Vuelta a España: First Rest Day Reflections
Breaking down where the GC contenders have won/lost time so far during a wild Vuelta a España, and what it means for the remainder of the race
Breaking Down What We’ve Learned About The 2023 Vuelta a España GC Contest So Far & How Things Could Play Out From Here
After an eventful opening nine days of racing, it is clear that the 2023 La Vuelta a España, at least at this point, is far from the two-rider duel that has become de rigueur in modern grand tour racing, and, instead, is a wide-open seven-way battle for the overall win. Jumbo-Visma’s Sepp Kuss, an American who is likely the best pure climber in the world, holds a substantial 2’22 lead over defending champion Remco Evenepoel, with five other major pre-race favorites (Primož Roglič, Jonas Vingegaard, Enric Mas, Juan Ayuso, and João Almeida) all crammed within a 33-second window behind.
Considering time gaps have been created between key GC riders on seven out of the opening nine stages, these slim gaps highlight just how competitive the racing has been and how close the physical level is between the top GC contenders.
Current GC Top Ten:
1) Sepp Kuss (Jumbo) +0
2) Marc Soler (UAE) +43
3) Lenny Martinez (FDJ) +1’02
4) Remco Evenepoel (QuickStep) +2’22
5) Mikel Landa (Bahrain) +2’29
6) Primož Roglič +2’29
7) Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo) +2’33
8) Enric Mas (Movistar) +2’33
9) Juan Ayuso +2’43
10) João Almeida +2’55
Catch Up Quick (become a premium member to receive daily stage breakdowns):
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Stage 6
Stage 7
Stage 8
Stage 9
Where Time Has Been Won/Lost So Far
To discern how the GC race will play out in the coming weeks, let’s look at where each of The Big Six took or lost time so far. I’ve isolated every stage where the top three have won/lost time relative to each other so far and how much time they won(+) or lost(-).
Stage 1 Team Time Trial
Mas +0
Evenepoel -6
Roglič -32
Vingegaard -32
Ayuso -37
Almeida -37
Stage 3 Summit Finish
Evenepoel +0
Vingegaard -5
Ayuso -7
Roglič -11
Mas -11
Almeida -11
Stage 5 Sprint Finish
Evenepoel +0
Vingegaard -6
Ayuso -6
Roglič -6
Mas -6
Almeida -6
Stage 6 Summit Finish
Roglič +0
Vingegaard +0
Ayuso -7
Almeida -14
Mas -24
Evenepoel -32
Stage 7 Sprint Finish
Vingegaard +0
Evenepoel -2
Roglič -2
Ayuso -2
Mas -2
Almeida -2
Stage 8 Mountain Stage (Downhill Finish)
Roglič +0
Evenepoel -4
Ayuso -6
Vingegaard -12
Mas -12
Almeida -12
Stage 9 Summit Finish
Almeida +0
Roglič -5
Evenepoel -5
Ayuso -5
Vingegaard -5
Mas -5
Course Type Where Time Was Won/Lost Relative to Evenepoel
When looking at the course types where the other major GC riders (riders high up in the GC who didn’t take time via the stage 6 breakaway) have won/lost time relative to Remco Evenepoel, we can see that despite winning the opening summit finish on stage 3, Evenepoel’s lead has been almost exclusively built in the opening team time trial and time bonuses, while he has given up significant time through the early mountain stages on every other major contender (not generally a good sign). Even though these losses were mainly isolated to a single stage (Stage 6), the long final climb on that day best represented what he will face through the rest of the Vuelta mountain stages.
Team Time Trials
Mas +6 (gained)
Roglič -26 (lost)
Vingegaard -26 (lost)
Ayuso -31 (lost)
Almeida -31 (lost)
Mountain Stages
Roglič +31 (gained)
Vingegaard +29 (gained)
Ayuso +24 (gained)
Almeida +20 (gained)
Mas +5 (gained)
Summit Finishes
Roglič +31 (gained)
Vingegaard +31 (gained)
Ayuso +24 (gained)
Almeida +22 (gained)
Mas +7 (gained)
Time Bonuses
Roglič -12 (lost)
Vingegaard -14 (lost)
Ayuso -14 (lost)
Mas -22 (lost)
Almeida -22 (lost)
Key Takeaways
1) Sepp Kuss leading the race highlights a major issue for, and a major weakness with, Remco Evenepoel’s Soudal-QuickStep team
While he wasn’t included in the calculations above due to taking nearly all of his time on a single stage (stage 6), but Jumbo-Visma’s Sepp Kuss sitting 2’22 in front of Remco Evenepoel is certainly a thorn in the side of the QuickStep, Movistar, and UAE teams.
The time deficit between Kuss and the other contenders is certainly serious, and Kuss will likely remain in the race lead after tomorrow’s time trial, but I think Evenepoel, Ayuso, Roglič, and Vingegaard will make up enough time to eventually overtake him (they could realistically nail back 1’40-2’00 over the 26-kilometer course), the fact that he, and Marc Soler, were allowed in the breakaway in the first place highlights the weakness of the QuickStep team and foreshadows issues Evenepoel could have when the race goes into the high Pyrenees on stages 13 and 14.
For example, what happens if Kuss, or even Vingegaard, goes clear on the HC climbs early on either of those stages? QuickStep has already signaled they don’t have the strength or desire to chase those moves down.
And even if they can keep Kuss and Vingegaard out of the breakaway, what happens when Evenepoel is isolated in the valley leading into the final climb on stage 14, and Jumbo starts sending Roglič, Vingegaard, and Kuss up the road, as they did on stage 11 of the 2022 Tour de France?
2) Unlike last year, when Remco Evenepoel built up a large early lead, the time gaps so far between the main GC contenders are shockingly slim
While he will likely take time back in the stage 10 time trial, Evenepoel’s current seven-second gap over Roglič pales in comparison to the gap of 1’53 he held over Roglič heading into the first rest day at last year’s Vuelta (which ballooned to 2’41 after stage 10).
Considering this 2’41 gap was shrinking rapidly in the third week before Roglič crashed out of the race, and that he has lost 19 seconds to Roglič in the individually contested stages at this Vuelta (every stage since the stage 1 TTT), and Evenepoel’s position in the GC starts to look less than ideal.
In stark contrast to last year, if we filter out the riders who took time on the Stage 6 breakaway, we can see these six pre-race favorites are all within just 33 seconds of one another.
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) +0
Primož Roglič +7
Jonas Vingegaard +11
Enric Mas +11
Juan Ayuso +21
João Almeida +33
And, if we filter out the opening team time trial (where Jumbo was delayed by a flat tire) in an effort to get a feel for how riders are comparing in head-to-head competition, Roglič has been the strongest, while Juan Ayuso has been second, Vingegaard third and Evenepoel is 19-seconds down.
Primož Roglič +0
Juan Ayuso +9
Jonas Vingegaard +11Remco Evenepoel +19
João Almeida +21
Enric Mas +36In my mind, these standings are the best judge of raw strength so far at this Vuelta.
3) Primož Roglič should currently be considered the favorite to win this race
Considering Roglič has been able to open gaps on the others despite the relatively muted racing summit finishes while also preventing Evenepoel from opening his patented early time buffer means that the three-time champion is in an extremely strong position, especially since he has been the strongest climber at this race and there are two big mountain stages (13 & 14) coming up at the end of the week.
While many viewers and pundits would point to Vingegaard and Evenepoel as Roglič’s main challengers, the fact that they have struggled to keep pace with Roglič on the type of long, sustained climbs that will start to appear at a greater interval later in this race, makes me skeptical that they will be his biggest rivals by the end of the race.
Instead, I would point to 20-year-old Juan Ayuso, who has ridden an incredibly smart, and low-key, race and has come the closest to matching Roglič up until this point. In addition to being one of the strongest climbers at this race, he is a world-class time trialist who will likely take time on Roglič on Stage 10.
Stage 10 Preview
Tomorrow’s 26-kilometer course time trial might be relatively short, but it will play a massively important role in the final overall standings.
For example, in the 30-kilometer-long Stage 10 time trial in the 2022 Vuelta, the closest rider to Evenepoel was Roglič, who finished 48 seconds back (a 1.55 seconds per kilometer loss), with the next GC contender being Miguel Ángel López (a good proxy for Kuss) at 1’47 back (3.45 second per km loss).
While this is a different year and a different race, don’t be surprised to see surprisingly large time gaps between the Big Six favorites (Evenepoel, Roglic, Vingegaard, Mas, Ayuso, Almeida).
The two biggest things to watch will be how Kuss manages his losses and how much time Evenepoel can take on the Jumbo-Visma trio.
If Evenepoel wants to win his second-consecutive Vuelta, he will need to unleash a ride as similarly dominant as his performance in last year’s Vuelta TT.
Evenepoel should look to take 30-45 seconds on both Roglič and Vingegaard if he wants to hold them off in the second-week mountain stages.
If Kuss can limit his losses to under 90 seconds to the best-placed non-Jumbo member of The Big Six, it drastically changes the calculus for the remainder of the race and will force Ayuso, Almeida, Evenepoel, and Mas to go on the offensive, even if that style of racing potentially sets up Roglič and Vingegaard attacks late on hard mountain stages.
Easily the most insightful rest day analysis that I have read recently. The benchmarks for relative performances will be interesting to follow during Tuesday's time trial. Thank you!