Key Takeaways: Tour de France Stage 18
Breaking down how one of the most interesting tactical battles we've seen so far at this Tour de France played out
Kasper Asgreen impressively emerged from a reduced group to grab an extremely unexpected stage win in Bourg-en-Bresse just a few meters ahead of the fast-chasing peloton behind.
Asgreen’s victory, which ended a stage win drought for his Soudal-QuickStep team, completed the rare task of winning what was supposed to be a sprint stage after attacking with two other riders as soon as the flag dropped. Asgreen and his breakaway companions were assisted by the fact that Alpecin, whose sprinter Jasper Philipsen led the foiled peloton home just a few meters behind, made the fatal mistake of holding the gap to the breakaway too close, which allowed Lotto-Dtsny to bridge Eenkhoorn up to join his teammate Victor Campenaerts inside the final hour racing. This injection of relatively ‘fresh’ legs, along with perfect cooperation between the four lead riders and heavy fatigue in the peloton behind, allowed the breakaway to pull off an incredibly upset.
This stage, which almost acted as a ‘bottle episode’ to the overarching dramatic storylines, produced, in my opinion, one of the most thrilling stages of the race. The combination of tactical battles, and ensuing mistakes, high-speed pursuit through the road furniture of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, and thrilling sprint for the line in the city center provided a fantastic spectacle, even with the fight for the GC effectively over due to Jonas Vingegaard easily defending his 7+ minute advantage over Tadej Pogačar.
Stage Top Three
1) Kasper Asgreen (Soudal - Quick Step) +0
2) Pascal Eenkhoorn (Lotto Dstny) +0
3) Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X) +0
Current GC Top Five:
1) Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo) +0
2) Tadej Pogačar (UAE) +7’35
3) Adam Yates (UAE) +10’45
4) Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos) +12’01
5) Simon Yates (Jayco) +12’19
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Stage 18 Notebook:
184km: Just as the stage starts, three riders attack, Kasper Asgreen, Jonas Abrahamsen, and Victor Campenaerts). They get away immediately without any protest or chasing from the peloton. It may seem wild, but this is the winning move.
88.1km: The peloton, paced by DSM, Jayco, and Alpecin, keep the gap to the breakaway incredibly tight, holding it around at around the minute mark for nearly the entire stage. This is likely because with riders so sapped from the difficult mountain stages, they don’t feel confident they could close a large gap to three strong riders. But, holding a breakaway this close carries immense risk, since it means fresh riders can feasibly attack from the peloton to bridge up to the breakaway.
79.6km: With the gap coming down close to 30-seconds due to riders attacking in an attempt to bridge up, the teams that have been working all day get to the front in an attempt to block the road and keep riders from bridging up on the short climb (it is easier to bridge on a climb vs a flat road due to the lower speeds). However, Alpecin performs a lazy seal on the right side of the road, which leaves a gap, which Pascal Eenkhoorn sees.
79.6km: Eenkhoorn slips through the gap and attempts to bridge up to the breakaway, but he is immediately marked by Jasper Philipsen, who wants to win the stage via a bunch sprint and doesn’t want Eenkhoorn, who is relatively fresh, to get into the move.
79.5km: Philipsen rides up to Eenkhoorn, filling his ear with what I’m sure weren’t sweet nothings, and, just like he has in nearly every final sprint, forces him to brake by riding him toward the barriers. This means Eenkhoorn can either brake or ride directly into Philipsen, crashing both of them (a less even-headed rider could be tempted to choose the second option just to teach Philipsen a lesson). But, Eenkhoorn, chooses the correct option and allows Philipsen to kill the move and heads back to the peloton to wait for another opportunity.
65km: With the gap still around 30 seconds, Eenkhoorn attacks again when the road opens up. Alpecin, who can’t block him this time, doesn’t react, which proves to be a massive mistake.
62.3km-61.4km: Eenkhoorn’s Lotto team, which already has Victor Campenaerts in the breakaway, asks Campenaerts to sit up and wait for Eenkhoorn so the two can work together to bring Eenkhoorn up to the leaders. Knowing their chances are far better with four riders versus two, the other two riders remaining on the front, sit up to wait for the Lotto duo. As soon as they link up with 57km-to-go, Campenaerts goes directly to the front and immediately starts setting the pace. The gap to the peloton is 47 seconds.
23km: Knowing that the peloton won’t give them more than a minute, but also won’t want to get too close to avoid another rider bridging up, the breakaway keeps the pace mild until under 30kms to go, when they suddenly step on the gas and begin rotating in a seamless four-rider paceline to catch out the peloton.
12km: Alpecin, now joined by fresh legs from the Lidl-Trek team, is setting a fast pace in an effort to close down the now-flying leaders. However, Julian Alaphilippe, who is teammates with Kasper Asgreen up the road, gets into the rotation at the front (and talks smack to the riders as they pull through), only to sit up when he hits the wind, to slow down the peloton. Say what you will about Alaphilippe, but this is top-class teamwork from the double World Champion.
5.3km-4.4km: Over 8km, the peloton only takes back five seconds on the breakaway. Alpecin, whose riders are fried from the extremely hard pace they’ve had to set over the last 20kms, is now out of pacers. Mattias Skjelmose of Lidl-Trek also runs out of gas, while Nils Politt, one of the only strong pacesetters remaining, hits the front.
2.9km: In a single pull, Politt shaves nine seconds off the gap to the breakaway, but the riders at the front keep pulling through without issue, knowing that while Politt might be bringing down the gap, his high pace is also hurting the peloton, who will have a hard time closing down the last few seconds when Politt inevitably has to pull off.
600m: Campenaerts gives an extremely long leadout for his teammate Eenkhoorn. The peloton is barreling down on the escapees, but without the front group playing games and slowing down, it is too late to catch them.
200m: When Campenaerts pulls off, there is a slight lull in the pace. Asgreen, being careful not to launch too early, waits until he sees the 200 meters-to-go sign to launch his sprint.
Finish: Despite not being a great sprinter, Asgreen is able to leverage his superior fitness and class to hold off Eenkhoorn and Abrahamsen and take the stage win, which is massively important for his struggling QuickStep team. Campenaerts, after sitting up after his pull, fades back right into the middle of the bunch sprint to act as a clever obstacle between the breakaway and the sprinters.
Key Takeaways
1) The peloton made a fatal mistake by holding the breakaway too close throughout the stage
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