Programming note: This will be the final Beyond the Peloton update before the upcoming Christmas holiday over the weekend. The final weekly transfer analysis will be sent out the following week prior to the New Year before my in-depth BTP NET pre-season team ranking breakdowns are released early in 2023 for premium subscribers.

As the start date for the 2023 season continues to march closer, we will continue to take stock of who the sport’s elite riders are at each major discipline (grand tours, one-classics & stage winning) heading into 2023 to give us a clearer view of what to expect when these major events roll around.

Catch Up:
Ranking the 2023 Grand Tour Contenders
Ranking the Top 2023 One-Day Contenders

Ranking the Top 2023 Grand Tour Stage Contenders

To build off the last two weeks of tiering of the top 2023 Grand Tour and one-day contenders, this week we are separating the top grand tour stage-winning riders into five tiers.

Initially, I wanted this to be a breakdown of the sport’s top sprinters, but, after sorting their grand tour stage results from recent seasons, it became clear that the most prolific modern winners don’t necessarily fall into a pure ‘sprinter’ category (i.e. Wout van Aert) and some, like Tadej Pogačar, have been able to become the sport’s top stage hunters while balancing GC ambitions. Since the ultimate point of employing a sprinter is to maximize your team’s chances of winning the largest possible volume of races, it only seems fair to weigh sprinters against all other potential stage winners. Unfortunately, outside of making this project much more difficult, this expansion meant that a lot of talented (especially young) riders had to be left off.

Why This Is Helpful

As I outlined last week, the purpose of this exercise is to attempt to objectively cut through the noise and see who the best riders in each discipline are. This is especially important in the modern landscape since there is an odd inversion where the less a rider produces, the more media coverage they receive.

The Criteria

To delineate them into tiers, I am taking into account 1) top three results in grand tour stages over the past four seasons, with results generated recently given greater emphasis, 2) their age, and, most importantly 3) their likelihood to generate results (wins) in grand tour stages across the 2023 season.

While there is a nearly endless array of both established and emerging stage-winning talents, to qualify for the top four tiers, a rider must have won a grand tour stage in the past four seasons. While some of these younger riders, like Olav Kooij, Quinn Simmons, and Arnaud De Lie, may go on to win multiple grand tour stages in 2023, for the sake of this exercise, and to keep the list from ballooning to an unhelpful size, we are only focusing on riders who have already racked up a stage win. Additionally, since every grand tour doesn’t have the same level of competition, Tour de France stage wins are weighted above wins at the two other ‘lesser’ grand tours (Giro & Vuelta).

One major thing that stood out while pouring over these results was the undeniable trend in the modern iteration of the sport where sprinters struggle to dominate the stage-win count as the rise of more challenging courses, and more versatile superstars squeeze their opportunities for stage wins. This is especially prevalent at the Tour de France, where the higher level of talent, increasing stakes, ever-challenging courses, and, for the most part, the death of the pancake-flat transition stage, have made it tougher and tougher for pure sprinters to rack up wins.

Below, each rider is listed in their BTP designated tier along with the age they will be racing at in 2023:

The Tiers

Tier 1:
Reserved for riders who have proven an ability to win multiple stages at the sport’s top grand tours against the toughest competition, and, most importantly, have the ability to do so in 2023. This is obviously an incredibly elite group made up of riders who have the rare combination of elite talent and recent real-world results to back that talent up.

Tadej Pogačar (24)

2022: 3xTdF win (5xTdF podium)
2021: 2xTdF win (3xTdF podium)
2020: 2xTdF win (4xTdF podium)
2019: 3xLaVuelta win (3xLaVuelta podium)
- Totals: 10xGT stage wins (7xTdF), 15xGT total stage podiums

Wout van Aert (28)

2022: 2xTdF wins (6xTdF podium)
2021: 2xTdF wins (3xTdF podium)
2020: 2xTdF wins (4xTdF podium)
2019: 1xTdF win (2xTdF podium)
- Totals: 7xGT stage wins (7xTdF), 15xGT stage podiums

Primož Roglič (33)

2022: 1xLaVuelta wins (2xLaVuelta podiums), 1xTdF podium
2021: 2xLaVuelta wins (6xLaVuelta podiums), 2xTdF podiums
2020: 3xLaVuelta wins (6xLaVuelta stage podiums), 1xTdF stage win (4xTdF podium)
2019: 5xLaVuelta podiums
- Totals: 7xGT stage wins (6xLaVuelta, 1xTdF), 26xGT stage podiums

Jasper Philipsen (24)

2022: 2xTdF wins (5xTdF podiums)
2021: 2xLaVuelta wins (3xLaVuelta podiums), 6xTdF podiums
2020: 1xLaVuelta win (2xLaVuelta podiums)
2019: N/A
- Totals: 5xGT stage wins (2xTdF 3xVuelta), 16xGT stage podiums

Tier 2:
Riders who have both won in the past, and could again in 2023, multiple grand tour stages, but, their Tour de France success either lacks the required volume (Démare), year-over-year consistency (Vingegaard), or recency (Ewan) to land them in the top tier. Still, these riders will be considered serious potential stage winners across any grand tour they take part in during the 2023 season.

Arnaud Démare (31)

2022: 3xGiro win (4xGiro podium)
2021: 1xLaVuelta podium
2020: 4xGiro win (4xGiro podium)
2019: 1xGiro win (4xGiro podium)
- Totals: 9xGT stage wins (8xGiro, 1xLaVuelta), 13xGT stage podiums

Caleb Ewan (28)

2022: 1xGiro podium
2021: 2xGiro win (2xGiro podium)
2020: 2xTdF win (3xTdF podium)
2019: 3xTdF win (7xTdF podium), 2xGiro win (4xGiro podium)
- Totals: 9xGT stage wins (5xTdF, 4xGiro), 17xGT stage podium

Fabio Jakobsen (26)

2022: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
2021: 3xLaVuelta wins (5xLaVuelta podiums)
2020: N/A
2019: 2xLaVuelta wins (2xLaVuelta podiums)
- Totals: 6xGT stage wins (1xTdF, 5xVuelta), 8xGT stage podiums

Richard Carapaz (29)

2022: 3xLaVuelta wins (3xLaVuelta podium), 2xGiro podiums
2021: 2xTdF podiums
2020: 3xLaVuelta podiums, 2xTdF podiums
2019: 2xGiro wins (2xGiro podiums)
- Totals: 5xGT stage wins (3xLaVuelta, 2xGiro), 14xGT total stage podiums

Jonas Vingegaard (26)

2022: 2xTdF stage wins (4xTdF podium)
2021: 2xTdF podium
2020: N/A
2019: N/A
- Totals: 2xGT stage wins (2xTdF), 6xGT stage podiums

Tier 3
The level of talent in this tier is absurdly high as evidenced by world-class sprinters like Bennett and Groenewegen, a former world champion in Mads Pedersen and a superstar in the form of Mathieu van der Poel, and while they are all capable of winning multiple stages at any grand tour they enter, up until this point, they have lacked either the volume and recency of success at the Tour de France needed to crack a higher tier. And in the case of Van der Poel, his over-loaded schedule has siphoned off a significant portion of his stage-winning potential. The 2023 season will present a major opportunity for every rider in this tier to increase their standing, but, with so much quality occupying the tiers above them and the youth in the ranks below them, this will prove to be no easy feat.

Sam Bennett (32)

2022: 2xLaVuelta win (2xLaVuelta podium)
2021: N/A
2020: 1xLaVuelta win (2xLaVuelta podium), 2xTdF win (5xTdF podium)
2019: 2xLaVuelta win (6xLaVuelta podium)
- Totals: 7xGT stage wins (5xLaVuelta, 2xTdF), 15xGT stage podiums

Mads Pedersen (27)

2022: 3xLaVuelta win (7xLaVuelta podium), 1xTdF win (3xTdF podium)
2021: N/A
2020: 2xTdF podium
2019: N/A
- Totals: 4xGT stage win (3xLaVuelta, 1xTdF), 12xGT stage podiums

Mathieu van der Poel (28)

2022: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podium)
2021: 1xTdF stage win (1xTdF podium)
2020: N/A
2019: N/A
- Totals: 2xGT stage wins (1xTdF, 1xGiro), 3xGT stage podiums

Dylan Groenewegen (29)

2022: 1xTdF win (2xTdF podium)
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
2019: 1xTdF win (4xTdF podium)
- Totals: 2xGT stage win (2xTdF), 6xGT stage podiums

Tier 4
These are riders who are either veterans holding onto their past dominance (Cavendish), solid stage-hunting careerists who have emerged as consistent performers in the past few years (Cort), and young riders who make up for their lack of volume with scorching-hot upward trajectories (Evenepoel/Girmay) that indicate they will continue to build on their existing stage win palmares in 2023.

Mark Cavendish (38)

2022: 1xGiro stage win (3xGiro podium)
2021: 4xTdF stage win (5xTdF podium)
2020: N/A
2019: N/A
- Totals: 5xGT stage wins (4xTdF, 1xGiro), 8xGT stage podiums

Magnus Cort (30)

2022: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium), 1xGiro podium
2021: 3xLaVuelta win (4xLaVuelta podium), 1xTdF podium
2020: 1xLaVuelta win (1xLaVuelta podium)
2019: N/A
- Totals: 5xGT stage win (4xLaVuelta, 1xTdF), 8xGT stage podium

Remco Evenepoel (23)

2022: 1xLaVuelta stage win (3xLaVuelta podium)
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
2019: N/A
- Totals: 1xGT stage win (1xLaVuelta), 3xGT stage podiums

Biniam Girmay (22)

2022: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podiums)
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
2019: N/A
- Totals: 1xGT stage win (1xGiro), 2xGT podiums

Tim Merlier (30)

2022: 2xLaVuelta podiums
2021: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium), 1xGiro win (2xGiro podiums)
2020: N/A
2019: N/A
- Totals: 2xGT stage win (1xTdF, 1xGiro), 5xGT podiums

Tier 5
A collection of the sport’s top stage winners who either are struggling to win at the same rate they have in the past (Yates, Matthews, Sagan, Alaphilippe) but are still amongst the elite group of riders capable of winning Tour stages and up-and-coming talents (Pidcock and Groves) who have opened up their account at grand tours at extremely young ages but will be under pressure to increase their production in 2023.

Simon Yates (30)

2022: 1xGiro win (1xGiro podium)
2021: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podium)
2020: N/A
2019: 2xTdF stage win (2xTdF podium), 2xGiro podium
- Totals: 4xGT stage wins (2xTdF, 2xGiro), 7xGT stage podiums

Julian Alaphilippe (30)

2022: N/A
2021: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
2020: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
2019: 1xTdF win (3xTdF podium)
- Totals: 3xGT stage win (3xTdF), 5xGT stage podium

Michael Matthews (32)

2022: 1xTdF win (3xTdF podium)
2021: 2xLaVuelta podium, 2xTdF podium
2020: 2xGiro podium
2019: 1xTdF podium
- Totals: 1xGT stage win (1xTdF), 10xGT stage podiums

Peter Sagan (33)

2022: N/A
2021: 1xGiro win (3xGiro podium)
2020: 1xGiro win (5xGiro podium), 2xTdF podium
2019: 1xTdF win (3xTdF podium)
- Totals: 3xGT stage win (2xGiro, 1xTdF), 13xGT stage podiums

Tom Pidcock (23)

2022: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
2019: N/A
- Totals: 1xGT stage win (1xTdF), 1xGT stage podium

Kaden Groves (24)

2022: 1xLaVuelta win (1xLaVuelta podium)
2021: N/A
2020: N/A
2019: N/A
- Totals: 1xGT stage win (1xLaVuelta), 1xGT stage podium

Five Key Takeaways

1) Just like the last two weeks, Tadej Pogačar, lands in the top tier, and not only that but is the most decorated rider on the list.

This highlights the absurd depth of his skills and why he has to be considered the best rider in the peloton at the moment.
Few riders can win both one-day Monuments and grand tour overalls, but almost no one outside the all-time greats can combine those two disparate skills with the ability to become the most prolific modern grand tour stage winner.
If Pogacar can continue his current run of dominance for a full decade (no easy feat), he has a real opportunity to match the palmares of the seemingly untouchable Eddy Merckx.

2) Jasper Philipsen being in tier 1 shows us the Tour de France sprinting game has changed

Having Philipsen as the only sprinter in the top tier of this list might seem an odd, if not downright incorrect, assertion, but when we weigh the quality of each sprinter’s wins, Philipsen is the only one of the big six (Philipsen, Jakobsen, Ewan, Bennett, Démare, and Groenewegen) to have won multiple Tour de France stages in the past 24 months.
This claim shouldn’t diminish the impressive achievements of riders like Démare and Jakobsen at races like the Giro and the Vuelta, but in terms of grand tour stage wins, the Tour is the gold standard due to the far higher level of competition.
The fact that Philipsen, a young and extremely versatile rider who lacks the pure power/speed of his bigger, more traditional competition, has had the most recent success at the Tour de France shows us just how hard life has become for traditional sprinters as the sport’s main event has made their sprint stages harder and more selective. Due to this trend creating more interesting stages and eliminating the dreaded five-hour stage that slowly rolls to a pancake flat finish, it is unlikely to reverse anytime in the near future and means that younger sprinters will need to be far more well-rounded than those who dominated in the recent past.

3) However, even factoring in these changes in the sprinting landscape, and the rise of mega-talents who can dominate every discipline, traditional sprinters remain the most effective way to win grand tour stages outside the Tour

Tier Breakdown by Rider Type:

Sprinter: 9
- 1xTier 1, 3xTier 2, 2xTier 3, 2xTier 4, 1xTier 5
One-Day Specialist: 8
- 1xTier 1, 2xTier 3, 1xTier 4, 4xTier 5
GC: 6
- 2xTier 1, 2xTier 2, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
Pure Stage-Hunter (Magnus Cort): 1
- 1xTier 4

4) These tier breakdowns once again show the depth of Jumbo-Visma’s dominance over every facet of the sport

Teams with multiple riders:
BikeExchange: 4 (1xTier 3, 3xTier 5)
Jumbo-Visma: 3 (2xTier 1, 1xTier 2)
QuickStep: 3 (1xTier 2, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5)
Alpecin: 3 (1xTier 1, 1xTier 3, 1xTier 4)
EF: 2 (1xTier 2, 1xTier 4)
Just like the last two breakdowns (GC & one-day), the Dutch team has multiple riders in the top two tiers, providing even more evidence that they are a superteam in every sense of the word.
However, two interesting names here are BikeExchange, which leads the way with four total riders in the top five tiers, and EF, with two.
Notable single-rider teams:
UAE: 1 (1xTier 1)
Ineos: 1 (1xTier 5)
Ineos’ roster atrophy is once again highlighted with only a single rider present in the top five tiers.
- While this likely highlights problems behind the scenes at the team, the effect is that the organization is aggressively shedding high-priced veteran riders and is instead doubling down on untested, but extremely high-upside youth.

5) Mathieu van der Poel needs to focus on leaner race schedule management if he wants to increase his stage-win record

The soon-to-be 28-year-old Van der Poel, who is one of the most explosive and exciting riders on the planet, has had an extremely good run of success in one-day races, but at least up until now, his grand tour stage-winning record leaves something to be desired.
This is mainly due to his overly expansive race schedule, which, as we saw in 2022, stretched him thin and left him exhausted by the time the Tour de France rolled around mid-season.
This upcoming season will mark a major career point for Van der Poel. With slightly better race management, it isn’t difficult to imagine him significantly closing the gap to the elite riders in the top tier.

Beyond the Peloton

2023 Rider Tiers Part 3: Who Are the Top…