Weekend Preview: Paris-Roubaix
Taking a look at a few past trends from the 'Hell of the North' in an attempt to make sense of who could emerge victorious over the infamous pavé
New BTP Podcast: On today’s BTP podcast my co-host Andrew Vontz and I talk to Team Jayco-Alula Sport Engineering Director Marco Pinotti about how he has transformed the Australian team into a time trial powerhouse, answers our questions about how the team aims to get the most out of each rider and gives his prediction for Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix.
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Three Things to Consider Heading Into Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix
Paris-Roubaix, the one-day Monument over the treacherous cobblestones (pavé) of Northern France and one of the oldest races on the calendar, returns to its traditional Sunday slot in between the Tour of Flanders and Amstel Gold this weekend. Due to its unique and absurdly difficult route over a daunting gauntlet of ancient cobbled sectors, it is a must-watch (Paris-Roubaix for dummies).
For a more in-depth betting-specific preview and breakdown, listen to my OŪTCOMES podcast with Johan Bruyneel (if you sign up for a WEDŪ Membership and email me the confirmation, you get a year of premium BTP for free).
2023 Course Profile
Background
The presence of the Napoleonic cobbled roads has meant that in the past, the race was one for the big, burly cobbled specialists, but, in recent years, the specialist trend has faded at Roubaix, and instead, simply favors an incredibly strong rider. This mirrors the ‘merge’ trend we’ve seen across the sport and suggests that if Tadej Pogačar, the winner of last weekend’s Tour of Flanders, was racing, he would probably be considered the favorite to win.
Even though the course features almost no hills, it is sure to strip down the peloton and produce a small group to contest the win on the boards of the Roubaix Velodrome. The race is so selective that there hasn’t been a group of 10 or more riders contesting the win since 1967.
Predicting Paris-Roubaix is always difficult. While the strongest rider almost always wins Flanders, Roubaix has the unique ability to serve up wildcard winners like Johan Vansummeren in 2011 and Matt Hayman in 2016. While this can make predictions difficult, there is a common thread through most Roubaix winners.
1) Height and Weight Matter
Since 1960, the average weight of winners is 73.3kg/162lbs and the average height is 1.82m/5’11. This is quite heavy and tall relative to the peloton as a whole. And since 2000, 15 editions of Roubaix, or 77%, have been won by a rider over six feet tall, with only three winners (14%) under 5 feet 11 inches.
Two potential dynamics at play here are that aerodynamics matter less at Roubaix due to the rough roads and lower speeds, which means taller riders who are normally adversely affected in other races, finally get a chance to go pedal-stroke-for-pedal-stroke with smaller, more aerodynamic riders.
Also, due to the flat parcours and rough cobblestones, raw power is more important than the usual all-important power-to-weight ratio. Thus smaller riders will have trouble holding the wheel of powerhouses like Filippo Ganna who can produce 500 watts for 20 consecutive minutes over multiple rough cobbled sections.
Additionally, it could also be the case that taller riders have an eye-line advantage due to being able to peer over the group, and seeing where you are riding on the rough cobblestones is incredibly important.
2) This is an Old Man’s Race
An interesting and illuminating piece of data is the average age of recent winners.
Since 2015, the average age of the winner is 31.2 years old, which means we can guess the winner will be taller, heavier, and older than your average WorldTour race winner.
3) Having a Strong Sprint is Becoming More and More Important
A recent oddity at Roubaix is the lack of recent solo winners. After 10 solo victories between the years 2000-2012, there have only been two solo winners since 2013 (Niki Terpstra 2014, Dylan van Baarle 2022).
This means that to win the event in recent years, a rider has to be strong enough to power through insanely difficult sectors of cobblestones in the lead group, tactically aware enough to not miss the winning move on the ensuing pavement sections, and quick enough to win a sprint finish on the velodrome.
Who Will Win?
Recent Betting Odds Favorites & Implied Win Probability
Mathieu van der Poel +300/25%
Wout van Aert +450/18.2%
Mads Pedersen +750/11.8%
Filippo Ganna +800/11.1%
Dylvan van Baarle +1400/6.7%
Christophe Laporte +1600/5.9%
Matej Mohoric +2000/4.8%
Kasper Asgreen +2200/4.3%
Stefan Kung +2500/3.8%
Nils Politt +4000/2.4%
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