kilometers remaining, Pidcock is clearly feeling confident in his form, and had a noticeable added punch, and emotional lightness, after his off-season transfer from Ineos to Q36.5. With Pidcock and the tiny Q36.5 team getting a second place, while the best placing of Pidcock’s former behemoth of a team, Ineos, being 13th, it was likely not hard for Ineos to be frustrated, feeling like Pidcock has won the breakup.

• However, while the acceleration, and overtaking of Pogačar back on Monte Sante Marie, may have projected confidence, it put Pogačar on his wheel and out of his eyeline, which is one of the most dangerous situations a rider can find themselves in. This was particularly risky since directly before, he had prime real estate directly on Pogačar’s wheel, really the only position where anyone has a chance of following a full-on attack from Pogačar.

  • Additionally, after riding clear, Pidcock was far too eager and willing to pull through with Pogačar, especially when we consider that we have a solid body of evidence telling us that anyone who works with Pogačar in a breakaway is doomed.

    • In some ways, Pogačar’s crash was one of the worst things that could have happened to Pidcock, since it gave him false confidence and saw him increase his workload, while Pogačar effectively got a free ride until the terrain favored an attack.

4) The New Course Is in Desperate Need of a Re-Working: The race was lengthened from 184 kilometers in 2023 to its current 213 kilometers, with an additional 700 meters of climbing (2,300 feet). As a result, it has become a much different race and far less open than it was in the recent past. This has significantly reduced the number of potential winners and increased the gaps between groups. 

• For example, before the recently added racing kilometers and vertical climbing meters, no edition was won by a gap of more than a minute. However, after adding these, no edition has been won by a gap of less than a minute and the average time between first and second place is now roughly the same as the average time between first and second place between 2007 and 2023.

  • And, even amongst this small group of potential winners, a significant chunk of them, like Lidl-Trek’s Mathias Vacek, were taken out of action by crashes or splits in the field long before the race coverage began.

• However, the biggest issue with the updated course is that the most interesting and explosive racing action takes place on the middle section of the course, which features the most climbs and gravel sectors, before it settles down for what has been an anti-climactic run to the finish line over the final 40 kilometers.

  • For the Strade Bianche racing product to match its quickly growing profile among fans, organizers will need to find a way to provide race images early in the day and alter the course so that the most difficult sections are compressed closer to the finish line.

5) Visma’s Absence at the Front Highlights Just How Much The Gulf Between the Sport’s Top Two Teams Is Widening: Outside of Pogačar’s exploits and the strong performances of the rest of the top ten, something that stuck out to be the most on Saturday was the glaring lack of Visma-Lease a Bike jerseys at the front of the race.

• While UAE racked up two of the three podium spots, which is even more impressive when we consider the amount of work Tim Wellens put in to set up Pogačar’s attack, Visma’s top two results, Attila Valter in 22nd and Ben Tulett in 61st.

  • Although their top riders, Jonas Vingegaard and Wout van Aert, might not have been present, and Matteo Jorgenson has looked great so far at Paris-Nice, in 2023, back in 2023, without Van Aert and Vingegaard, they still managed to put two riders in the top five (one being Valter).

    • This extreme underperformance from riders outside of their top talent is concerning and surprising because it contrasts starkly with UAE’s extreme depth. This contrast makes it unclear how they will match UAE, which will offer both the strongest rider and the deepest support team, at the Tour de France.