Tour de France Rest Day #1 Reflections
Breaking down where the GC contenders have won/lost time on the Tour de France's first rest day
New BTP Podcast: While the peloton enjoyed their rest day, I talked with my BTP Podcast co-host Andrew Vontz about the recent stages and where we see the race going as it enters its second, and far more difficult, phase.
Listen on Apple Podcasts & Spotify
Breaking Down What We’ve Learned About The 2023 Tour de France GC Contest So Far & Where It Will Go From Here
After just the opening nine days of racing, the two-man battle atop the Tour de France GC classification has already been pulled into extremely sharp focus. Defending champion Jonas Vingegaard is holding a thin 17-second lead over two-time winner Tadej Pogačar, but, the next closest competitor, Jai Hindley, is 2 minutes, 40 seconds behind in third place, and no other rider is even within four minutes of Vingegaard and Pogačar.
With these facts in mind, it seems safe to say that this is a two-man GC race and that the winner will come from either Pogačar or Vingegaard. The only question remaining is if Pogačar will be able to get a third career Tour victory, or if Vingegaard will match him with two.
Current GC Top Ten:
1) Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo) +0
2) Tadej Pogačar (UAE) +17
3) Jai Hindley (Bora) +2’40
4) Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos) +4’22
5) Adam Yates (UAE) +4’39
6) Simon Yates (Jayco) +4’44
7) Tom Pidcock (Ineos) +5’26
8) David Gaudu (FDJ) +6’01
9) Sepp Kuss (Jumbo) +6’45
10) Romain Bardet (DSM) +6’58
KOM (Polka Dot) Jersey Top Three
1) Neilson Powless - 46pts
2) Felix Gall - 28pts
3) Tobias Halland Johannessen - 26pts
Points (Green) Jersey Top Three
1) Jasper Philipsen - 259pts
2) Bryan Coquard - 149pts
3) Mads Pedersen - 143pts
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Catch Up Quick (become a premium member to receive daily stage breakdowns):
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Stage 6
Stage 7
Stage 8
Stage 9
Where Time Has Been Won/Lost So Far
To discern how the GC race will play out in the coming weeks, let’s look at where each of the top four took or lost time so far. I’ve isolated every stage where the top three have won/lost time relative to each other so far and how much time they won(+) or lost(-).
Stage 1 Hilly
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -4
Jai Hindley -4
Stage 2 Hilly
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -7
Jai Hindley -12
Stage 5 Mountains
Jai Hindley +0
Jonas Vingegaard -52
Tadej Pogačar -1’56
Stage 6 Summit Finish
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -28
Jai Hindley -2’49
Stage 9 Summit Finish
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard -8
Jai Hindley -1’14
We can see that the gaps in the opening week were mainly opened on the three mountain stages, with time bonuses through the first two stages accounting for a slight cushion for Pogačar that has allowed him to paper over his (relatively) poor performance on stage 5.
Course Type Where Time Was Won/Lost Relative to Vingegaard
When looking at the course types where others in the other top two have won/lost time relative to Jonas Vingegaard, we can see that while Jai Hindley simply isn’t on the same climbing level as the top two riders, outside of stage 5, where Vingegaard took over a minute on Pogačar, the margins have been incredibly fine between the two favorites. Another trend to note is that Pogačar has been able to carve out 32 seconds on Vingegaard in just 4km of uphill attacking.
Mountain Stages
Pogačar -32 (lost)
Hindley -2’47 (lost)
Summit Finishes
Pogačar +32 (gained)
Hindley -3’21 (lost)
Time Bonuses
Pogačar +15 (gained)
Hindley +7 (gained)
Key Takeaways
1) This is shaping up to be an extremely close GC race where every second counts
With only 17-seconds separating the top two riders, this is the tightest GC margin between two legitimate overall contenders heading into the first (real) rest day since 2016,
But, even more significant than this tight time gap is the fact that both riders appear to be almost evenly matched in nearly every discipline. For example, when Pogačar appeared a gap to Vingegaard on yesterday’s final climb, he was never able to blow it open and the gap remained at just a few bike lengths for minutes.
And, the only instance where Pogačar was able to pry open a large gap between him and Vingegaard was on stage 5, when the climb flattened out in the final kilometer and he was able to use his superior raw power to distance the lighter Vingegaard.
With both riders’ fitness evenly matched, it could be more difficult for Pogačar to distance Vingegaard by more than a handful of seconds in the coming Alpine stages, where the climbs aren’t as amenable to explosive attacks.
With such parity of fitness between the top two riders, time bonuses will likely come into play in the final GC standings.
Pogačar’s 15-second advantage in this so far bodes well for his ability to continue to rack up crucial bonus seconds through the remainder of the race.
2) It is now clear that the narrative Tadej Pogacar would be out of shape due to his pre-race crash was extremely wrong
With nine stages of racing behind us, it is clear that the pre-race narrative that Tadej Pogacar wouldn’t be on top form, due to suffering a broken wrist earlier this season, heading into this race was clearly misguided and untrue.
In just 4km of uphill attacking, Pogačar has taken 32 seconds of real (non-time-bonus time). The fact that he is getting 8 seconds per attacking kilometer should be a concern for Vingegaard, considering there are plenty of uphill finishes remaining.
3) Pogačar has proven to be unbeatable on 10-15 minute-long climbs, so, to beat him, Jonas Vingegaard and Jumbo need to elongate the climbing efforts
When the two-time Tour de France attacked to take 8 seconds on Vingegaard at the top of Puy du Dôme on yesterday’s stage, he averaged an estimated 476 watts for the final 15 minutes (7.5 w/kg).
This is a similar effort to stage 8 at the 2020 Tour de France, when he rode away from the GC group with a nuclear 15-minute effort on the Col de Peyresourde.
It simply isn’t realistic to imagine anyone to exceed, let alone match, these efforts, so, limiting your losses on these ramps is all you can hope for.
If Jumbo and Vingegaard allow the pace to be low until the final 10-20 minutes of these low-altitude climbs, Pogačar will continue to ride away with high-power drag races, and Vingegaard will continue to bleed time slowly.
So, with the race going into the Alps, with its longer and higher climbs, Jumbo will need to employ its strong team to keep the pace high over multiple mountain passes and make the final climb a 30-40 minute high-power effort.
It might have been UAE, not Jumbo, setting the pace, but this type of all-day high pace leading into a final climb of over 20 minutes is how Vingegaard took time back on stage 5 of this Tour.
4) Despite being dropped on the last two mountain stages, Jonas Vingegaard is still in a stronger GC position than he was at the same point last year
It might seem strange, considering he has been dropped by Pogačar on the last two mountain stages, but just going by the numbers, Vingegaard is in a far superior GC position than he was at the same point of the race in 2022, which he ended up winning by over two minutes.
This was due to both his excellent climbing performances on the longer, less explosive Alpine terrain, and his third-week time trialing, which, throughout his career, has been better than Pogačar’s.
In 2022, Vingegaard beat Pogačar by 8 seconds in the 40.7km-long stage 20 TT.
In 2021, Vingegaard beat Pogačar by 25 seconds in the 30.8km-long stage 20 TT.
With a stage 16 time trial looming, and a 17-second GC deficit to Vingegaard, Pogačar will likely have to continue to take more time on his rival in the mountains.
Stage 10 Preview
Tomorrow’s stage, which keeps the peloton in the hot and hilly Massif Central and starts on a 5km-long, 5% climb and continues to serve up tough climbs for the next 150 kilometers, will serve up an unwelcome challenge for the riders, who are coming off their first day without a bike race for over a week.
Watch for an extremely hard pace from the gun as riders attempt to get into the early breakaway, which will almost certainly contest the stage win.
This pace over the opening 60kms could have the inadvertent effort of dropping any GC contenders who are sitting too far back, not properly recovered and/or warmed up, or simply feeling sluggish following a day without racing.
If this happens, expect the pace at the front to increase, and for the front GC group to re-absorb the early breakaway, making the race extremely chaotic as another break tries to re-form.
But, if the major contenders all come back together, expect the gap to the breakaway to blow out to an absurd gap and for the peloton to roll into the finish minutes behind the stage winner.
Unique take that Vingegaard is better positioned at the end of the first week than in previous Tours. The data comparing his TT to Pogacar's is fascinating, but makes sense in the context of their dominant specialties being longer (30-40 minute) efforts for Jonas and medium (10-15 minute) efforts for Tadej. Jumbo Visma might do better by making the race harder, like on Stage 5, to avoid having an easier run to the final climb where Pogacar can explode away, like he did on the Puy du Dome (Stage 9). Vingegaard's best form of defense might be to have his team go on the offensive.
Ineos Ghost Ship. Perfect. 🤣