Tour de Suisse Check-In: Stages 1-6

Breaking down what we've learned through the first six stages of the key Tour de France tune-up event

With Adam Yates leading and his UAE team looking like a world-leading Grand Tour machine after six stages and three summit finishes at the ongoing Tour de Suisse, the key Tour de France tune-up race has been showing the cycling world a teaser trailer of what their dominance at the upcoming Grand Tour might look like. However, while Yates appears to be free and clear of the closest non-UAE competition, Egan Bernal in third place, it appears that he will face a serious challenge from his teammate, João Almeida, sitting in second just 27 seconds back, over the weekend, which sets up several intriguing questions about what the leadership hierarchy of the team will look like behind Tadej Pogačar at the Tour and how the multiple ambitions and goals will be managed.

Catch up on the key highlights and takeaways from the first six stages below:

Current GC Top Five
1) Adam Yates (UAE) +0
2) João Almeida (UAE) +27
3) Egan Bernal (Ineos) +1’28
4) Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) +2’24
5) Enric Mas (Movistar) +2’38

Stage 4
4.9km-to-go: Nearing the summit of the massive Gotthardpass, the UAE team is massed on the front and lining things out with a pace increase. The gap to the breakaway is just over three minutes.

4.1km: The significant increase in pace sets up an attack from Adam Yates, who quickly builds up a gap on the rest of the field and has already cut the gap to the breakaway down to around two minutes.

3km: With Yates clear up the road, Mattias Skjelmose sets off in pursuit, with Yates’s UAE teammate João Almeida parked right on his wheel as they drop the rest of the GC contenders. Yates’ gap to the breakaway is already down to around 90 seconds.

Finish: Yates crosses the finish line just 23 seconds behind the stage winner, Torstein Træen, having closed down over 2.5 minutes in the last 5km. His teammate Almeida follows Skjelmose in 25 seconds later.

Stage Top Three
1) Torstein Træen (Bahrain) +0
2) Adam Yates (UAE) +23
3) Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) +48

Stage 5
5.5km-to-go: Halfway up the steep final climb, Almeida is setting a hard pace with race-leader Yates on his wheel that is stringing out the select lead group. Based on Yates’ estimated weight and the TV-displayed power data, he is doing around 7w/kg just sitting on Almeida’s wheel.

1.7km: With Almeida’s pace shredding the group down to just four other riders (including young American on IPT Matthew Riccitello), Yates eventually attacks.

1.6km: With Bernal and Mas responding to Yates’ massive 500+ watt surge, Almeida, knowing the effort isn’t sustainable, sits back on Riccitello’s wheel and ‘recovers’, before slowly reeling the fading Bernal and Mas and setting off in pursuit of Yates.

Finish: Yates crosses the line for the stage win, but, more impressively, his domestique Almeida crosses the finish line just five seconds back after pulling for a large portion of the climb and fighting back after Yates’ attack.

Stage Top Three
1) Adam Yates (UAE) +0
2) João Almeida (UAE) +5
3) Egan Bernal (Ineos) +16

Stage 6
3.5km: After yet another dominant leadout performance from his UAE team on an absurdly short 42-kilometer-long stage, Yates attacks on the steep slopes of the final climb.

1.1km: Instead of riding clear like in days’ past, Yates dangles in front of a hard-chasing Skjelmose and Bernal. When their chase lets off slightly, Almeida, who has been following, makes the bold move to attack and bridge across to his teammate, which carries the risk of pulling Yates’ GC rivals back up to him.

930m: Despite this risk, Almeida gets up to Yates’ relatively clean and immediately gets to the front to set the pace to help dispatch the quickly-closing chasers.

800m: Almeida’s pace on the front is a much-needed boost as the two UAEs ride clear of the chasers.

200m: However, Almeida’s pace quickly goes from friend to foe for Yates, as Almeida powers clear while Yates struggles to hold the wheel.

Finish: Almeida crosses the finish line to take the stage win, 10-second time bonus, and pull within striking distance of the race lead, with Yates coming in four seconds back.

Key Takeaways

1) The Brewing Adam Yates/João Almeida GC Duel Highlights Both the Advantages and Disadvantages of UAE’s Dominance: With Adam Yates leading the overall classification with his ultra-strong UAE team surrounding him at almost every point six stages into the race, it appears at first glance that he has this race locked up, especially because he has dropped every non-UAE rider on every summit finish and has a 1’28 lead over the closest non-teammates.

• But, this surface-level reading obscures the fact that his teammate, João Almeida, is sitting just 27 seconds back in the GC and looks stronger than Yates due to his ability to stay so close to the race leader despite performing a significant amount of pacing work on each of the final climbs.

  • Considering Sunday’s final stage features a 16-kilometer long time trial that favors Almeida to the point that he could almost be considered the ‘leader in the clubhouse’, it will be interesting to see how tomorrow’s final climb plays out and who paces whom near the end of the stage.

    • Looking forward, this embarrassment of riches at UAE sets up a very real possibility of a Tour de France podium sweep, assuming they can manage the multiple sets of egos, goals, and ambitions inside that squad.

2) Past Performances & Objective Performance Data Tell Us Why Yates and Almeida Are Serious Tour de France Podium Contenders: This race has also reminded us that while looking for potential non-Pogaar Tour de France podium contenders, his UAE team is the best place to look for one simple reason: they have hired some of the sport’s best Grand Tour riders who are consistently overlooked.

• Yates and Almeida’s dominance at this race shouldn’t come as a surprise when we look back through the Grand Tour results from the 2023 season.

  • In addition to finishing inside the top ten overall in all five of the career Grand Tours he has finished, Almeida finished third at last year’s Giro d’Italia, just over a minute behind Primož Roglič.

  • Yates, who finished third at last year’s Tour de France behind the sport’s two best Grand Tour contenders, Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard, was likely the fourth best stage racer in the world in 2023, and, at just 31 years old, there is no reason he can’t be expected to continue this level in 2024.

• While established GC superstars like Pogačar, Vingegaard, and Roglič and solid but slightly less decorated GC prospects like Juan Ayuso and Remco Evenepoel suck up all the oxygen in the conversation, proven riders just a tier below the top get lost in the shuffle despite riding at an extremely high level.

  • After all, when attempting to find well-performing Grand Tour riders, look for riders who have consistently performed well in Grand Tours.

  • If we look at the objective performance data so far from Suisse and compare it to Pogačar and Roglič this season, it quickly becomes clear that, at least on paper, both Yates and Almeida should be considered podium candidates and right behind Pogačar and potentially even slightly above Roglič.

    • Almeida/Yates 2024 Tour de Suisse vs Roglič Dauphíne vs Pogačar 2024 Giro

      • Pogačar Monte Grappa Stage 20 Giro d’Italia

        Time: 45:00
        Est. Power: 418 watts & 6.4 w/kg

      • Roglič Dauphíne Stage 7 Final Climb:
        Time: 31:50
        Est. Power: 396 watts & 6.1w/kg

      • Yates/Almeida Suisse Stage 5 Final Climb

        Time: 31:40

        Est. Power: 370 watts (Yates), 404 (Almeida) & 6.32 w/kg

• But, to underline the gulf between Pogačar and his teammates, his attack on Stage 15 of the Giro d’Italia, which came nearly six hours into one of the hardest stages of the season, was equal to the effort Yates and Almeida produced on the final climb of today’s 55-minute stage at a much lower altitude.

  • Pogačar Attack on Stage 15 Giro d’Italia
    Time: 20:00
    Est. Power: 450 watts & 6.92 w/kg *high altitude effort

  • Yates/Almeida Suisse Stage 6 Final Climb

    Time: 18:46
    Est. Power: 407 watts (Yates), 455 watts (Almeida) & 7.01 w/kg

3) Suisse Has Raised More Questions Than Answers For the Rest: If the Tour de Suisse has been a showcase for Almeida and Yates, it has raised questions about the rest of the Tour de France contenders at the race. Outside of last year’s winner, Mattias Skjelmose, who is sitting in third place, and Matthew Riccitello, who is sitting in sixth and potentially riding himself onto Israel-Premier Tech’s Tour de France team, the race has so far exposed major issues for riders like Egan Bernal, Enric Mas, and Tom Pidcock.

• While all three are currently sitting inside the top seven, and Bernal looking as close to his 2021 form as we’ve seen since his crash, this doesn’t solve their main problem, which is the fact that while they are looking to lead their respective teams at the Tour de France, they are being dropped at will by two riders who will be slotting into domestique roles at the same race.

  • Even in slightly subpar pre-race form, Mas’ position as Movistar’s leader is secure. However, Bernal and Pidcock's performances have done nothing to clear up Ineos’ extremely muddy Tour GC picture.

    • Combined with Carlos Rodríguez's less-than-definitive ride to fourth place overall at the Critérium du Dauphiné, Ineos appears to be to hurtling toward yet another ‘GC blob’ where they have four of five riders capable of finishing inside the top 15 overall, but lack both the raw strength and team cohesion to land on the podium.