Key Takeaways: Tour de France Stage 15

Breaking down how a brutal mountain stage in the Pyrenees produced one of the most impressive climbing performances in modern history & likely settled the GC competition

On a brutally hard mountain stage through the heart of the Pyrenees, Tadej Pogačar weathered a direct challenge from Jonas Vingegaard’s Visma-Lease a Bike team before unleashing one of the Tour’s best all-time climbing performances to win atop the storied Plateau de Beille climb and likely to seal his third Tour de France overall victory. Behind, Vingegaard, whose Visma team rode an all-day high pace to attempt to fatigue Pogačar and allow the defending champion to take time, rolled in looking completely defeated 1’08 behind the stage winner after being unable to respond to his rival’s brutal attack with five kilometers remaining on the final climb. Remco Evenepoel, the only other rider to stay within a reasonable distance of the two leaders, came in a well-managed 2’51 down, while the rest of the peloton trickled in minutes later after struggling in the wake.

Stage Top Five
1) Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) +0
2) Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) +1’08
3) Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) +2’51
4) Mikel Landa (Soudal QuickStep) +3’54
5) João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) +4’43

Time Select GC Contenders Gained(+)/Lost(-) on the Stage:
Pogačar +0
Vingegaard -1’12
Evenepoel -2’57
Landa -4’04
Almeida -4’53
Yates -5’06
Rodríguez -5’18
Ciccone -6’39

Current GC Top Five:
1) Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) +0
2) Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) +3’09
3) Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) +5’19
4) João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) +10’54
5) Mikel Landa (Soudal QuickStep) +11’21

Stage 15 Race Notebook

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170.5km-to-go: After the big GC teams, and the teams that missed each move, keep things together on the first climb of the day, which happened right at kilometer zero, the breakaway finally forms in the ensuing valley and is mainly made up of big riders that were dropped on the climb and caught back on after the descent. RedBull-Bora puts two ultra-strong riders, Nico Denz, and Bob Jungels, in the move to blow open the gap for their teammate Jai Hindley, who is attempting to contest the stage win.

162km: At the intermediate sprint point, Biniam Girmay, who has impressively gotten into the move after being dropped at the start, wins the intermediate sprint to all-but seal the Green Jersey. However, he is later relegated to third due to his move to the right that cut off Michael Matthews, which lowers his points haul from 20 to 15 points.

146.7km: After a group of stronger climbers, including Richard Carapaz and Ben Healy, attack and bridge across to the breakaway, Jonas Vingegaard’s Visma team gets to the front and sets a hard pace that keeps the gap to the breakaway incredibly tight, between one and two minutes, which suggests they want to try to deliver Vingegaard to the stage win and potentially taking back time on Pogačar.

73.4km-69.5km: RedBull is still driving the pace on the front of the breakaway for Hindley, but with Visma holding the gap at 3.5 minutes, tensions are running high and the move splits in two, with Richard Carapaz caught behind the split, due to some riders feeling others aren’t pulling their weight. Carapaz eventually makes it back to the front, but it is clear at this point that the stage won’t be contested from this breakaway.

50.8km: Heading into the valley before the final climb of Plateau de Beille, Visma’s pacemaking over the previous three climbs has taken a toll and left them with just two riders (Matteo Jorgenson & Wilco Kelderman) to set up Vingegaard’s coming attack. Meanwhile, UAE still has three riders around Pogačar, and don’t have the burden of riding on the front.

14.5km: On the lower slopes of the Plateau de Beille, Jorgenson, the only remaining Visma rider, is setting an incredibly hard pace that is putting everyone but Vingegaard and Pogačar under pressure (João Almeida is dropped here but ends up 5th on the stage). The gap to the front of the race is two minutes.

10.5km: With Jorgenson running out of steam and his team working all day to set up an attack, Vingegaard is somewhat forced to attack quite a long way from the top of the climb. Pogačar immediately and easily responds to the move (in stark contrast to how Vingegaard has struggled to mark Pogačar’s moves). Behind, Remco Evenepoel smartly doesn’t even change his pace and continues to ride his own race. Richard Carapaz, the last rider remaining from the breakaway, is 40 seconds off the front.

8.7km: Vingegaard continues to drive a hard pace while Pogačar sits unbothered on his wheel. At this point, Vingegaard, recognizing this, could theoretically throw in the towel and sit up in an effort to limit his eventual losses, but, instead, he drives on with the hope that their plan will crack Pogačar.

5.5km: As they get further up the climb, Vingegaard is out of the saddle and dropping his chain down his cassette almost constantly in a search for extra power. This suggests that his pre-Tour weight loss has left him without the ability to push big watts in the saddle like Pogačar. This image is all we need to see to know the result of this stage, and likely, this Tour.

5.4km: When Vingegaard collapses into the saddle and slows up slightly, Pogačar immediately knows that he is vulnerable.

5.4km cont.: Just as Vingegaard slows, Pogačar attacks, and lifts the pace so drastically that Vingegaard can’t even attempt to latch onto his wheel.

5.3km: Pogačar, in the saddle and no longer even really attacking, spins clear of Vingegaard.

4.5km-2.2km: In the kilometer after the attack, Vingegaard concedes 13 seconds to Pogačar, and two kilometers later, he gives back 36 seconds and looks exhausted. Remco Evenepoel is riding a steady pace two minutes behind to solidify his third-place position.

Pogačar Finish: While riding in the big ring, Pogačar keeps an incredibly high pace to the finish line and puts 26-seconds into Vingegaard in the last 1.5kms alone with a picture-perfect high-cadence in-the-saddle pedal stroke.

Vingegaard Finish: Despite putting in a great performance, Vingegaard crosses the finish line over a minute behind, looking completely empty and defeated. Remco Evenepoel, with one of the best climbing performances of his career, finishes nearly three minutes later, with teammate Mikel Landa over a minute behind him in fourth.

Three Key Takeaways