Weekend Preview: Il Lombardia

Previewing Saturday's Il Lombardia, the final major road race of the 2024 season, where Tadej Pogačar will attempt to secure his fourth consecutive victory

The final one-day Monument of the season, the Giro di Lombardia, or Il Lombardia as it has been re-branded, takes place tomorrow over 255 stunning but extremely challenging kilometers between Bergamo and Como in Northern Italy. The Race of the Falling Leaves is undoubtedly one of the most picturesque races of the season, but beyond the stunning aesthetics, it is one of the most challenging races of the season that demands a rare mix of world-class climbing abilities, one-day strategic nous, and the nose to finish off the win if things get tactical towards the end.

Premium BTP subscribers will get a quick text-only breakdown after the race on Saturday before the big Key Takeaways breakdown on Monday.

2024 Course Details

The race heads out of Bergamo and almost immediately tackles some major climbs (which have been slightly changed due to rain/landslides) en route to the iconic climb up to the Madonna del Ghisallo and the 13km-long climb of Colma di Sormano before dropping down to the finish line in Como, which has also been slightly adjusted to re-route away from the lake due to the risk of flooding.

Key Course Stats

• Kilometers: 255

• Longest Climb: 13.1-kilometers long at 6.5% (final 1.6km at 8.3%)

  • Tops out 42 kilometers from the finish line

• Distance Between Final Climb & Finish: 6 kilometers

• Vertical Meters Gained: 4,291ish (some sources cite 4,822m/15,820ft)

Course Difficulty

• As I pointed out before the World Road Race Championships, Il Lombardia is the hardest of the top one-day races of the 2024 season—the five Monuments plus the Olympics and World Championships—in terms of both raw elevation gain (4,822m) and the distance-adjusted difficulty rating.

  • 2024 Monuments + WCs + Olympics Difficulty Rating:
    1) Il Lombardia: 4,822m over 252km (19.13)
    2) Liège-Bastogne-Liège: 4,266m over 255km (16.8)
    3) World Championship RR: 4,291m over 274km (15.7)
    4) Olympic RR: 2,825m over 272km (10.4)
    5) Tour of Flanders: 2,172m over 271kms (8.1)
    6) Milano-Sanremo: 2,070m over 288kms (7.2)
    7) Paris-Roubaix: 1,414m over 260kms (5.4)

Key to the Race

Tadej Pogačar Is Nearly Unstoppable on This Course With His Current Form: With Primož Roglič pulling out of the race and calling quits on his 2024 season earlier in the week, Tom Pidcock’s Ineos team abruptly pulling him out of the race on Friday and Remco Evenepoel looking off his best, Tadej Pogačar, who has won the last three editions of the race, will take the start line as a massive favorite for the eventual win.

• Expect to see Pogačar’s UAE team make the race incredibly difficult in order to deliver their leader to his third-straight victory here.

  • While Evenepoel might have thought getting out in front of an impending Pogačar attack was a viable strategy just a few months ago, after his recent exhibitions at the Tour, Worlds, and Emilia, it has to now be clear to both Evenepoel and everyone else in the race that this is not currently a viable strategy.

    • Instead, any potential challengers will likely have to hope to match Pogačar on the brutal climb of Sormano, which tops out with just 42 kilometers remaining before forging clear on the run-in to the finish line if things get tactical.

      • Of course, this strategy hinges on Pogačar cresting that climb with any other riders on his wheel, which seems unlikely if Pogačar puts the hammer down since nobody outside of Vingegaard has been able to match his pace on sustained climbs in 2024.

  • Outside of Evenepoel, other potential challengers, and most likely, podium contenders, are Pogačar’s UAE teammate Marc Hirschi, who will have the freedom to sit on the chase group after Pogačar attacks (or perhaps even get up the road as Pogačar dares his competition to ride behind), Matteo Jorgenson, who has been the only rider looking to directly challenge Pogačar during this end-of-season run, Florian Lipowitz, who had an impressive ride at Giro dell'Emilia before being caught right before the finish, and Lennert van Eetvelt, whose incredible current form, honed at an extended Canary Islands training camp, and healthy confidence, could see him be one of the only riders even willing to attempt to follow Pogačar when the inevitable attack comes.

BTP 2024 Il Lombardia Contender Tiers
Tier 1) Tadej Pogačar
Tier 2)
Tier 3) Marc Hirschi, Matteo Jorgenson, Remco Evenepoel
Tier 4) Ben Healy, Florian Lipowitz, Lennert Van Eetvelt, Adam Yates
Tier 5) Toms Skuijns, Simon Yates, Romain Bardet, Aleksandr Vlasov

How/When to Watch

When to Watch: Saturday, October 12th: 4:25am-11:00am EST
How to Watch: USA: MAX, Canada: FloBikes, Europe: Discovery+/MAX/Eurosport