Vuelta a España 2023 Debrief: Breaking Down Exactly Where/How Sepp Kuss Won the Race
And what it can teach us about Kuss' future as a GC contender & where Jumbo-Visma goes from here
Thank you for reading the BTP coverage of the 2023 Vuelta a España. It was only possible to cover this great race due to all BTP readers and subscribers. BTP will be taking a short break to recover but will be back on Monday, September 25th, to break down the European Road Race Championships before gearing up for what should be a great final Monument of the season at Il Lombardia in October and some incredibly fun off-season deep dives.
After having a few days to ponder Sepp Kuss's incredible ride to get a highly unexpected overall Vuelta a España victory (and become the first American in a decade to win one of cycling’s three grand tours), I wanted to pause to break down how and where he won the race over his teammates/rivals Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič, as well as UAE’s Juan Ayuso, who finished in fourth place overall, and attempt to predict how this win will affect the future of the Jumbo-Visma team.
At first glance, the 29-year-old Sepp Kuss won after taking time due to getting into a massive breakaway in the chaotic opening kilometers of Stage 6, before taking the lead on Stage 8, and holding on for dear life until they arrived in Madrid to finish the race. But, upon further inspection, Kuss actually outrode his non-Jumbo rivals, and proved himself to be a potential GC contender at future grand tours.
The race might have allowed Jumbo-Visma, who kept the race interesting with their intra-team battle, which came to a head at the end of Stage 17 on the steep slopes of the l'Angliru, to highlight their dominance of the sport with their sweep of both the Vuelta podium and every grand tour on the 2023 calendar, but it also left a few major questions about the team’s future. By the race’s end, it was clear that their superior recruitment and development process, which has left them with multiple options to win grand tours, could also be their undoing since it was made clear to Primož Roglič, the team’s stoic center of gravity and still one of their most important UCI points and win collectors, that he will likely have to leave the team in the off-season if he wants to ever have another chance to contest the Tour de France.
Below is a numbers-based breakdown of how the race, which I believe was by far the best and most exciting grand tour of the season, played out and was won. For a reflection on the emotional impact, I recommend checking out Jonathan Kaplan’s RIDING WITH post on this Vuelta.
Final GC Top Ten:
1) Sepp Kuss (Jumbo) +0
2) Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo) +17
3) Primož Roglič (Jumbo) +1’08
4) Juan Ayuso (UAE) +3’18
5) Mikel Landa (Bahrain) +3’37
6) Enric Mas (Movistar) +4’14
7) Aleksandr Vlasov (Bora) +7’53
8) Cian Uijtdebroeks (Bora) +8’00
9) João Almeida (UAE) +10’08
10) Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain) +11’38
To help us digest the end result, and attempt to understand what exactly happened and where mistakes/winning moves were made, I’ve isolated every stage where the top three won/lost time relative to each other and how much time they won(+) or lost(-).
Where Time Was Won/Lost
Stage 1 Team Time Trial
Roglič +0
Vingegaard +0
Kuss +0
Ayuso -5
Stage 3 Summit Finish
Vingegaard +0
Ayuso -2
Roglič -6
Kuss -18
Stage 6 Summit Finish
Kuss +0
Roglič -3’02
Vingegaard -3’02
Ayuso -3’09
Stage 7 Sprint Finish
Vingegaard +0
Roglič -2
Ayuso -2
Kuss -2
Stage 8 Mountain Stage (Downhill Finish)
Roglič +0
Ayuso -6
Vingegaard -12
Kuss -12
Stage 9 Summit Finish
Roglič +0
Ayuso +0
Vingegaard +0
Kuss -9
Stage 10 Individual Time Trial
Roglič +0
Ayuso -42
Vingegaard -49
Kuss -1’00
Stage 12 Sprint Finish
Roglič +0
Ayuso -4
Vingegaard -4
Kuss -4
Stage 13 Summit Finish
Vingegaard +0
Kuss -38
Roglič -43
Ayuso -50
Stage 16 Summit Finish
Vingegaard +0
Ayuso -1’11
Roglič -1’11
Kuss -1’15
Stage 17 Summit Finish
Roglič +0
Vingegaard -4
Kuss -25
Ayuso -1’52
Stage 18 Summit Finish
Ayuso +0
Kuss +0
Roglič +0
Vingegaard -9
When the Top Four Won/Lost Time Relative to Sepp Kuss:
Week 1 (Stages 1-9)
Roglič -2’29
Vingegaard -2’33
Ayuso -2’43
Week 2 (Stages 10-15)
Roglič +52
Vingegaard +49
Ayuso +6
Week 3 (Stages 16-21)
Vingegaard +1’27
Roglič +29
Ayuso -41 (-1’23 before Kuss sat up to celebrate)
The above graphs and figures show us precisely what we would expect; that Sepp Kuss took time on the rest of the GC contenders, including his teammates Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič, with his Stage 6 breakaway, before Vingegaard and Roglič started reeling him in through the second and third weeks.
But, contrary to the narrative, Kuss didn’t win this Vuelta solely due to the breakaway and, even after sitting up to celebrate and losing time on the last few stages, actually put time into every other non-Jumbo GC contender after Stage 6
Ayuso: lost 35-seconds
Mas: lost 1’32
Landa: lost 1’47
And, while Vingegaard might have appeared to be the stronger rider on Jumbo in the race, he took most of his time on Kuss when Kuss was either working for him (Stage 3) or when he wasn’t marked by the others or Kuss (Stages 13 & 16).
When Kuss and Vingegaard were actually racing against each other on Stage 10 & 17, Kuss limited his losses to just 36 seconds.
Course Type Where Time Was Won/Lost Relative to Kuss*
Time Trials (Individual + Team)
Roglič +53 (gained)
Ayuso +13 (gained)
Vingegaard +11 (gained)
Individual Time Trials
Roglič +53 (gained)
Ayuso +18 (gained)
Vingegaard +11 (gained)
Mountain Stages
Vingegaard -46 (lost)
Roglič -2’09 (lost)
Ayuso -4’03 (lost)
Without the Stage 6 breakaway (without time bonuses)
Roglič +44 (gained)
Vingegaard +2’06 (gained)
Ayuso -1’04 (lost)
Time Bonuses
Vingegaard +18 (gained)
Roglič +8 (gained)
Ayuso -10 (lost)
*The time Juan Ayuso took back on Sepp Kuss while he sat up to celebrate on Stages 20 & 21 are not included
Kuss/Vingegaard Time Difference Per Stage Type
Individual Time Trial (1): 11-seconds per stage (Vingegaard)
Mountain Stages (6): 7.6-seconds per stage (Kuss)
Stage 6 Breakaway (1): 172-seconds per stage (Kuss)
Time Bonus (6): 3-seconds per stage (Vingegaard)
As you can see above, Kuss limiting his time losses to Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič in the Stage 10 individual time trial was key to his win.
Key Takeaways
1) Jumbo-Visma was put in a difficult PR situation once Remco Evenepoel imploded
It was easy to criticize Jumbo-Visma’s messy tactics in the final week, when Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič nearly ripped the leader’s jersey off their teammate’s back when they rode clear of Sepp Kuss on l'Angliru at the end of Stage 17.
However, while this undeniably looked bad, the team was stuck in a no-win situation due to the sudden collapse of Remco Evenepoel and the lack of any real GC challengers. Once this happened, the team was left with three options, all of them with significant downsides:
Order Roglič and Vingegaard to support Kuss through the entire third week:
Sepp Kuss, Jumbo’s loyal domestique, was a storybook winner for the team, but if they allowed him to ride uncontested for the entire third week, they would risk alienating their two biggest GC stars (Roglič and Vingegaard).
Primož Roglič, who currently ranks second on the team in 2023 win rankings with 14 victories (he had won every race he entered in 2023 before the Vuelta), is one of the team’s most important riders now and in the near future.
He had built his season around winning the Vuelta, and would have certainly felt cheated if the team had ordered him to sit back and allow Sepp Kuss to ride uncontested for the entire third week (considering that Kuss and Vingegaard were both confusing late additions to the start list, he likely does still feel a bit cheated) and likely would have pushed for a move away from the team in the off-season.
And, for Jonas Vingegaard, winning the Vuelta wouldn’t have been insignificant since he is currently attempting to build up a top-tier palmares, and he may not have enjoyed being ordered to pass up the chance.
Allow the three riders to duke it out until Stage 21 and let the strongest rider win:
This likely would have left Roglič and Vingegaard the happiest but would also have made Vingegaard, who had the most to gain from a Kuss collapse and Roglič’s aggressive racing, look like a greedy jerk who ‘stole’ a life-changing victory from a key domestique.
And, even if Vingegaard decided not to leave Kuss and let Roglič chase the victory himself, he risked ceding a key race to one of his biggest rivals for the 2024 Tour de France and potentially make his Jumbo team think Roglič was the better shot to lead the team.
The external optics of this strategy are always unbelievably bad, and would have risked turning nearly every cycling fan outside of Denmark and Slovenia against them.
Race in a combination of the above two options by keeping the racing ‘live’ through the hardest climb of the race on Stage 17 and falling in line behind whoever is the leader:
This combination option, which they eventually picked, created unideal optics and opened them up to immense criticism
But, by allowing Roglič to continue to race aggressively through Stage 17, they perhaps appeased him enough to keep him on the squad in 2024, while also delivering the win to Kuss, and collecting the publicity and goodwill that comes along with winning a grand tours with an underdog rider, as well as capping off their 2023 grand tour sweep with three different riders.
Even after landing the plane with a Kuss victory and a fairly cohesive podium sweep, it will be difficult to keep this team intact in the coming season.
And, even if they do complete that task, it will be nearly impossible to keep everyone happy with the limited leadership options their embarrassment of riches creates.
2) Sepp Kuss continued to take time on GC stars after his Stage 6 breakaway and could continue to challenge for grand tour wins in the future
Due to the circumstances of his win, which included getting a massive time cushion with to a breakaway on Stage 6, many will assume that Sepp Kuss was simply gifted this Vuelta and that he won’t be a threat for victory in future grand tours.
However, this would be overlooking the fact that while he lost time to his teammates Roglič and Vingegaard after Stage 6, even when he took the leaders’ jersey on Stage 8, he took time on every other GC contender, some of them being incredibly highly-touted GC contenders like Juan Ayuso, Remco Evenepoel and Enric Mas.
And, even though Roglič and Vingegaard took time on him, most of it was accomplished through attacks where Kuss sat in the group and marked his other GC rivals while Vingegaard rode somewhat uncontested up the road (Stages 13 & 16).
And, in the Stage 10 time trial, Kuss held his own against Roglič, Vingegaard, and Ayuso, all world-class riders against the clock, which played a significant role in his victory.
Some might debate if Kuss has the ‘winner’s mentality’ and can handle the pressure of sole leadership, but, from a physical perspective, this Vuelta showed that he certainly has what it takes to go up against, and beat, some of the strongest GC contenders.
3) Enric Mas & Team UAE were the big winners of the highly publicized Jumbo-Visma intra-team battle
Some of the big winners of the Jumbo-Visma intra-team battle sucking up all the press oxygen distracting from their races were Movistar’s Enric Mas and Juan Ayuso’s UAE team.
Mas, who has been considered a potential grand tour-winning rider since finishing second at the 2018 Vuelta, completely flopped at this race.
After a great opening team time trial, he went on to cede time to Kuss, Vingegaard, Roglič, and Ayuso on nearly every stage throughout the rest of the race. And, not only did he lose time, but he continued to ride in a frustratingly conservative manner designed to limit losses but never actually take time on anyone.
Combined with the fact that he has never won a European World Tour-level stage race, this Vuelta exposed the 28-year-old as simply not at the required level needed to lead a top team at a modern grand tour.
For comparison, his five career Grand Tour top-five finishes track similarly with Wilco Kelderman’s, a domestique on Jumbo, count of three.
Team UAE rode so poorly as a team that it raises serious questions about their ability to deliver Pogačar another Tour de France win
While the 20-year-old Juan Ayuso put in a solid performance to finish in 4th place overall, this Vuelta, which saw the UAE team race without any clear plan, and, at times, even against their own GC leader.
This confirms that nobody is up in the booth calling the shots at UAE and essentially ended any hope that they would ever be able to create and execute a well-defined and clever strategy for Tadej Pogačar to take on Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France.
4) Even the most impressive young stars have to continue to improve if they want to avoid becoming veteran also-rans
As expected, a talented young Belgian finished inside the top ten of this Vuelta. However, instead of defending champion Remco Evenepoel, it was 20-year-old Cian Uijtdebroeks.
Another 20-year-old, Juan Ayuso, put in an impressive ride to finish 4th place overall.
A 23-year-old Remco Evenepoel won three stages and finished on the stage podium six times.
These are incredible results; however, upon closer inspection, a troubling trend emerges: Ayuso and Evenepoel regressed from their performances from the 2022 Vuelta.
Evenepoel, who won the overall in 2022, suffered a major, unexplained collapse on Stage 13 that ended any hopes of defending his title.
The massive time loss meant that in four career grand tour starts, Evenepoel only has a single overall top-ten finish.
It is easy to wave off this as a bad day, but the uncomfortable fact is that riders who get into a habit of suffering sudden bad days in grand tours often have a difficult time ever consistently stringing together 21 consecutive days of racing without suffering a single bad day that costs them significant time.
While Ayuso should be applauded for being the first non-Jumbo rider and finishing 4th place overall at just 20 years old, it is undeniable that he appeared to lack the same sparkle he had in the 2022 edition of this race.
He lost time to every Jumbo-Visma rider in both the mountains and time bonuses, only gained 18 seconds on Kuss in the time trial, and would have lost to Kuss even without the time he gained on the Stage 6 breakaway.
It might seem like nitpicking to criticize riders this young, but it is important to remember just how critical it is for young riders, even ones this good, to continue to improve.
If Uijtdebroeks and Ayuso stall out in their development, in a few seasons, they will go from highly-touted future superstars to somewhat forgotten also-ran GC contenders like Mikel Landa and Enric Mas (who are very good and capable of GC podiums but aren’t considered superstars).
Full 2023 Vuelta a España Stage Breakdown List (become a premium member to receive daily stage breakdowns):
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Stage 6
Stage 7
Stage 8
Stage 9
Rest Day #1
Stage 10
Stage 11
Stage 12
Stage 13
Stage 14
Stage 15
Rest Day #2
Stage 16
Stage 17
Stage 18
Stage 19
Stage 20
Stage 21
Great wrap up!