Three Quick Thoughts: Il Lombardia
Initial post-race thoughts about how the final major road race of the season, Il Lombardia, played out
In the brutally steep yet visually stunning mountains surrounding the gorgeous town of Bergamo in Northern Italy, Tadej Pogačar reminded everyone that he is one of the best riders in the history of the sport by attacking and forging clear of an incredibly elite group, before cruising to a solo victory to add a third consecutive win at Il Lombardia, and a fifth Monument title, to his quickly-growing palmares. Below are my quick thoughts about the ride before the full race breakdown on Monday.
2023 Il Lombardia Top Three
1) Tadej Pogačar (UAE) +0
2) Andrea Bagioli (Soudal-QuickStep) +52
3) Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma) +52
1) Tadej Pogačar is as close to unbeatable at this race as any rider in the history of the sport
The 25-year-old wins his third consecutive Il Lombardia title and becomes only the third rider behind only Alfredo Binda and Fausto Coppi to accomplish this feat. His ability to win one of the hardest races on the calendar seemingly on command is truly impressive, but what speaks to his greatness and staggering versatility is that he won this race on two different configurations (Como to Bergamo: 2021, 2023 & Bergamo to Como: 2022) in multiple ways and with different levels of fitness.
In 2021 & 2022, he dropped all but one other competitor on the climbs before outsprinting them at the finish line, but today, after failing to drop the other contenders on the final climb, he attacked the downhill before putting a staggering amount of time into the rest on the descent and gliding clear for a definitive solo victory.
As a testament to his greatness, Pogačar won today with the greatest margin of victory at this race despite looking like he was lacking his best fitness and was in the worst shape out of his three Lombardia wins.
This win means that Pogačar has won five Monument victories in just three seasons and in his last nine Monument starts, putting him at a staggering good and completely unrivaled 55.6% Monument win percentage since 2021.
To put this into context, at just 25, he has more Monument wins than any other active rider in the peloton, is already ranked 16th all-time, and has five titles at the same age as the great Tom Boonen, who went on to win seven total Monuments, was when he won his first.
The fact that Pogačar can win major one-days while also being one of the top two grand tour racers in the world means that Pogačar is currently, without a doubt, the best, and by far the most versatile, rider in the sport of professional cycling.
2) Primož Roglič’s going from a tactical masterclass last weekend to a disaterclass today illustrates the major gulf between semi-classics and Monuments
In his last race in Jumbo colors, the 33-year-old, after a surprisingly up-and-down race, gets a solid third place, which marks only the second time he has finished on a Monument podium in his career.
While this ride, especially his sprint, where he finished second after being on the front from nearly 500 meters to go, was impressive, it was hard not to notice the stark difference in the poise he showed in last weekend’s shorter Giro dell'Emilia, where he moped up the same competition with ease, to today.
On today’s final climb, he looked rattled and on the limit when he was isolated from his team, which led to a momentary lack of judgment that saw him take his eye off the ball and lose Pogačar’s wheel (after not leaving it throughout the tune-up races), which allowed Pogačar to ride clear for the win. This was a costly error since, judging by his impressive sprint, if he could have held Pogačar’s wheel at this point, it was possible that he could have won a reduced sprint for the win.
The fact that he looked far less physically and tactically impressive in a 238-kilometer one-day race versus the 200-kilometer one last weekend shows us why he isn’t the same level of major one-day rider as his countryman Pogačar, despite looking at, or even above, his level in the shorter ones.
3) Questions still linger regarding Remco Evenepoel’s ability to best top riders at major one-day races
The Belgian wunderkind may have two career Monument wins at the age of 23, but after today, where he crashed early in the race and finished 9th place in a rare opportunity to go head-to-head-to-head with Roglič and Pogačar, there are still major questions about his ability to go up against the world’s best riders at the peak of their fitness.
Through every career non-international one-day race matchup, Evenepoel has yet to beat Roglič on a single occasion and has never beaten Pogačar in a race the Slovenian has finished.
This is a troubling trendline, especially since Evenepoel has traditionally employed a ‘Remco see, Remco smash’ racing style to win one-day races, which doesn’t work nearly as well against top-tier and fully fit competition.
Also, while the early crash likely affected his performance, seeing the young Belgian fall off the pace on a late race climb when the pace got high, only to surge back on the flats later on the run into the finish line, made me question if he has the ability to ride on other rider’s terms and be uncomfortable for the 5-10 minutes at a time to stay in an elite group toward the end of a world-class race.
Keep an eye out for a full race breakdown in Monday’s Key Takeaways & post your thoughts/opinions/debates/questions about the performance in the comments section below:
I struggle to understand the cagey tactics employed on the final climb when Pogacar made his move. The others left at the front showed they had the legs to bring him back. And they knew that if Pogacar gets up the ride there is a good chance they might not see him until the finish. Compounding that situation, is that once they caught him on the climb, they let him go on the descent. Was Tadej simply stronger and they could not match his accelerations? (Then why were they able to catch him a few minutes later?) Were they riding for podium places, given the prestige of such a finish and the valuable UCI points, and ceding the win to Pogacar? (That appeared to be Bagioli's successful strategy and Chris Harper's losing bet.) Or was this simply the fog and confusion of an attritional race that broke down the strengths of the best riders until their weaknesses were revealed? (I'm thinking of Roglic always saving something for the finish, Vlasov going early and missing the key move, or Mas getting passive when he needs to be aggressive.)
Overall, Pogacar showed he is the best overall rider and willing to go and go again while others watch. It is not an invincible tactic as Jumbo showed in the last two Tours de France. One-day races and monuments- at least so far- just aren't long enough for Tadej's attacking style to really hurt him. Credit should also be given to Adam Yates whose strength has served as a launching point for Tadej frequently this year. That combination of the best rider with a top ten rider has been lethal throughout 2023.
It’s incredible to consider that Tom Boonen won his first monument at the same age that Pogacar won his fifth.
I’m glad that Roglic is moving on from Jumbo Visma. Jumbo didn’t serve him all that well in recent years, and I think that’s true for Wout Van Aert as well. Both would benefit from being on teams that supported their strengths.