Vuelta a España: Final Rest Day Reflections
Breaking down where the GC contenders have won/lost time so far during a wild Vuelta a España, and what it means for the race's final week
After 15 days of racing, Jumbo-Visma’s Sepp Kuss has defied even the wildest expectations by holding his sizable GC lead, which he built up via a breakaway on Stage 6, and refusing to cede significant time in the set-piece stages where everyone expected him to come back to earth. With the remaining parcours featuring his specialty (climbs), he appears to be in an extremely strong position to become the first American to win a Grand Tour since Chris Horner won the 2013 Vuelta a España.
However, even more impressive than Kuss’ unexpected lead is that his Jumbo-Visma team currently occupies all three podium spots. And, with their biggest GC rival, Remco Evenepoel, falling out of the GC after losing more than 27 minutes on Stage 13, and the closest non-Jumbo rider being 20-year-old Juan Ayuso in 4th at 2’37 back, there are no obvious contenders to unseat them before the finish in Madrid on Sunday. Let’s take a look at how things got here and what, if anything, the remaining contenders can do to challenge the Jumbo supersteam over the coming stages.
Current GC Top Ten:
1) Sepp Kuss (Jumbo) +0
2) Primož Roglič (Jumbo) +1’37
3) Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo) +1’44
4) Juan Ayuso (UAE) +2’37
5) Enric Mas (Movistar) +3’06
6) Marc Soler (UAE) +3’10
7) Mikel Landa (Bahrain) +4’12
8) Aleksandr Vlasov (Bora) +5’02
9) Cian Uijtdebroeks (Bora) +5’30
10) João Almeida (UAE) +8’39
Time Changes Between Top Five Since First Rest Day
Primož Roglič +52
Jonas Vingegaard +49
Juan Ayuso +6
Sepp Kuss +0
Enric Mas -33
Catch Up Quick (become a premium member to receive daily stage breakdowns):
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Stage 6
Stage 7
Stage 8
Stage 9
Stage 10
Stage 11
Stage 12
Stage 13
Stage 14
Stage 15
Where Time Has Been Won/Lost So Far
To discern how the GC race will play out in the coming week, let’s look at where each of the top five took or lost time so far. I’ve isolated every stage where the top three have won/lost time relative to each other and how much time they won(+) or lost(-).
Stage 1 Team Time Trial
Mas +0
Roglič -32
Vingegaard -32
Kuss -32
Ayuso -37
Stage 3 Summit Finish
Vingegaard +0
Ayuso -2
Roglič -6
Mas -6
Kuss -18
Stage 6 Summit Finish
Kuss +0
Roglič -3’02
Vingegaard -3’02
Ayuso -3’09
Mas -3’26
Stage 7 Sprint Finish
Vingegaard +0
Roglič -2
Ayuso -2
Mas -2
Kuss -2
Stage 8 Mountain Stage (Downhill Finish)
Roglič +0
Ayuso -6
Vingegaard -12
Mas -12
Kuss -12
Stage 9 Summit Finish
Roglič +0
Ayuso +0
Vingegaard +0
Mas +0
Kuss -9
Stage 10 Individual Time Trial
Roglič +0
Ayuso -42
Vingegaard -49
Kuss -1’00
Mas -1’17
Stage 12 Sprint Finish
Roglič +0
Ayuso -4
Vingegaard -4
Kuss -4
Mas -4
Stage 13 Summit Finish
Vingegaard +0
Kuss -38
Roglič -43
Ayuso -50
Mas -54
Course Type Where Time Was Won/Lost Relative to Kuss
When we open the hood and take a look at the course types where the top five riders at this race have won/lost time relative to race-leader Sepp Kuss, we can see that despite the assumption that Kuss, who gained significant time with a breakaway on Stage 6, would eventually fall back to earth and cede major time in the time trial and major mountain stages, the American hasn’t given up significant ground on either terrain.
Time Trials (Individual + Team)
Roglič +53 (gained)
Mas +15 (gained)
Ayuso +13 (gained)
Vingegaard +11 (gained)
Team Time Trials
Mas +32 (gained)
Roglič +0
Vingegaard +0
Ayuso -5 (lost)Individual Time Trials
Roglič +53 (gained)
Ayuso +18 (gained)
Vingegaard +11 (gained)
Mas -17 (lost)
Mountain Stages
Vingegaard -2’01 (lost)
Roglič -2’32 (lost)
Ayuso -2’44 (lost)
Mas -3’05 (lost)
Stage 6 (without time bonuses)
Roglič -2’52 (lost)
Vingegaard -2’52 (lost)
Ayuso -2’59 (lost)
Mas -3’16 (lost)
Time Bonuses
Roglič +2 (gained)
Vingegaard +6 (gained)
Ayuso -6 (lost)
Mas -16 (lost)
Key Takeaways
1) Sepp Kuss is in an incredibly strong position to win this Vuelta due to mistakes made by teams that are no longer in the GC battle
When the 28-year-old climbing specialist took over three minutes back on Stage 6, it was generally assumed that A) due to never being closer than 18’55 to winning a three-week race and B) riding his third grand tour of the season, he would fade as the race progressed and fail to be a factor in the final GC standings.
But, judging by the fact that Kuss limited his losses in the time trial and has taken time on his two biggest non-Jumbo GC rivals, Juan Ayuso and Enric Mas, on the mountain stages since then, the decision to let Kuss ride into the breakaway was an extremely poor calculation from the Ineos, Movistar and QuickStep teams.
An odd wrinkle here is that while QuickStep created the Kuss Monster due to being responsible for controlling the race back on Stage 6 due to having Remco Evenepoel in the race lead, he is no longer their concern due to Evenepoel crashing out of the GC competition due to losing 27+ minutes on Stage 13.
This means that UAE, who had a rider, Marc Soler, in the breakaway who never had a realistic chance of hanging on in the hardest mountain stages, made a massive miscalculation by assuming Evenepoel wouldn’t fall out of the GC (anyone paying close attention to his career would have known there was a decent percentage chance that he wouldn’t be in GC contention in the final week) and playing the Soler In The Breakaway card and sitting back while Kuss rode clear.
In retrospect, UAE should probably have snuffed out that Kuss could be a major problem for them in the third week, they would have to clean up the mess alone, and worked to keep him from getting into the move, and once he was there, not assumed that Soler also being in it neutralized the threat to Ayuso.
2) Primož Roglič is the strongest rider at this Vuelta
His teammate might be in the race lead with a solid advantage, but the quiet story of this Vuelta is that Primož Roglič is the strongest rider at this race.
Outside of an incredible time trial performance, he was able to close half a minute to his teammate Jonas Vingegaard inside the final few hundred meters of Stage 13 while nearly closing the gap to Kuss and dropping Enric Mas and Juan Ayuso in the process.
If we filter out the Stage 1 Team Time Trial and Stage 6 breakaway, Roglič has gained time on everyone in the race in head-to-head battles:
Primož Roglič +0
Jonas Vingegaard -7
Juan Ayuso -55
Sepp Kuss -1’25
Enric Mas -2’01Of course, final standings aren’t tallied on head-to-head times, but this is a good judge of raw strength so far at this Vuelta.
3) Jonas Vingegaard acting as a ‘sweeper’ in third place will make any attempted assault of the Jumbo fortress in the final week nearly impossible
Considering Ayuso and Mas have both either stagnated or lost time to both Kuss and Roglič since the last rest day (which isn’t a promising sign for a third-week comeback), the presence of the two-time Tour de France champion Jonas Vingegaard in third place overall will serve as a massive obstacle.
This is because even if Ayuso and Mas can get into a breakaway and/or drop both Kuss and Roglič, all Vingegaard has to do is mark their wheels (which is what he’s done over the past few stages) and sit in their draft all the way to the finish line to win the overall.
This fact is incredibly demotivating for Ayuso, Mas, and their teams since it all but eliminates any chance they have of catching out Jumbo on one of the fast, rolling stages remaining (aka raid stages), and means they will have to go all-in on dropping the Jumbo trio in a head-to-head climbing competition on the absurdly steep slopes of the L'Angliru on Stage 17.
4) We are no closer to knowing if Remco Evenepoel is a serious Tour de France 2024 contender
Coming into the race, we appeared to be on the verge of finally witnessing Remco Evenepoel, who, at just 23 years old, already has multiple World Titles, Monument wins, and a grand tour (2022 Vuelta) under his belt, go head-to-head against some of the sport’s best stage races.
Outside of exciting racing, part of the appeal of this was to see if Evenepoel could realistically challenge Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard at next year’s Tour de France.
But, after collapsing early on Stage 13, questions still remain about his physical/mental durability and, most importantly, the tactical chops of his QuickStep management team and their ability to map out a clear, well-defined strategic plan for three weeks of racing instead of viewing the race as 21 one-day races.
Even his impressive rides since Stage 13 haven’t answered these questions since they appear to be done without forethought and are simply an extension of the ‘let it fly’ strategy the team and Evenepoel have previously adhered to.
Stage 16 Preview
Tomorrow’s stage, due to being just 120 kilometers long along the rolling Cantabrian coast the day after a rest day, will likely produce fast, furious, unpredictable, and chaotic racing.
The challenge of the day for breakaway riders will be that riders able to win on the tough 5km-long, 9% gradient final climb won’t be suited to riding clear on the fast, rolling terrain where the breakaway will have to form.
Another complication is expected high speed and short distance, which means that the breakaway could take so long to form that by the time it finally gets clear, GC teams will be lining up to position for the final climb and could inadvertently reel them in.
If UAE and/or Movistar want to land on the overall podium, they need to start taking time back soon, and the relatively short, steep final climb is one of their best opportunities to attempt to drop Kuss by riding an explosive pace that dislodges him early on the climb.
Ayuso finishing 10 seconds ahead of Kuss, and getting the 10-second bonus for winning the stage, would get him within close enough to capitalize on a bad moment for either Vingegaard, Roglič, or Kuss on Stage 17.
Unfortunately, the presence of Roglič, who would be the favorite to win the stage if the GC group catches the breakaway, makes this incredibly complicated since he could use the stage to increase his lead over Ayuso.