Weekly Transfer Analysis Part 1: Bora-Hansgrohe Goes Big While Soudal-QuickStep Stalls Out

Bora signals they understand that to win big races, you have to sign superstars, while Soudal-QuickStep struggles to re-find their footing following the failed merger with Jumbo-Visma

Major professional cycling racing may be on pause at the moment, but the transfer market is currently alight with multiple high-value riders on the move in preparation for the 2024 season, and BTP will be breaking down the moves of every top team over the next few weeks for premium subscribers.

To kick things off, I’ve picked two teams, Soudal-QuickStep and Bora-Hansgrohe, that, at least up until this point, have had extremely interesting off-seasons but for vastly different reasons. While Bora-Hansgrohe just capped off a historically strong transfer season by signing superstar Primož Roglič from Jumbo-Visma, Soudal-QuickStep is capping off an extremely tumultuous few months where it appears their majority shareholder, Zdeněk Bakala, attempted to decamp with the team’s title sponsor, Soudal, to join forces with Richard Plugge at Jumbo-Visma, with one of the worst transfer seasons in the team’s history that has seen them ship out 2,367 Pro Cycling Stats.

BORA-Hansgrohe

• Notable new signings: Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma), Sam Welsford (DSM), Matteo Sobrero (Jayco-Alula), Dani Martínez (Ineos)

• Notable departing riders: Nils Polit (UAE), Patrick Konrad (Lidl-Trek), Sam Bennett (AG2R)

• Notable unsigned riders:

• 2024 Roster Spots Remaining: 2

• Pro Cycling Stats Points In/Out: +2379

After taking a slight step back during the 2023 season due to regressing to the mean after years of overperformance, the German team correctly deduced that their lack of a major points/wins-scoring superstar meant they had to take a big swing in the transfer market. Sure, they have a fleet of talented riders like Aleksandr Vlasov, Jai Hindley, and Cian Uijtdebroeks, but none of these riders are, at least currently, capable of scoring wins at the biggest races on a consistent basis (they didn’t have a single rider score over 1,000 PCS points during the 2023 season).

• To remedy this, Bora took a big swing by signing Primož Roglič out of his Jumbo-Visma contract in the off-season.

  • While I generally dislike the idea of putting a massive amount of resources (rumored to be a €3 million contract buyout plus a €6 million per year salary) into a 34-year-old rider, cycling’s major events, especially stage races, have become winners-take-all competitions where only riders in the extreme upper echelon (generally the top six) can win.

    • Even at his age, Roglič is still a member of the sport’s Big Six (along with Evenepoel, Pogačar, Van der Poel, Van Aert, and Vingegaard) and is one of the only riders who can consistently win WorldTour stage races, as well as challenging Pogačar and Vingegaard head-to-head at the Tour de France.

• Outside of the addition of Roglič, Bora successfully bolstered their ranks by bringing on Sam Welsford, Matteo Sobrero, and Dani Martínez, all extremely talented riders with a high upside who could flourish with the well-run performance backend in place in the organization.

• Patrick Konrad and Nils Polit are two quality riders heading out the door, but, as their massive PCS points surplus shows, they are more than made up for with the influx of talent.

  • In theory, the loss of Sam Bennett, the Green Jersey winner at the 2020 Tour de France, is a major loss, but with Bennett’s steep decline in recent years and the presence of riders like Jordi Meeus, winner of Stage 21 at the 2023 Tour de France, and Danny van Poppel means they likely won’t miss a beat when it comes to bunch sprints.

• This great inflow/outflow balance means that Bora-Hansgrohe has had by far the best off-season in the sport, and with two roster spots left to fill, they will only get stronger before the start of the 2024 season.

Soudal-QuickStep

• Notable new signings: Mikel Landa (Bahrain), Luke Lamperti (Trinity)

• Notable departing riders: Andrea Bagioli (Lidl-Trek), Mauro Schmid (Jayco-Alula), Fabio Jakobsen (DSM), Rémi Cavagna (Movistar), Ethan Vernon (Israel-Premier Tech), Florian Sénéchal (Arkéa - B&B Hotels), Davide Ballerini (Astana), Michael Mørkøv (Astana), Tim Declercq (Lidl-Trek)

• Notable unsigned riders: James Knox

• 2024 Roster Spots Remaining: 6

• Pro Cycling Stats Points In/Out: -2367

After years of managing his budget well by dumping expensive riders at their peak (and right before their performances drastically declined) and signing cheaper, up-and-coming riders, Patrick Lefevere appears to have finally run out of transfer market miracles with his Soudal-QuickStep team. Outside of time passing his once-dominant one-day Classics core by, the backroom turmoil of this off-season, which saw his main financial backer, Zdeněk Bakala, attempt to strike a deal with Jumbo-Visma to take the team’s title sponsor, Soudal, and best riders, to create a Dutch-Belgian superteam, has seriously dented his ability to restock the squad.