Tour de France Final Rest Day Reflections
Breaking down where the main contenders have taken/lost time so far and speculating if the GC stalemate could finally break in the third week
New BTP Podcast: While the peloton enjoys the 2023 Tour’s final rest day, I talked with my BTP Podcast co-host Andrew Vontz about the major stories of the race so far, and how the extremely tight GC battle will be decided as the 2023 Tour enters its final phase.
Listen on Apple Podcasts & Spotify
With the second and final rest day of the 2023 Tour de France upon us, we have a shockingly similar GC picture between the top two riders to what we had on the first rest day; defending champion Jonas Vingegaard holds his race lead over two-time Tour winner Tadej Pogačar by a small margin, which has decreased from 17 to just 10-seconds over the last week of hard racing.
This lockstep fight for the overall win has us heading into the final week of racing with one of the tightest margins between two top contenders the Tour has seen in modern history. And, with no sign of one contender being able to crack the other, there is a good chance that this one goes down to the wire and produces an edition that can rival the 1989 Tour’s razor-thin 8-second margin between Greg Lemond and Laurent Fignon.
But, while the top two riders have been unable to shake one another, the rest of the GC contenders are falling away from Vingegaard’s lead at a rapid pace anytime the pace gets high and racing gets hot. However, while the gap between the podium contenders and the race lead continues to grow, it is tightening between one another, with the crash-battered Jai Hindley, surging Carlos Rodríguez, and impressively consistent Adam Yates, all within 1’17 of the final podium place.
Current GC Top Ten:
1) Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo) +0
2) Tadej Pogačar (UAE) +10
3) Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos) +5’21
4) Adam Yates (UAE) +5’40
5) Jai Hindley (Bora) +6’38
6) Sepp Kuss (Jumbo) +9’16
7) Pello Bilbao (Bahrain) +10’11
8) Simon Yates (Jayco) +10’48
9) David Gaudu (FDJ) +14’07
10) Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) +14’18
Time Changes Between Top Five Since First Rest Day
Pogačar +7
Vingegaard +0
Rodríguez -59
A. Yates -1’01
Hindley -3’58
KOM (Polka Dot) Jersey Top Three
1) Giulio Ciccone - 58pts
2) Neilson Powless - 58pts
3) Jonas Vingegaard - 48pts
Points (Green) Jersey Top Three
1) Jasper Philipsen - 323pts
2) Mads Pedersen - 179pts
3) Bryan Coquard - 148pts
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Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Stage 6
Stage 7
Stage 8
Stage 9
Stage 10
Stage 11
Stage 12
Stage 13
Stage 14
Stage 15
Where Time Has Been Won/Lost So Far
To discern how the GC race will play out in the coming weeks, let’s look at where each of the top four took or lost time so far. I’ve isolated every stage where the top two have won/lost time relative to each other so far and how much time they won(+) or lost(-).
Stage 1 Hilly
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -4
Stage 2 Hilly
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -7
Stage 5 Mountains
Jonas Vingegaard +0
Tadej Pogačar -1’04
Stage 6 Summit Finish
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -28
Stage 9 Summit Finish
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -8
Stage 13 Summit Finish
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -8
Stage 14 Mountains
Jonas Vingegaard +0
Tadej Pogačar -1
Course Type Where Time Was Won/Lost Relative to Vingegaard
When looking at the course types where Tadej Pogačar, the only other rider besides the current race leader with a realistic chance of winning the race, has won/lost time relative to Jonas Vingegaard, we can see that we are still in a situation where, outside of stage 5, where Vingegaard took over a minute on Pogačar, the margins between the two have been incredibly small.
Mountain Stages
Pogačar -28 (lost)
Summit Finishes
Pogačar +36 (gained)
Time Bonuses
Pogačar +18 (gained)
Five Key Takeaways
1) Tadej Pogačar’s progress on uphill finishes has significantly stalled through the Tour’s second phase
Pogačar has still been leaning on time bonuses and uphill finishes to peg back the time he lost on stage 5.
But, while he took 32 seconds on Vingegaard in just 4km of uphill attacking over the first nine stages of racing (8 seconds per km), his progress has significantly stalled in the second week, with his bounty reduced to just 4-seconds while attacking Vingegaard over the final kilometer of three separate mountain stages (1.3 seconds per km).
This drastic reduction in the amount of time Pogačar has been able to take over the uphill finishes suggests that his progress on the road stages against his 10-second deficit has potentially stalled and that he will have to count on taking significant time on Vingegaard in tomorrow’s time trial.
2) With their form so evenly matched, there appear to be limited opportunities for Pogačar and Vingegaard to take time on one another
With such tight margins between the top two contenders, it isn’t clear where exactly either is going to be able to take time on the other to create a winning margin larger than a few seconds.
The obvious solution would normally be tomorrow’s time trial, but, with seemingly no significant space between the form of either rider, it isn’t clear to me that the climb-heavy TT will create large gaps.
This might sound absurd, but, we are just coming out of a Giro d’Italia where on the 35-kilometer stage 9 time trial, only four seconds separated the top four placings, with only two seconds separating three key GC contenders.
3) Vingegaard’s superpower is being able to absorb blows from Pogačar on almost every GC stage
So far at this Tour, Pogačar has beaten Vingegaard on 10 out of the 15 total stages completed (67%), and six out of the seven total GC stages where time was taken (86%). Just glancing at these stats, you might assume Pogačar is far ahead in the GC standings.
Instead, Vingegaard is leading by 10 seconds, despite being pummeled by Pogačar on almost every decisive stage.
This stems from the fact that his superpower seems to be able to take nearly endless body blows from Pogačar without ceding significant time, while also taking far larger chunks of time on Pogačar on the 10% of GC stages where he takes time.
4) Adam Yates is a revelation for UAE, but it isn’t clear how they can actually leverage his impressive form to their advantage
The emergence of Adam Yates as a viable GC contender has been a revelation for both Yates personally and UAE as a team.
His rise means that Pogačar is no longer isolated and outnumbered on every late-stage climb, and that he has someone to hand him a bottle if he misses a feed late in a race, as Yates did on stage 15.
This has significantly decreased the chances that Pogačar is caught up the road and isolated from his team without access to in-race food or water, as he was on multiple occasions in 2022.
However, I’m extremely skeptical if Yates’ GC position can actually be leveraged by UAE to pressure Jumbo in any meaningful way.
The fact that Yates is so far behind Vingegaard (5’40), yet so close to third (19 seconds) means that an attack on the final climb shouldn’t draw out a reaction from Vingegaard, while Yates will be unwilling to attack further out than the final climb since it would carry a high risk of failure, and cost him a shot at a podium placing (which would be a career-making result for Yates).
5) Yesterday’s crash leaving Jumbo-Visma banged up could cause problems for Vingegaard late in this Tour
Yesterday’s fan-caused mass crash, which brought down two key members of the Jumbo-Visma workforce (Sepp Kuss and Nathan Van Hooydonck), could weaken the teams just enough to cause them problems on stages 17 & 20.
Assuming they are still in the race lead on the brutal high-mountain stage 17, Kuss’ crash could mean that Vingegaard could find himself isolated late in the stage and forced to defend his lead against multiple UAE riders.
The brutality of the climb of the Col de la Loze will likely help Vingegaard to defend by attacking, but the real problems could come on the endlessly hilly, but less selective stage 20.
If Jumbo is leading, but depleted, at this point, it could give Pogačar an opportunity to get into the early breakaway and place Vingegaard under serious pressure.
Stage 16 Preview
Tomorrow’s short 22.4-kilometer-long individual time trial is one of the most important stages of this Tour de France.
While the raw distance is short, the significant elevation gain will extend the amount of time riders are actually on course, which will extend the effective length of the event.
The final climb, which is 6.3km-long at a 6.6% gradient, will be key to deciding the overall winner.
There is a very good chance that the winner of this stage will go on to win the overall Tour title.
Teams and riders have been quiet about if they plan to undergo bike changes or not, but the length and steepness of that final climb have me guessing that we will see nearly every favorite change from a time trial to a road bike for the final six kilometers.
With no designated bike-change area like we saw at the recent Giro d’Italia, riders will be able to wait until they are on the climb, and their speed lower, to change machines. This will allow them to change with a small time penalty since they don’t have to go from a high steady speed to a complete stop before getting back up to speed again.
Instead, they can stop from a much lower climbing speed, take a new bike, and get back up to speed via a push from their mechanic.
Interesting, about the place and time to switch bikes. Also interesting that this time trial may very well decide the whole Tour. I will be watching.
Pogacar and Vingegaard have fought to a near stalemate between each other, but have separated themselves from the other contenders. I was looking to Bora to use their team to set up a stage for Hindley to go for the GC overall. Last week proved the Aussie can't hang with the two GC leaders. One thing that Jumbo and UAE could learn from Bora: use the breakaway to change the GC picture. I don't think much will be changing in the TT tomorrow. So let's see Kuss and Yates in breakaways on Stages 17 and 20, or in a 20-plus rider breakaway on Stage 19 when the unlucky teams throw everything at a stage win.