BTP Fantasy League: Join the BTP Tour de France Fantasy League to compete against me and the other readers:
VeloGames Signup Link
League Name: BeyondthePeloton_Tour2022
League Code: 242613525

OŪTCOMES Podcast Tour de France GC Preview

Apple Podcasts Link

I recently started a new daily grand tour podcast, called OŪTCOMES, with former USPS/Discovery/Astana team manager Johan Bruyneel, who is now one of the sharpest and best-informed cycling pundits in the game and brings a wealth of on-the-ground experience and information to add to/counter my race analysis. If you want to continue to listen to the OŪTCOMES stage preview show daily, you will have to become a WEDŪ (the creators/producers of the show) season pass member (link to sign up).

*I understand that subscribing to two premium cycling content sources is a big ask, so, if you do become a WEDŪ paying member and reply to this email with a screenshot of your purchase, I will give you 12-months of premium BTP newsletter access for free (if you are already a premium BTP subscriber and want to take advantage of this deal, I will extend your current subscription to cover the costs of a single annual WEDŪ season pass).

2022 Tour de France Cheat-Sheet & Course Map

Stage List:
Stage 1: Copenhagen > Copenhagen (13km): ITT
Stage 2: Roskilde > Nyborg (199km): Flat
Stage 3: Vieje > Sonderborg (182 km): Flat
Rest Day- July 5th: Lille
Stage 4: Dunkirk > Calais (172km): Hilly
Stage 5: Lille > Wallers-Arenberg (155km): Cobblestones
Stage 6: Binche > Longwy (220km): Hilly
Stage 7: Tomblaine > La Super Planche des Belles Filles (176km): Uphill/Medium Mountain
Stage 8: Dole > Lausanne (184km): Hilly/Medium Mountain Stage
Stage 9: Aigle > Châtel (183km): Hilly/Medium Mountain Stage
Rest Day - July 11: Morzine
Stage 10: Morzine > Mégève (148km): Hilly/Medium Mountain Stage
Stage 11: Albertville > Col du Granon (149km): Mountain Summit Finish
Stage 12: Briançon> Alpe d'Huez (166km): Mountain Summit Finish
Stage 13: Bourg d'Oisans > Saint-Etienne (193km): Hilly
Stage 14: Saint-Etienne > Mende (195km): Hilly
Stage 15: Rodez > Carcassonne (200km): Flat
July 18: Carcassonne rest day
Stage 16: Carcassonne > Foix (179km): Mountains
Stage 17: Saint-Gaudens > Peyragudes (130km): Mountain Summit Finish
Stage 18: Lourdes > Hautacam (143km): Mountain Summit Finish
Stage 19: Castelnau-Magnoac > Cahors (189km): Flat
Stage 20: Lacapelle-Marivale > Rocamadour (40km): ITT
Stage 21: Paris > Paris (112 km): Flat

Quick Breakdown by Stage Type:

8 Mountain Stages
- 5 Summit Finishes

5 Flat Stages
- 1 with an 18km-long highly exposed bridge (aka chaos)
5 Hilly Stages
2 Individual Time Trials
- 53-kilometers
1 Cobbled Stage
- 19.4-kilometers of cobblestones

Key Route Takeaways:

Despite being the Tour de France, the race starts in Denmark (long story short, Denmark wrote a hefty check to Tour organizers for this privilege) and the opening three stages all take place outside of France.
While the opening three stages in Denmark appear to have the profile of classic, boring opening stages, the unpredictable wind, and weather coming off the North Sea, not to mention the extensive road furniture, could create early time gaps. Particularly notable is the 18-kilometer-long bridge before the finish on stage 2.
The race will miss the west coast of France entirely, which means we will get far fewer ‘filler’ flat stages and offer more explosive hilly stages that could (hopefully) shake up the GC. And with only a single stage over 200 kilometers, the Tour is clearly banking on shorter stages packing more of a racing punch.
This also means we will get far fewer sprint stages than normal (which likely contributed to QuickStep’s decision to leave Mark Cavendish at home). While there are a total of five ‘flat’ days, none are back-to-back once we leave Denmark and with such a stacked selection of versatile one-day and stage-hunting type riders, it certainly isn’t guaranteed that these flat stages will produce bunch sprints.
The 53-kilometers of time trials is the 3rd highest TT total since 2015, and combined with the five summit finishes, means the eventual winner will almost certainly have to be both a world-class time trialist and climber.

Overall Contenders

Current Betting Odds:
Tadej Pogačar -167
Primož Roglič +400
Jonas Vingegaard +450
Geraint Thomas +1400
Aleksandr Vlasov +1800
Dani Martinez +2000
Enric Mas + 3300
Ben O’Connor +4000
Adam Yates +4000

BTP Contender Tiers
Tier 1) Tadej Pogačar
Tier 2) Primož Roglič, Jonas Vingegaard
Tier 3) Geraint Thomas, Aleksandr Vlasov
Tier 4) Ben O’Connor, Dani Martinez, Enric Mas

Frankly, it is hard to imagine a scenario where Tadej Pogačar doesn’t win his third consecutive Tour de France. The only rider who has proven to have the mix of world-class time trialing and climbing ability, Primož Roglič, has appeared slightly off his game so far this season.
In my opinion, the only way Pogačar doesn’t win is if he suffers a crash or mechanical in the first week that causes him to lose significant time (even being caught out in the crosswinds in 2020 wasn’t enough to stop him).
If this happens, the Jumbo-Visma duo of Primož Roglič and Jonas Vingegaard stand the best chance of taking the win.
In terms of ‘outside’ chances, Jonas Vingegaard, Geraint Thomas, and Aleksandr Vlasov present the best options.
- Last year’s runner-up, Vingegaard, was flying at the recent Critérium du Dauphiné, but questions still linger in my mind if he can match his ride from 2021.
- Vlasov finished 4th overall at the 2021 Giro d’Italia, but hasn’t landed on a grand tour podium in his career. However, he has appeared to have taken a step up after joining Bora-Hansgrohe in the off-season.
- Thomas was fantastic at the Tour de Suisse, but with an extremely high crash rate (has DNF’d 50% of grand tours that he has started since 2017), the opening week will be difficult for him. Also, while he has been able to hold a very high level of performance at 36-years-of-age, even if he replicates his 2018 Tour winning power numbers, it still won’t be good enough to best Pogačar, Roglič and Vingegaard.

Does Wout van Aert Already Have The Green Jersey Wrapped Up?

While there is plenty of competition for the Points Jersey (aka Green Jersey) like Mathieu van der Poel (+3300) and Peter Sagan (+500), it isn’t clear if they will be able to mount a legitimate challenge against Jumbo-Visma’s Wout van Aert (currently a -155 favorite).

For example, Sagan is recovering from a fresh case of COVID contracted at the Tour de Suisse, while the other threats to Van Aert won’t be fully committed to going for green since they are splitting their team with a pure sprinter: Alpecin has Mathieu van der Poel & Jasper Philipsen while BikeExchange has Michael Matthews & Dylan Groenewegen. This means both Matthews and Van der Poel are likely to lose valuable points to their teammates in the flat sprint stages while Van Aert, as the top sprinter on his team (in addition to being a key GC domestique) will be free to rack up points in these sprints.

This dynamic will give Van Aert a massive leg up, but a recent knee injury suffered at training camp, along with his aforementioned domestique duty, could get in the way of a clean run at the jersey.

Stage 1 Preview

Friday’s opening stage in Copenhagen serves up a flat, but technical, 13-kilometer time trial. On paper, time trial World Champion Filippo Ganna is the favorite for the stage win, and if this was a straight-line 40-kilometer slog, we could confidently already crown him the winner, overall leader after stage 1 and holder of the first Yellow Jersey. However, I am interested to see how the more explosive Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert fare on the relatively short with plenty of turns and curves that will give them an advantage due to their bike handling prowess.

While whoever wins the stage will take the race lead, the time gaps could be close enough to see a battle for time bonus seconds that will give us a fascinating early subplot and add stakes to the sprint stages through the opening six days of racing.

Beyond the Peloton

Tour de France Pre-Race Cheat Sheet