Weekend Preview: Tour of Flanders

Previewing the hardest (and best) race of the year & breaking down how Visma's terrible showing on Wednesday at Dwars could affect Wout van Aert's chances on Sunday

The second of the season’s five Monuments, the Tour of Flanders (its actual name in Flemish is Ronde van Vlaanderen, but for simplicity, let's call it Flanders) runs this Sunday. It might not have the global brand recognition of the Tour de France or the jaw-dropping spectacle of its sister race, Paris-Roubaix, but in my opinion, it epitomizes the best of the Cobbled Classics and serves up a well-balanced race that produces the rider with the best combination of strength/skill.

• Premium Beyond the Peloton members will get an immediate take on Sunday after the race (via a Three Quick Thoughts post) before Monday’s full Key Takeaways breakdown.

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2025 Course Overview

For a brief course overview, the race twists and turns over seemingly every road in Flanders to get its massive 270-kilometer length (Milano-Sanremo might be slightly longer, but Flanders is harder due to its full distance being raced at an all-out effort for the entirety of the distance), and hits seventeen cobbled climbs, with some, like the Koppenberg, serving up brutally steep gradients (20%+), that has even forced riders to dismount their bikes and walk up and over the climb.

• Since the addition of the brutal finishing circuit that takes the riders over the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg twice in the final 58 kilometers, the race has become slightly more formulaic and rewards survival over early aggression.

• While it might lack some of the nuances of the ‘old’ Flanders, and makes it even harder to get ahead of the race to shock the favorites, it produces a completely honest result since, whatever happens, only the strongest rider in the race will survive the horrific circuit to emerge as the winner.

2025 Course Profile

Recent Form Is Key to Winning Flanders

In 10 of the last 12 editions of the race, the winning move has formed before the final climb of the Paterberg (Cancellara in 2013 and Sagan in 2016 won after solo moves that formed on the Paterberg), and only on two occasions in this same time period has a rider(s) that has been first over the top of the Paterberg been reeled in before the finish line (Greg van Avermaet in 2014 & Pogačar/Van der Poel in 2022).

• These trends tell us that in order to win a modern Flanders, a rider most likely has to have the form to launch and sustain a reasonably long-range move. The severity of the final few climbs means that hanging onto a group or sitting in a chase group and winning a sprint simply isn’t an option.

  • In fact, most of the time, a rider doesn’t even have to contest the win against another rider since a solo rider has won 11 out of the last 20 editions.

    • And, since none of the past 20 editions have had a group of more than 10 riders on the same time as the winner, even when you do have to sprint, it isn’t likely to be against a large group.

• Nearly every Flanders winner since 2010 has not only raced within a week of the event (often multiple times), but has also come into the race in flying form, as displayed in these races.

  • This fact becomes incredibly clear when we look at the number of days between Flanders and the last recent win, or significant result, of every winner in the last 14 editions. Out of the 14, only five hadn’t had a win in 10 days before the race.

    • Among those five, all had at least a top-ten finish in a major race within 20 days of the event.

      • Past Winners, Days Since & Last Results Before Flanders Win

        2024: Mathieu van der Poel - 7 days - 1st @ GW
        2023: Tadej Pogačar - 9 days - 3rd @ E3
        2022: Mathieu van der Poel - 4 days - 1st @ Dwars
        2021: Kasper Asgreen - 9 days - 1st @ E3
        2020: Mathieu van der Poel - 11 days -2nd @ De Brabantse Pijl
        2019: Alberto Bettiol - 9 days - 4th @ E3
        2018: Niki Terpstra - 9 days - 1st @ E3
        2017: Philippe Gilbert - 5 days - 1st @ De Panne
        2016: Peter Sagan - 7 days - 1st @ GW
        2015: Alexander Kristoff - 3 days -1st @ De Panne
        2014: Fabian Cancellara - 14 days - 2nd @ MSR
        2013: Fabian Cancellara - 9 days - 1st @ E3
        2012: Tom Boonen - 7 days - 1st @ GW
        2011: Nick Nuyens - 11 days - 1st @ Dwars
        2010: Fabian Cancellara - 9 days - 1st @ E3

  • Even if we set all of this aside, just looking at the results of the E3 Saxo Classic, which happens just under ten days prior to Flanders, can tell us a lot about what to expect on the big day.

    • For example, through the last ten editions of E3, the winner has gone on to win Flanders on three occasions (Niki Terpstra 2018, Kasper Asgreen 2021, Mathieu van der Poel 2024), with the winner of Flanders landing on the podium at E3 on six of those ten years.

How Visma’s Dwars door Vlaanderen Collapse Will Affect the Race

While an embattled Visma-Lease a Bike team aimed to signal that their recent issues were behind them, and that their ability to manhandle races with their extremely strong team, as well as their superstar leader, Wout van Aert, were back in full force, at Wednesday’s Dwars door Vlaanderen, their supreme failure leaves more questions than answers about their ability to contest on Sunday at Flanders.

71km-to-go: After multiple efforts from Wout van Aert on earlier climbs had stressed/broken up the peloton, Visma’s rivals are desperate for a rest. However, right as this is happening, Visma gets to the front on a narrow road and uses the crosswinds to split the field by increasing the pace and having the last rider in their train, allowing the wheel to go, which creates a gap they immediately exploit.

70km: The three strongest riders in this Visma group, Tiesj Benoot, Matteo Jorgenson, and Wout van Aert, quickly bridge the 40-second gap to the breakaway, which includes EF’s Neilson Powless.

55km: The peloton, which obviously has concerns about three riders from the same team being off the front, keeps the pressure on, with the remaining escapees only having an 11-second gap nearly 20kms after the initial attack. This slim margin is forcing them to work together seamlessly, which doesn’t leave Visma any room to exploit their numerical advantage.

5.5km-1km: However, even as their gap stretches out to close to a minute inside the final kilometers, the Visma trio allows Powless to sit at the back of the group, and don’t attempt to use one of their three riders to attack while the others sit on his wheel as he is forced to close it down. In retrospect, we know this is due to Van Aert telling the team he wants to take the win and wants to do it by going all-in for a sprint win.

300m: This all-in-for-Wout strategy becomes even more apparent when they head into the final corner in the top three spots, allowing Powless to sit in the coveted 4th wheel spot. In theory, Powless should be vulnerable to Visma letting the wheel go (Benoot in second wheel just letting Jorgenson in 1st wheel ride away), which would force Powless to start his sprint far too early, and give Van Aert the perfect leadout and almost guarantee him the victory.

200m: Benoot gives Van Aert a leadout, even as Powless sits in the wheels, getting a greater drafting benefit and under no pressure to launch his sprint too early.

Finish: This perfect leadout from Visma, along with Van Aert being forced to launch his sprint very early on a day when he had put in a ton of work earlier in the race, allows Powless to comes out of the wheels and passes Van Aert to take a massive, and hugely unexpected, race win.

How Did This Happen & What it Means for Flanders: It goes without saying, but Visma’s decision to allow Powless to sit in the wheels as they pulled him to the line with a 3v1 numerical advantage was a huge mistake and shows a near-absurd level of hubris, overconfidence, and disrespect for Powless.

• The fact that they failed to let a gap go between two of their riders in the final corner, which would have nuked Powless’ chances of victory, speaks to this, but it also shows us just how badly they wanted, or in fact needed, Van Aert to get back on track.

• In terms of attempting to explain how they could have possibly squandered such an advantageous situation, it begins to make sense when we consider two things:

  • The peloton chasing so hard (boldly led by EF, who smartly realized that chasing down their own rider would actually increase his chance of winning), didn’t leave Visma much room to exploit their advantage by attacking Powless from more than a few kilometers out.

  • The team’s current situation, where they desperately need Van Aert to be not only in top physical, but also mental form, prior to a showdown with generationally great riders like Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar on Sunday at Flanders, explains nearly all of these mistakes.

    • If we view the race through the lens of Visma trying to deliver Van Aert to victory at a race that derailed his season the year prior, in an effort to give him a key confidence boost prior to a major race where he is their only realistic chance of winning, the tactical missteps start to make sense.

      • After all, if Van Aert was unable to beat Neilson Powless, a rider who has taken nearly all of his seven career wins from solo moves, in a straight-up sprint, Visma has bigger problems than fumbling a potential victory at what their biggest competition at the upcoming Flanders would consider a Mickey Mouse race not even worth attending.

So, Who Will Win?

With Visma and Van Aert’s recent disappointment in mind, it is difficult to imagine anyone challenging the two heavy favorites, Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar.

In addition to their current red-hot form, illustrating just how heavy favorites Pogačar and Van der Poel are is their historically great past performance at this race:

• Mathieu van der Poel Career Flanders Results
  2019: 4th
  2020: 1st
  2021: 2nd
  2022: 1st
  2023: 2nd
  2024: 1st
  2025: ?

  • Through his first six editions, Van der Poel has tied the record for number of career wins with 3 (plus 5 podiums), and has never finished worse than 4th.

    • For context, this is a better haul than any other rider’s first six editions, including Eddy Merckx (1 win), Johan Museeuw (2 wins), and Tom Boonen (2 wins).

• The only other rider in the field with a similarly historically strong resume is Pogačar. The sample size is much smaller, but, like Van der Poel, he has a 50% win rate and has never finished worse than 4th.

  • Tadej Pogačar Career Flanders Results
    2022: 4th
    2023: 1st
    2024: Did not start
    2025: ?

• While Wout van Aert also has a very solid career resume at Flanders, never finishing below 14th in five starts, one legitimate question, even setting aside his recent issues, is if he is a strong rider in spring races.

  • For example, his best ever combination of Monument results was 1st at Milan-Sanremo and 2nd at Flanders in 2020, but these races took place in the fall due to COVID.

    • Since then, through nine starts, he has failed to win a Monument (though he has racked up five podiums), with his best result being 2nd at the 2022 Paris-Roubaix.

  • Most of his WorldTour wins come in the summer, with only 8 of his 28 career WorldTour wins (28%) coming before May.

    • In contrast, Van der Poel has taken 15 of his 23 career WorldTour wins (65%) in the months prior to May.

      • Interestingly, this stat also shows just how relatively few WorldTour wins Van der Poel has despite having such a massive level of success. For comparison, Tadej Pogačar, who is 4 years younger, has a total of 70 WorldTour wins.

BTP Flanders Picks
Favorites:
Tadej Pogačar
Mathieu van der Poel

• Considering Van der Poel has the superior sprint, and, as such, doesn’t have to drop Pogačar (who does have the pressure of dropping his rival), Van der Poel should have the edge in the duel.

  • Additionally, just looking at the raw stats, Van der Poel has the traditional advantage since he won last Friday at E3, and Pogačar won’t have raced for a highly unorthodox 12-day stretch between Milano-Sanremo and Flanders.

Podium Contenders:
Wout van Aert
Mads Pedersen
Neilson Powless
Filippo Ganna
Matteo Jorgenson

• The course is so challenging and the top two favorites are so strong that very few riders even have the ability to get in front of the winning moves, let alone get over the final few climbs with the front group, making the list of potential podium contenders extremely small.

  • So, continuing with the ‘recent form’ theory, Mads Pedersen (1st at GW), Filippo Ganna (3rd at E3), Matteo Jorgenson (9th at E3 & 4th at Dwars) are worthy ‘outside’ picks.

    • Consistently strong riders like Stefan Küng and Jasper Stuyven will look like tempting outside picks, but they almost certainly lack the climbing ability to respond to the nuclear-fast race-winning moves on the final few climbs.

How to Watch This Weekend:

Tour of Flanders Men’s
When: Sunday, April 6th, 4:00am-10:45am ET (estimate)
How to Watch: FloBikes (USA & Canada)

Tour of Flanders Women’s
When: Sunday, April 6th, 9:00am-11:45am ET (estimate)
How to Watch: FloBikes (USA & Canada)