2025 Rider Tiers Part 2: Ranking The Top 20 One-Day Contenders

Breaking down where each major one-day contender stands as we slowly approach the 2025 season

Ranking 2025’s Top 20 One-Day Contenders

Building on our previous analysis of the top Grand Tour contenders going into 2025, I am picking the current top 20 one-day Monument* contenders in the sport and separating them into five unique tiers, using a combination of objective and subjective rankings. This exercise should mean that when the major one-day races arrive, you will be armed with objective data to fight through the often-convoluted list of potential contenders often thrown around by the cycling media.

Catch Up:
Part 1: 2025’s Top Grand Tour Contenders

• To place these riders into tiers, I am taking into account two main considerations:

  • 1) The number of top three results in WorldTour-level one-day races over the past four seasons, with results generated at top-end events (Monuments, World Championships & Olympics) and recently given more emphasis.

  • 2) Their likelihood to generate results (wins) in WorldTour-level one-day races (entire WordTour one-day calendar plus World Championships, Olympics and Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne) in the upcoming season, which gives an inherent edge to younger riders.

*’Monuments’ refer to a series of races that comprise the five most important one-day races on the calendar. Read more here.

The Criteria for Inclusion

While there is a nearly endless array of both established and emerging one-day talents, to qualify for the top four tiers, a rider must have either won a Monument or World Championship/Olympics road race in the past four seasons or landed on a Monument or World Championship podium within the past two years, as well as having results in recent seasons that indicate an ability to continue winning in the future.

• BTP One-Day Performance Score: To help me wade through the massive number of one-day contenders (which is a far more competitive landscape than Grand Tour contenders), I created an objective one-day score, which is a simple tally of every considered rider’s podiums in WorldTour one-day races (plus Olympics and World Championships) over the last four seasons.

  • This criterion has limitations, and it is bound to exclude talented up-and-coming one-day riders, like Isaac del Toro, who may go on to win multiple major one-day races in the future,

    • However, to keep the list manageable for this exercise and due to the fact that most Monument winners finish inside the top few places before winning a top one-day race, I am only including riders who have previously scored major world one-day victories.

Below, each rider is listed in their BTP designated tier along with the age they will be racing at in 2025:

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The Tiers:

Tier 1:
Reserved for riders who have won multiple Monuments and/or World Championships/Olympic titles in the last two years and who will be able to win the sport’s biggest one-day races against the sport’s best competition in 2025. This is obviously an incredibly elite group made up of riders who have the rare combination of elite talent and recent real-world results to back it up.

Tadej Pogačar - (26) - UAE

• 2024: 1st@Strade, 1st@Liège, 1st@GP Montréal, 1st@WorldChampionshipRR, 1st@Lombardia, 3rd@MilanoSanremo

• 2023: 1st@Flanders, 1st@Amstel, 1st@Fleche Wallonne, 1st@IlLombardia, 3rd@WorldChampionshipsRR, 3rd@E3

• 2022: 1st@Lombardia, 1st@Strade, 1st@GP Montreal

• 2021: 1st@Lombardia, 1st@Liège

  • Totals: 8xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

  • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 18

Mathieu van der Poel - (30) - Alpecin-Deceuninck

• 2024: 1st@Flanders, 1st@ParisRoubaix, 1st@E3, 3rd@Liège, 3rd@WorldChampionshipRR

• 2023: 1st@MilanoSanremo, 1st@ParisRoubaix, 1st@WorldChampionshipRR, 2nd@Flanders, 2nd@E3

• 2022: 1st@Flanders, 1st@Dwars, 3rd@Sanremo

• 2021: 1st@Strade, 2nd@Flanders, 3rd@Paris-Roubaix, 3rd@E3

  • Totals: 6xMonument/WC/Oly wins

  • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 18

Remco Evenepoel - (25) - Soudal-Quick-Step

• 2024: 1st@OlympicsRR, 2nd@lombardia

• 2023: 1st@Liège, 1st@San Sebastian

• 2022: 1st@Liège, 1st@San Sebastian, 1xWorld Championship RR

• 2021: N/A

  • Totals: 4xMonument/WC/Oly wins

  • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 7

Tier 2:
Riders who have both won in the past and could win major one-day Monuments and other World Tour one-day races in 2025 but didn’t have the raw win totals to qualify for Tier 1. If they are on the start list, these riders will be considered serious potential winners across the one-days in 2025.

Wout van Aert - (30) - Visma Lease a Bike

• 2024: 1st@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne, 3rd@E3, 3rd@Omloop

• 2023: 3rd@Paris-Roubaix, 3rd@MilanoSanremo, 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR, 1st@E3, 2nd@Gent-Wevelgem

• 2022: 1st@Omloop, 1st@E3, 1st@Bretagne, 2nd@Paris-Roubaix, 2nd@GPMontreal, 2nd@Bemer, 3rd@Liège

• 2021: 1st@Amstel Gold, 1st@GentWevelgem, 2nd@OlympicsRR, 3rd@Sanremo

  • Totals: 0xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

  • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 18

Jasper Philipsen - (26) - Alpecin-Deceuninck

• 2024: 1st@MilanoSanremo, 2nd@Paris-Roubaix, 1st@Brugge-De Panne

• 2023: 1st@Brugge-De Panne, 2nd@Paris-Roubaix

• 2022: N/A

• 2021: 1st@Eschborn Frankfurt, 2nd@Brugge-De Panne

  • Totals: 1xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

  • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 7

Tom Pidcock - (25) - Q36.5

• 2024: 1st@Amstel Gold

• 2023: 1st@Strade, 2nd@Liege, 3rd@Amstel

• 2022: 3rd@Dwars

• 2021: 2nd@Amstel, 3rd@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne

  • Totals: 0xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

  • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 6

Tier 3:
Riders who are able to win, but not be the outright favorite, at a good number of Monuments this coming season, but could very likely pick off a win at other major one-day races in 2025.

Christophe Laporte - (32) - Visma Lease a Bike

• 2024: 3rd@OlympicsRR

• 2023: 1st@Gent-Wevelgem, 1st@DwarsdoorVlaanderen, 3rd@Omloop

• 2022: 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR, 2nd@Gent-Wevelgem, 2nd@E3

• 2021: 2nd@Dwars door Vlaanderen

  • Totals: 0xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

  • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 8

Mads Pedersen - (29) - Lidl-Trek

• 2024: 3rd@Paris-Roubaix, 1st@Gent-Wevelgem

• 2023: 3rd@Flanders, 1st@Bemer Classic

• 2022: N/A

• 2021: 1st@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne

  • Totals: 0xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

  • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 4

Valentin Madouas - (28) - Groupama-FDJ

• 2024: 2nd@OlympicRR

• 2023: 1st@Bretagne Classic, 2nd@Strade

• 2022: 3rd@Flanders

• 2021: N/A

  • Totals: 0xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

  • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 4

Tier 4:
These riders have an outside chance of winning and a good chance at podium finishes at non-Monument one-day races in 2025. Due to the chaotic nature of one-day racing, if things go their way, any of them could win even the biggest races, but their varying places on the age/experience curve, talents, teams, and riding styles make them far less prolific winners.

Michael Matthews - (34) - Jayco-AlUla

• 2024: 2nd@MilanoSanremo, 1st@GP Québec

• 2023: 3rd@GP Québec

• 2022: 2nd@GP Quebec, 3rd@WorldChampionshipRR

• 2021: N/A

  • Totals: 0xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

  • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 5

Matej Mohorič - (30) -Bahrain-Victorious

• 2024: N/A

• 2023: 3rd@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne

• 2022: 1st@MilanoSanremo

• 2021: 2nd@SanSebastian

  • Totals: 1xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

  • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 2

Nils Politt - (30) - UAE

• 2024: 3rd@Flanders, 2nd@Omloop, 4th@ParisRoubaix

• 2023: N/A

• 2022: N/A

• 2021: 1st@Dwars, 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR

  • Totals: 0xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

  • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 2

Tier 5:
A collection of the sport’s top one-day talents who lack the Monument and World Championship accomplishments over the last four seasons to land in the top four tiers, but have produced top results at major races over the last two years and have enough upside potential to build on these performances and make a step up in 2025.

• Biniam Girmay-(24)-Intermarché: 2nd@GP Québec 2024, 3rd@Bemer 2024, 1st@Gent-Wevelgem 2023, 3rd@GP Montreal 2023

  • One-Day Score: 4

• Marc Hirschi-(26)-Tudor: 1st@SanSebastian 2024, 1st@Bretange 2024

  • One-Day Score: 3

• Maxim Van Gils-(25)-Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe: 1st@Eschborn 2024, 3rd@Fleche 2024, 3rd@Strade 2024

  • One-Day Score: 3

• Arnaud De Lie-(22)-Lotto: 1st@GP Québec 2023, 2nd@Omloop 2023

  • One-Day Score: 2

• Matteo Jorgenson-(25)-Visma: 1st@Dwars 2024, 5th@E3 2024, 4th@E3 2023

  • One-Day Score: 1

• Oier Lazkano-(25)-Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe: 3rd@Kuurne 2024, 2nd@Dwars 2023

  • One-Day Score: 1

• Ben Healy-(24)-EF: 2nd@Amstel 2023, 4th@Liège 2023

  • One-Day Score: 1

• Filippo Ganna-(28)-Ineos: 2nd@MilanoSanremo 2023, 6th@ParisRoubaix 2023

  • One-Day Score: 1

Qualifying Riders Left Out
The following riders have all technically qualified for the top four tiers, but because the rankings prioritize projected future performance over past wins, their lack of recent, consistent results at the biggest one-day races has prevented them from reaching the top tiers.

• Julian Alaphilippe - (32) - Tudor

  • 2024: 2nd@SanSebastian, 3rd@GPMontréal

  • 2021: 1st@WorldChamionshipRR, 1st@LaFleche, 2nd@Liege, 2nd@Bretange, 2nd@Strade

    • Totals: 1xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

    • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 7

• Dylan van Baarle - (32) - Visma Lease a Bike

  • 2023: 1st@Omloop

  • 2022: 1st@Paris-Roubaix, 2nd@Flanders

  • 2021: 1st@Dwars, 2nd@WorldChampionshipRR

    • Totals: 1xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

    • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 5

• Kasper Asgreen - (30) - EF Education-EasyPost

  • 2022: 3rd@Strade

  • 2021: 1st@Flanders, 1st@E3

    • Totals: Totals: 1xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

    • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 3

• Primož Roglič - (35) - RedBull-BORA-hansgrohe

  • 2023: 3rd@IlLombardia

    • Totals: 0xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

    • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 2

• Jasper Stuyven - (32) - Lidl-Trek

  • 2024: 2nd@E3

  • 2021: 1st@MilanoSanremo

    • Totals: 1xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

    • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 2

• Andrea Bagioli - (25) - Lidl-Trek

  • 2023: 2nd@IlLombardia

    • Totals: Totals: 0xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

    • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 2

Notable Did Not Qualify
Illustrating just how difficult it is to remain eligible for the top tiers, below are three consistent contenders and extremely high-quality riders whose recent Palmeres didn’t allow them to qualify for the tiers above.

• Benoot, Küng, and Skujiņš all finished in the top three at major one-day races in 2024, yet they still didn’t crack the top four tiers.

  • Skujiņš was also one of the main animators throughout the spring and was strong enough to finish in the top five at both the World Championship and Olympic road races.

    • Interestingly, unlike the Grand Tour tiers, where these non-qualifying riders are unlikely to seriously challenge for an overall win in the coming season, there is a decent chance that one of them could play spoiler at a major one-day event in 2025.

• Tiesj Benoot - (30) - Visma Lease a Bike

  • 2024: 3rd@Amstel

  • 2023: 1st@Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne, 3rd@Strade

  • 2022: 2nd@Dwars door Vlaanderen, 3rd@San Sebastian, 3rd@Amstel

    • Totals: 0xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

    • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 5

• Stefan Küng - (31) - Groupama-FDJ

  • 2024: 3rd@Dwars, 5th@ParisRoubaix, 7th@OlympicsRR

  • 2023: 5th@ParisRoubaix, 5th@WC, 6th@Flanders

  • 2022: 3rd@ParisRoubaix, 3rd@E3

    • Totals: 0xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

    • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 3

• Toms Skujiņš - (33) - Lidl-Trek

  • 2024: 2nd@Strade, 4th@WorldChampionships, 5th@OlympicsRR

    • Totals: 0xMonument/WC/Oly Wins

    • BTP 2024-2021 One-Day Score: 1

Three Key Takeaways

1) Fewer and Fewer Riders Have the Ability to Win Major One-Day Races: While building this list, the most striking feature was the sheer rarity of riders who consistently win the sport’s biggest one-day races.

• In fact, only nine active riders have won a Monument in the last four seasons (out of 20), with Pogačar, van der Poel, and Evenepoel accounting for 70% of those wins.

  • This narrowing of potential winners is highlighted even further when we consider that just four riders (from just three teams) won all ten Monuments that have run in the past two seasons.

    • This lack of one-day parity has seen a rider even as talented as Wout van Aert relegated down to Tier 2 due to being squeezed out of the Monument winner’s circle over the last four years.

• In addition to top wins clustering with a few top riders, another mind-bending trend is how the lists of top grand tour riders and top one-day riders blend together.

  • For example, 2/3rds of the Tier 1 riders were also included in the two top tiers of the Grand Tour rider rankings, and three Grand Tour riders, Evenepoel, Pogačar, and Jorgenson, landed in the top twenty-one-day racers.

2) The Modern Ultra-Aggressive Style of Racing is to Blame for This Narrowing of Potential Winners. The top riders transitioning to hammer-blow racing tactics, where they attack from long distances (up to 100 kilometers from the finish line), has made the top races so selective that only three or four riders on the startline have the physical ability to even be in contention for the eventual win.

• In fact, 12 out of the last 13 major one-day races (Monuments + Olympics + World Championships) were won after the strongest rider in the race launched a solo attack, with an average distance-to-finish of just over 36 kilometers during the 2024 season.

  • For contrast, between 2018 and 2019, only seven out of the 12 biggest one-day races were won with solo attacks. None came from further than 20 kilometers from the finish line, and multiple produced a winner who wasn’t necessarily the strongest rider in the race but the one who timed their effort the best.

    • This simple comparison shows just how absurdly rapidly the one-day races have shifted from tactical battles for positions to simple contests of raw strength.

3) The Upper Tiers of One-Day Contenders Are Surprisingly Spread Out Over Multiple Teams: Unlike the top Grand Tour contenders, the sport's top one-day riders are fairly dispersed, with the top 20 riders spread over 15 teams.

• Tier Team Power Rankings:
  1) Visma: 3 (1xTier 2, 1xTier 3, 1xTier 5)
  2) Alpecin-Deceuninck: 2 (1xTier 1, 1xTier 2)
  3) UAE: 2 (1xTier 1, 1xTier 4)
  4) Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe: 2 (1xTier 5)

  5) Soudal-QuickStep: 1 (1xTier 1)
  6) Q36.5: 1 (1xTier 2)
  7) Lidl-Trek: 1 (1xTier 3)
  8) Groupama-FDJ 1(1xTier 3)
  9) Jayco AlUla: 1 (1xTier 4)
  10) Bahrain-Victorious: 1 (1xTier 4)
  11) EF Education-EasyPost: 1 (1xTier 5)
  12) Lotto: 1 (1xTier 5)
  13) Intermarche-Wanty: 1 (1xTier 5)
  14) Tudor: 1 (1xTier 5)
  15) Ineos: 1 (1xTier 5)

  • The fruits of RedBull’s off-season ambition really comes into focus when we consider that both of their tiered riders (Lazkano and Van Gils), are new signings.

  • Visma-Lease a Bike might have been brought back down to earth in 2024 after a historically great 2023, but with a sport-leading total of three tiered riders, their Classics depth is still unmatched and will have them back at the front in 2025.

  • The emergence of Jasper Philipsen as a Monument winner and consistent one-day challenger has given his Alpecin-Deceuninck team depth at the top end that only Visma and UAE can match.

  • Three second-division teams (ProTeams), Lotto, Tudor, and Q36.5, all had at least one tiered rider. This highlights just how deep and competitive the sport’s lower division is currently and how difficult it will be to earn wildcard invitations to Grand Tours in 2025.