Tour de France Rest Day Reflections
Breaking down what we’ve learned so far at the 2024 Tour de France & where the GC will go from here
After an action-packed opening nine days of racing, it is clear that the GC competition at the 2024 Tour de France, despite being controlled thus far by race leader Tadej Pogačar, is experiencing one of the deepest and highest-level overall classification competitions the race has seen in its modern history. Even with Pogačar consistently taking time on every other GC contender, except for ceding a small amount of time to Remco Evenepoel on the Stage 7 time trial, the race is still ultra-competitive, with three world-class GC contenders all lurking within 96 seconds and promises to only get better from here. Let’s take a look at how we got here and what to expect in the coming week:
Current GC Top Ten:
1) Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) +0
2) Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) +33
3) Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) +1’15
4) Primož Roglič (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) +1’36
5) Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates) +2’16
6) João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) +2’17
7) Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers) +2’31
8) Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step) +3’35
9) Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) +4’02
10) Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) +4’03
KOM (Polka Dot) Jersey Top Three
1) Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X Mobility) 33pts
2) Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) 20pts
3) Valentin Madouas (Groupama-FDJ) 16pts
Points (Green) Jersey Top Three
1) Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) 224pts
2) Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceunick) 128pts
3) Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X Mobility) 107pts
Catch Up Quick (become a premium member to receive full access to daily stage breakdowns):
Stage 1: Romain Bardet wins with a late, well-executed raid to take Yellow
Stage 2: Kevin Vauquelin wins from the early breakaway, Pogačar attacks the GC group
Stage 3: Biniam Girmay wins a bunch sprint
Stage 4: Tadej Pogačar wins after attacking over the top of the Galibier
Stage 5: Mark Cavendish wins a bunch sprint
Stage 6: Dylan Groenewegen wins a bunch sprint
Stage 7: Remco Evenepoel wins time trial
Stage 8: Biniam Girmay wins a difficult sprint
Stage 9: Anthony Turgis wins from a reduced sprint from the early breakaway, GC attacks play out on the gravel behind
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Where Time Has Been Won/Lost So Far
To discern how the GC race will play out in the coming weeks, let’s look at where each of the top four took or lost time so far. I’ve isolated every stage where the top three have won/lost time relative to each other so far and how much time they won(+) or lost(-).
Stage 2 Hilly
Tadej Pogačar +0
Jonas Vingegaard +0
Remco Evenepoel +0
Primož Roglič -21
Stage 4 Mountains
Tadej Pogačar +0
Remco Evenepoel -45
Jonas Vingegaard -50
Primož Roglič -53
Stage 7 Time Trial
Remco Evenepoel +0
Tadej Pogačar -12
Primož Roglič -34
Jonas Vingegaard -37
Looking at these numbers, what sticks out the most is that despite the non-stop exciting racing, just how few days have produced time gaps between the top contenders. In contrast to the recent Giro d’Italia and last year’s Tour de France, where time gaps were opened on five of the first nine stages, at this Tour, only three of the first nine days have seen daylight between the top four. Additionally, it is somewhat surprising that Stage 4’s ascent of the Galibier, which featured a fairly mild course and thin time gaps at the top of the final climb, currently stands as the most important GC stage thus far due to Pogačar taking time bonuses and blowing open his gap on the descent to the finish.
Course Type Where Time Was Won/Lost Relative to Pogačar
When looking at the course types where the other major GC riders have won/lost time relative to Tadej Pogačar, we see a picture of a rider in firm control of the lead, with the only time he has lost time was to time trial world champion Remco Evenepoel on Stage 7. And, even then, he successfully limited his losses. The fact that he has distanced the others at will when the road goes uphill but hasn’t had a single summit or uphill finish through the first nine stages means that he will likely take ample time on the three low-altitude, explosive summit finishes awaiting in the second week.
Mountains
Evenepoel -35 (lost)
Roglič -35 (lost)
Vingegaard -37 (lost)
Time Trials
Evenepoel +12 (won)
Roglič -22 (lost)
Vingegaard -25 (lost)
Hills
Vingegaard +0
Evenepoel +0
Roglič -21 (lost)
Time Bonuses
Evenepoel -10 (lost)
Vingegaard -13 (lost)
Roglič -18 (lost)
Key Takeaways
1) Tadej Pogačar Has Aced Every Test in the Opening Nine Stages: Pogačar has entered the Tour de France’s first rest day with a 33-second advantage on Remco Evenepoel and over a minute on his biggest rivals, Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič. However, outside of the raw time gains, the most impressive thing about Pogačar’s ride through the first nine stages has been his ability to take time on parts of the courses that were designed to keep the GC competition as tight as possible and didn’t feature parcours that would normally suit his ability to stack up time gains, like explosive uphill finishes.
While there should be some level of trepidation about Pogacar’s performance in the high-altitude climbs in the third week due to fatigue he may be carrying from the Giro d’Italia, at this point, we’ve seen nothing to suggest the Giro has taken anything out of him and that he isn’t on the best form of his career.
And while the conventional wisdom seems to be that Pogačar will get worse in the third week as Jonas Vingegaard gets stronger, the logic behind this isn’t exactly clear, especially since his well-managed spring training camps and the highly-controlled Giro d’Italia (Pogačar rode every stage at exactly the pace he and his UAE team wanted to ride it at) will have given him a far deeper base than Jonas Vingegaard’s disrupted spring training schedule.
And, as we saw on the brutally hard Stage 15 of the 2023 Giro d’Italia, which took place at altitude and was one of the most challenging stages of the season based on total kilojoules expended, the narrative that Pogačar is most vulnerable on all-out days of racing in the high mountains seems to be out-of-date.
One valid concern is how his UAE team left Pogačar isolated for extended periods during Stages 6 and 9. This highlights just how far we are from the predictions of UAE dominance and eventual podium sweep, and considering that the difference in team strength between him and Vingegaard cost him time on Stage 9, it highlights a key vulnerability.
But, with UAE still looking dominant on major climbing stages and Pogačar being one of the best Classics riders in the world, it isn’t clear how another team would exploit this weakness on flatter stages, except in the case of an ill-timed flat.
For example, when Visma isolated Pogačar in the crosswinds on Stage 6, the race leader didn’t hesitate to jump into the rotation at the front to protect himself from being dropped. When outnumbered on Stage 9, he responded by attacking his rivals to thin down their team support and level the playing field.
2) Even with Pogačar Looking Imperious, This is Still One of the Most Competitive and High-Level GC Battles in the Sport’s Recent History: Behind the race leader, the remainder of the Big Four GC contenders have already separated themselves from the rest and due to all of them sitting within 96 seconds of Pogačar, have set up one of the most competitive Tour GC battles in recent history, especially when we consider that all four riders are Tier 1 talents capable of consistently time trialing and climbing at a level that the sport’s other GC contenders simply can’t match.
But, even though they’ve done well to stay close to Pogacar, all three have shown weakness and have significant question marks hanging over their ability to press Pogačar in the last two weeks.
Jonas Vingegaard may be significantly outperforming expectations, but the defending champion is still consistently losing time to Pogacar and was ridden straight out of his wheel on flat roads on Stage 9.
This suggests that while his form is impressive, he hasn’t been able to build back to his usual level in such a short time frame. And, considering there is much more Pogačar-friendly terrain looming in Week 2, this should be considered a major sign of concern.
Primož Roglič has done an incredible job limiting his time losses, but he was on some of the worst form we’ve seen from him since his 2019 Giro d’Italia campaign through the first week.
Perhaps Roglič can right the ship after today’s rest day, but it is more likely that the upcoming summit finishes will make it harder for him to use his skill and toughness to paper over subpar fitness.
Remco Evenepoel is outperforming my pre-race expectations and is flashing what I believe to be the best GC form of his career. However, it is important to point out that these opening nine stages have been the most Evenepoel-friendly of the Tour, and things will get a lot more complicated after today.
Judging by Visma’s complete disinterest in taking time on him on Stage 9 when he was off the back, and Visma had Jorgenson and Vingegaard up the road with Pogačar, he clearly isn’t being taken seriously by his rivals as an eventual race winner.
It may be true that Evenepoel’s best chance to take Yellow has come and gone (the Stage 7 TT) and that he has struggled in the past on the exact type of terrain looming in Weeks 2 and 3, but this looks like a different Evenepoel, both mentally and physically, than we’ve seen in the past, and at this point, competitors write him off at their peril.
3) The Incredible Racing Through the Opening Nine Stages Highlights Just How Far Grand Tour Course Design Has Come in Recent Years: The most impressive thing about the relatively tight GC time gaps is that they have come after nine thrilling days of racing that have almost all produced strong storylines and aggressive, exciting races.
After nine stages of racing, the four best GC riders in the world are within 96 seconds of each other in the GC. We have seen an Eritrean win a stage for the first time in Tour history while grabbing a commanding lead in the Green Jersey Classification. We have seen 39-year-old Mark Cavendish break the all-time Tour de France stage win record and run one of the most exciting line-to-line stages of the last few years with Sunday’s trip onto gravel roads.
This is a testament to how much Grand Tour route-building has evolved and been refined into an exact science in recent years. Hopefully, this, combined with this revamped Giro d’Italia, shows that the bar has risen to the point where completely skippable opening weeks are a thing of the past.
Stage 10 Preview
While post-rest day stages are notorious for producing uneven and unexpected performances from top GC contenders, tomorrow’s Stage 10 serves up a somewhat straight-forward flat stage from Orléans and Saint-Amand-Montrond in central France. The only thing that could disrupt a standard bunch sprint is the presence of strong crosswinds, which could shatter the race into echelons and shake up the GC standings.
In addition to the battle for the stage win, watch to see if Biniam Girmay and Jasper Philipsen duke it out at the intermediate sprint since Philipsen needs to start taking back points if he wants to remain in contention for the Green Jersey.
Prediction: Jasper Philipsen and Alpecin-Deceuninck end their stage win drought in a bunch sprint but Biniam Girmay wins the intermediate sprint and finishes close enough at the finish to keep Philipsen from making back significant distance in the Green Jersey standings.
Check out the following bonus audio recorded while at Stages 6 and 7 to get a feel for how what it is like to be on the ground for a stage of the Tour de France (my biggest takeaway is how overwhelmingly popular Remco Evenepoel is with roadside fans):