Key Takeaways: Tour de France Stage 10

Breaking down what we learned and how a routine stage through central France was won

On a day of tense but largely uneventful racing through central France through the remote reaches of the Loire Valley, Jasper Philipsen’s Alpecin-Deceuninck team, finally refound the peerless sprint leadout to deliver Philipsen his first sprint victory of this Tour de France. Behind, Biniam Girmay, who was left fighting for position in Philipsen’s wake, surged late to take an essential second place that could go a long way toward defending his Green Jersey lead, especially with Alpecin appearing to re-find its juggernaut leadout that has made them an elite stage winning team in recent years.

Outside of staying at the front and ahead of any potential crashes or splits, the GC contenders essentially extended their rest day as they rolled across the line with no changes in the classification and their eyes on Wednesday’s much more difficult Stage 11. The biggest GC news of the day was that Primož Roglič’s RedBull-Bora-Hansgrohe team lost a key piece of support when Aleksandr Vlasov pulled out of the race after it was discovered he had suffered a broken ankle after crashing on Stage 9.

Stage Top Five
1) Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) +0
2) Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) +0
3) Pascal Ackermann (Israel-Premier Tech) +0
4) Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) +0
5) Fernando Gaviria (Movistar) +0

Green (Points) Jersey
1) Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty)-267pts
2) Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) 193pts
3) Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X Mobility)-107pts

Current GC Top Five:
1) Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) +0
2) Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) +33
3) Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) +1’15
4) Primož Roglič (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) +1’36
5) Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates) +2’16

Stage 10 Race Notebook

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129.5km-to-go: Jasper Philipsen begins his Green Jersey comeback at the intermediate sprint point by coming through ahead of Biniam Girmay, taking back a delta of two points. Girmay, due to sprinting between Philipsen and the barriers as they begin creeping onto the road, is forced to grab the brakes before the line.

4.3km: As the sprinters’ teams line up inside the final kms, Visma is doing a great job of keeping Jonas Vingegaard at the front and out of trouble, while Pogačar is less protected and is freelancing on the wheels of Visma. On the other side of the road, Philipsen is surrounded by a full Alpecin team, while Girmay is isolated from his team and following the wheels of the Alpecin train.

1.8km: As they get closer to the 1km banner, Astana moves up to lead out Mark Cavendish, who is disconnected from the group and stuck at the back. Meanwhile, Alpecin is moving up through the field, remaining fully intact.

1.6km: Realizing they have lost Cavendish, Astana pulls off to avoid further burying Cavendish, and Alpecin comes to the front.

700m: Alpecin’s Robbe Ghys winds up an incredibly fast leadout on the front, Visma’s Christophe Laporte behind (for Wout van Aert), with Van der Poel on his wheel and Jasper Philipsen behind him.

400m: Ghys eventually pulls off as Van der Poel comes over the top of Laporte to hit the front with Philipsen right on his wheel.

350m: Unlike previous stages, Van der Poel hits the front with such speed and power that allows him to string the field out and keep the other sprinters buried behind Philipsen. For example, Girmay is spending energy fighting for wheels while Van Aert is extremely far back and will have to make up a significant amount of space just to get even with Philipsen.

250m: With Philipsen positioned against the right side of the barriers (which means he just has one side to defend, Van der Poel pulls off to the left (into the line the other sprinters would want to take). Due to the perfect leadout, all Philipsen has to do now is sprint into the vast open space before him while Girmay and Van Aert fight through traffic behind.

200m: Once Philipsen gets into his full sprint, he immediately starts putting space between him and the rest. Girmay comes by Pascal Ackermann in second while Van Aert surges through the field behind.

Finish: Philipsen crosses the line with a full bike length between himself and Girmay, who gets precious points in second, while Van Aert is closing so fast he nearly overcomes Ackermann for third.

Three Key Takeaways

1) The Return of Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Picture-Perfect Leadout Has Philipsen Looking Nearly Unbeatable: After Jasper Philipsen struggled to find the same winning leadout rhythm through the first nine stages, the team appeared to work things out on the rest day and emerged today with an unbeatable combination of patience, strength, and timing to re-find their winning ways after setting Philipsen up to finish off yet another sub-ten second sprint. struggling

• The most interesting thing about today’s win was that even while Philipsen suddenly looked unbeatable, the only real difference between today and his previous losses was his team’s well-coordinated leadout, not any real improvement in his actual sprint.

  • By sitting back as the other readouts burned themselves out too early before coming to the front when they did, Alpecin was able to carry an overwhelming amount of speed to the front, keeping Philipsen’s rivals pinned further back in the field and forcing them to jockey for position and sprint from much further back.

    • As Girmay, Ackermann, and Van Aert struggled in Alpecin’s wake, Philipsen was surrounded by teammates and only had to sprint into wide open space, which made all the difference on the day.

  • While this leadout was hugely impressive, the fact that Philipsen needed it to return to winning form raises questions about his viability as the world’s top sprinter without such support.

    • For example, through his seven career Tour de France stages, his total time spent sprinting in the wind is likely little much more than a minute, and he has yet to show that he can consistently win these Tour sprints without an armchair ride.

2) The Tightening Fight for Green Means the Jersey Could be Won in the Mountains: After Philipsen’s intermediate sprint point and stage win today, the gap between Girmay in the lead over Philipsen was cut by 22 points. With the gap now 74 points, down from 96, and with three likely sprint stages remaining, the fight for Green Jersey could get interesting if Philipsen keeps winning.

• However, with the gap between first and second place on sprint stages being 30 points, the gap between second and third 20 points, and the third and fourth just two, to stay in contention, Philipsen has to keep winning or coming in second on every remaining sprint stage.

  • Assuming things do tighten, it is very likely that Green will end up being won by the rider who is capable and willing to get into breakaways on mountain stages to soak up intermediate sprint points in mountain valleys.

3) The Peloton’s Rising Level Is Killing the Early Sprint Stage Breakaway: For the fourth time in this Tour, no serious breakaway went clear, and the peloton spent a considerable amount of time nervously stacked edge-to-edge on the road watching out for potential crashes or echelons.

• Part of the reason for this apparent death of the early breakaway can be attributed to course design and the dynamics of the wildcard teams (Uno-X, TotalEngeries, Israel-Premier Tech), who normally stack the breakaway to curry favor with ASO, meaning that either their best chances for a win are in the bunch sprints (Uno-X, Israel-Premier Tech) or waiting for another day that produces a more selective breakaway (TotalEnergies).

  • Another is that the level has gotten so high across the board that even a small breakaway can hold an average speed that makes a move difficult to reel in, even for a large peloton, so it is essential to keep the breakaway on an incredibly short leash.

    • Not being spotted more than a minute by the peloton means it isn’t worth it for most riders to get into the early moves since being allowed to dangle just a minute or two ahead of the bunch is a sure waste of energy.

Stage 11 Preview

Tomorrow’s 11th stage sees the peloton face a deceptively hard 211 kilometers that features over 4,000 meters (13,000 feet) of climbing through the Massif Central mountain range. With most of the climbing, spread over four categorized climbs, packed inside the final 50 kilometers, the stage will likely see action from the GC group as Tadej Pogačar looks to press his rivals on the terrain that suits his explosive climbing style.

• The flat and fast opening 100+ kilometers to the stage will make the breakaway almost impossible to control for the GC teams, which means that the breakaway will likely build up enough of a gap to contest the stage.

• Prediction: Ben Healy is finally able to use the terrain in the final few kilometers to capitalize on his incredible form and get a stage win from the breakaway. In the GC group behind, Tadej Pogačar attacks and distances Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič but cannot shake Remco Evenepoel.