Updated Transfer Analysis: What to Make of the Confusing & Complex Cian Uijtdebroeks Sweepstakes
Updating Visma's 2024 roster outlook after the shock signing of Cian Uijtdebroeks & breaking down a few major questions about how he will fit into the already-stacked team
Just minutes after hitting ‘send’ on Part 5 of my Weekly Transfer Analysis this weekend, which broke down the off-season performance of Visma-Lease a Bike (formerly Jumbo-Visma), the Visma team announced that they had completed an unexpected, and somewhat shocking, signing of Cian Uijtdebroeks, the 20-year-old GC Wunderkind who finished 8th overall at the 2023 Vuelta a España (the piece has since been updated).
The signing of such a talented and young rider has the ability to significantly alter the complexion of Visma’s transfer season performance and cast the loss of Roglič, one of the best and most productive riders in the sport, in a completely different light. For one, it sees Visma continue the transfer strategy they have utilized over the past few years by swapping an aging, highly-paid star for a unique and rising talent for a fraction of the cost, and sees the sport’s top stage racing team pick up one of the sport’s biggest young stage racing talents. In short, it is a major win for both the rider and the team.
Why This Transfer is So Complicated
While the unexpected mid-contract transfer of one of the sport’s biggest young talents to the sport’s top team is major news, hours after Visma released the news, the situation just got more and more interesting, with Uijtdebroeks former (or current?) team, Bora-Hansgrohe, claiming that their contract with Uijtdebroeks was valid through the end of the 2024 season and that the young star was still in their employ. Later in the day, the Dutch outlet Wielerflits reported that Bora-Hansgrohe is seeking a €1 million buyout from Visma to release the rights to Uijtdebroeks, which would allow him to race for Visma effective immediately.
As things currently stand, Bora is challenging the potential transfer with every legal lever they have available to them and preparing to fight the move, which means Uijtdebroeks’ racing debut for the team could be significantly delayed.
Further complicating things is the fact that the UCI rules on transfers are clear and state that transfers from one team to another require the old team and the new team to agree on terms and for the Professional Cycling Council, a UCI committee, to check these and rubberstamp the transfer before the season starts.
Even if Uijtdebroeks successfully handed in his registration on December 1st, as he, his agent, and Visma say (even if that isn’t really how contracts work), UCI rule 2.15.123 states that if a contract does not run its full term, a rider needs prior authorization from the president of the Professional Cycling Council to change teams.
Why None of This Matters
You may read the above rules and assume that things could get difficult for Visma and Uijtdebroeks, but it is important to remember that these UCI rules aren’t actual law, and, as such, don’t carry much weight.
In fact, if we continue to read UCI 2.15.123, it states that the punishment for a breach of this rule isn’t a significant ban from racing, but being ‘liable to a fine of between CHF 300 and 100,000'.’
In the end, EU law, which almost always favors labor over the employer, will allow Uijtdebroeks to race for Visma after paying a fine of less than the €1 million Bora is asking for.
In fact, this scenario is almost exactly what happened when Wout van Aert left his contract with the Vérandas Willems-Crelan team to race for Jumbo-Visma for the 2019 season.
Van Aert was able to race for Jumbo for that season but ended up being ordered by a court to pay a €662,000 fee to his former team (which was worked down from a €1.1 million initial request from his former team) in damages.
While the legal battle affected Van Aert’s wallet, it didn’t significantly affect his ability to race for Jumbo-Visma, and I expect the same thing to play out with Uijtdebroeks, which would be supported by Uijtdebroeks attending the Visma pre-season camp.
Having their hottest young prospect taken by a rival team might seem like a raw deal for Bora, but, if they were to speak frankly, they might very well be happy with the current situation.
Due to the signing of Roglič, infighting with teammates at the Vuelta (mainly the team allowing Aleksandr Vlasov to race for his own interests instead of Uijtdebroeks’s), and some gripes about the time trial setup, the relationship between Uijtdebroeks and Bora was already strained beyond repair, and he would have certainly left the team when his contract expired at the end of 2024.
So, in lieu of losing Uijtdebroeks for nothing, Bora will likely now get a nice payout for letting him go, which they can then reinvest back into their program.
How Will Uijtdebroeks Fit In at Visma?
It may be safe to assume that Uijtdebroeks will be suiting up for Visma come 2024, but the fact that he can make the move still doesn’t completely explain why exactly he is doing it. While most of the discussion around this pickup by Visma has centered around how the sport’s best team picking up one of the sport’s top GC prospects will lead to both Visma and Uijtdebroeks dominating grand tours for the next decade, I still have some concerns:
The conventional wisdom as to why the young Belgian is forcing his way off Bora, mainly due to the fact that Uijtdebroeks explicitly said it was a source of tension, is that due to the fact that team management allowed a fellow Bora rider, Vlasov, who has in 8th place overall, to attack on Stage 20 of the Vuelta and leapfrog Uijtdebroeks, who was in 7th place overall to start the stage, in the overall standings.
Additionally, Uijtdebroeks openly complained about his team’s Specialized TT equipment and its training methods a few weeks later at the Chrono des Nations.
Uijtdebroeks complaining about his teammate fighting him for an overall placing on the lower end of a top ten at the Vuelta, and his team’s setup at a time trial event almost nobody cares about, strikes me as a bit out of step with how most big champions conduct themselves and could cause major issues when he lands at a much more talent-stacked Visma team.
Of course, Vlasov, a 27-year-old rider who is looking to prove his worth as a GC contender to set up his next contract when his current deal expires at the end of 2024, isn’t going to lay down his personal ambitions to defend his 20-year-old teammate’s seventh-place standing in a grand tour, especially when he feels like he is stronger than him and could take that seventh place for himself.
If Uijtdebroeks didn’t want to fight for GC leadership with Vlasov and Roglič at Bora, how will he feel about navigating Grand Tours with the winners of the last two grand tours, Jonas Vingegaard and Sepp Kuss?
Furthermore, if he didn’t think Vlasov was the best teammate at the Vuelta, I can’t imagine he is going to enjoy racing the Giro d’Italia with Wout van Aert, who is going to that race to challenge for personal stage wins, not support a 21-year-old teammate’s campaign to finish inside the top five (especially when he may be in the GC hunt himself).
Perhaps this is unfair criticism, and Uijtdebroeks, who is also likely getting a major pay bump by moving teams, has noticed that the only riders to win Grand Tours in 2023 were from Visma and simply decided that it is the organization in which to develop as an elite stage racer.
If so, this could very well lead to him developing into the next Jonas Vingegaard under the tutelage of the proven Visma brain trust.
But, if he is going to thrive at the ultra-talented and competitive Dutch team, he is going to have to change his expectations about team support at grand tours and get used to intra-team competition.
After all, if Uijtdebroeks didn’t like being attacked by his Bora teammate while in seventh place at the Vuelta, wait until he learns what the eventual winner of that race, Sepp Kuss, had to deal with from within his own team while actually leading the race.