Weekend Preview: Paris-Roubaix
Taking a look at a few past trends from the 'Hell of the North' in an attempt to make sense of who could emerge victorious over the infamous pavé
Paris-Roubaix, the one-day Monument over the treacherous cobblestones (pavé) of Northern France and one of the oldest races on the calendar, is finally upon us as the riders prepare for the ‘Hell of the North’ this Sunday. Due to its unique and absurdly difficult route over a daunting gauntlet of ancient cobbled sectors, it is a must-watch event, even for those outside the pro cycling niche (Paris-Roubaix for dummies).
2024 Course Overview
Route Map
Course Profile
Need-to-Know Course Info
The presence of the Napoleonic cobbled roads has meant that in the past, the race was one for the big, burly cobbled specialists. However, in recent years, the specialist trend has faded at Roubaix and now simply favors an incredibly strong rider. This mirrors the ‘merge’ trend we’ve seen across the sport and suggests that if Tadej Pogačar were racing, he would probably be considered the favorite to win.
Even though the course features almost no hills, it is sure to strip down the peloton and produce a small group to contest the win on the boards of the Roubaix Velodrome. The race is so selective that there hasn’t been a group of 10 or more riders contesting the win since 1967.
Predicting Paris-Roubaix is always difficult. While the strongest rider almost always wins Flanders, Roubaix can serve up wildcard winners like Johan Vansummeren in 2011 and Matt Hayman in 2016.
One major wrinkle has been added to the course for 2024 that will likely have a major impact on the race. Instead of running straight into the brutal Arenberg Forest (the toughest sector of cobblestones in the race) at close to 60km/hr with roughly 100 kilometers remaining in the race, in an effort to reduce the chance of high-speed crashes on the cobblestones, the organizers have added a tight chicane at the sector's entry.
While this may succeed in reducing crashes on the cobblestones, the compression effect of the slowdown and speed back up at a critical section of the race will likely cause massive splits in the peloton right before a taxing piece of the course and potentially even create the winning move.
One positive of this (highly controversial) change is that a split caused by a severe speed differential compression is still somewhat merit-based (the riders who enter the chicane at the front are rewarded), and it means there is a greater chance of the top contenders fighting it out inside the final 100 kilometers, versus the lottery of the old Arenenberg entry where luck decided if your bike/wheel/tires exploded upon hitting the cobblestones at such a high speed.
Three Keys to Paris-Roubaix
While this can make predictions difficult, there is a common thread among most Roubaix winners:
1) Height and Weight Matter: Since 1960, winners' average height and weight have been far higher than any other world race.
Two potential dynamics at play here are that aerodynamics matter less at Roubaix due to the rough roads and lower speeds, which means taller riders who are normally adversely affected in other races, finally get a chance to go pedal-stroke-for-pedal-stroke with smaller, more aerodynamic riders.
Also, due to the flat parcours and rough cobblestones, raw power is more important than the usual all-important power-to-weight ratio. Thus smaller riders will have trouble holding the wheel of powerhouses like Nils Politt, who can produce 500 watts for 20 consecutive minutes over multiple rough cobbled sections.
Additionally, taller riders could also have an eye-line advantage due to being able to peer over the group, and seeing where you are riding on the rough cobblestones is incredibly important.
2) This is an Old Man’s Race: Since 2015, the average age of the winner is 31 years old, which means we can guess the winner will be taller, heavier, and older than your average WorldTour race winner.
In an era of wunderkinder, Paris-Roubaix remains the last playground for veteran riders to leverage their vast race experience.
3) Having a Strong Sprint is Becoming More and More Important: A recent oddity at Roubaix is the lack of recent solo winners.
After 10 solo victories between the years 2000-2012, there have only been three solo winners since 2013 (Niki Terpstra 2014, Dylan van Baarle 2022 and Mathieu van der Poel 2023), and since 2015, only 33%, or two out of six, winners have been solo.
This means to win the race, at least in recent years, there is a very good chance a rider needs to be strong enough to power through insanely difficult sectors of cobblestones in the lead group, tactically aware enough not to miss the winning move on the ensuing pavement sections, and quick enough to win a sprint finish on the velodrome.
So, Who Will Win?
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