2025 Rider Tiers Part 3: Ranking The Top 20 Grand Tour Stage Contenders
Breaking down where each major grand tour stage win contender stands as we approach the start of the 2025 season
To build on last week’s tiering of the top 20 Grand Tour and One-Day contenders heading into the 2025 season, we are finishing off this three-part series separating the top 20 Grand Tour stage-winning riders into five tiers.
Catch Up:
Part 1: Ranking the Top 20 2025 Grand Tour Contenders
Part 2: Ranking the Top 20 2025 One-Day Contenders
Ranking the Top 2025 Grand Tour Stage Contenders
When I initially sat down a few years ago to do this exercise for the first time, I aimed for it to be a breakdown of the sport’s top sprinters. But, after sorting their grand tour stage results from recent seasons, I was somewhat shocked to discover that the most prolific modern stage contenders and winners don’t necessarily fall into a pure ‘sprinter’ category, and some, like Tadej Pogačar, have been able to become elite stage winners while also contending in the GC.
Since the ultimate point of employing a sprinter is to maximize your team’s chances of winning the largest possible volume of races, it only seems fair to weigh sprinters against all other potential stage winners.
Unfortunately, this expansion made the project much more difficult and removed many talented (especially young) riders from the roster.
To be as fair and balanced as possible, I count only wins and podiums generated in mass-start races and disqualify time trial results.
Why This Is Helpful
As I outlined last week, this exercise aims to attempt to cut through the noise objectively and see who the best riders in each discipline are.
This is especially important in the modern landscape, where a rider’s results and media coverage can be oddly inverted.
In fact, the general narrative can be incredibly slow to recognize that riders have passed their prime, that the sport has fundamentally changed to the point that they are no longer consistent contenders, and that certain riders win at an incredibly high rate (e.g., Mads Pedersen).
The Criteria for Inclusion
To delineate them into tiers, I am taking into account:
1) A rider’s top three mass-start stage results in grand tour stages over the past four seasons, with results generated recently given greater emphasis.
2) A rider’s age and, most importantly, their likelihood of generating results (wins) in Grand Tour stages across the 2025 season.
While there is a nearly endless array of established and emerging stage-winning talents, a rider must have won a mass-start grand tour stage in the past two seasons to qualify for a spot in the five tiers.
Some younger riders, like Derek Gee and Arnaud de Lie, may go on to win multiple grand tour stages in 2025, but for the sake of this exercise and to keep the list from ballooning to an unmanageable size, we are only focusing on riders who have ticked this box.
Additionally, since every grand tour has a different level of competition, Tour de France stage wins are weighted above wins at the two other ‘lesser’ Grand Tours (Giro and Vuelta).
BTP Stage Performance Score: To help me wade through the massive number of stage contenders, I created an objective stage-contending score, which is a simple tally of every considered rider’s podiums in Grand Tour stages over the last four seasons.
Below, each rider is listed in their BTP designated tier along with the age they will be racing at in 2025:
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Tier 1
Reserved for riders who have proven an ability to win multiple stages at the sport’s top grand tours against the toughest competition and, most importantly, have the ability to do so in 2025. Just at a glance, it becomes clear this is an incredibly elite group of riders with the rare combination of elite talent and recent real-world results to back that talent up.
Tadej Pogačar - (26) - UAE
2024: 5xTdF wins (6xTdF podium), 5xGiro win (7xGiro podium)
2023: 2xTdF wins (6xTdF podium)
2022: 3xTdF wins (5xTdF podium)
2021: 2xTdF wins (3xTdF podium)
GT Stage Win Totals: 17
BTP Stage Score: 27
Jasper Philipsen - (26) - Alpecin-Deceuninck
2024: 3xTdF wins (5xTdF podiums)
2023: 4xTdF wins (6xTdF podiums)
2022: 2xTdF wins (5xTdF podiums)
2021: 2xLaVuelta wins (3xLaVuelta podiums), (6xTdF podiums)
GT Stage Win Totals: 11
BTP Stage Score: 25
Wout van Aert - (30) - Visma-Lease a Bike
2024: 3xLaVuelta wins (6xLaVuelta podiums), (3xTdF podiums)
2023: (3xTdF Podium)
2022: 2xTdF wins (6xTdF podium)
2021: 2xTdF wins (3xTdF podium)
GT Stage Win Totals: 7
BTP Stage Score: 21
Tier 2
Riders who have won multiple grand tour stages in the past and could again in 2025, but their Tour de France success either lacks the required volume or recency to land them in the top tier. Still, these riders will be considered serious potential stage winners across any grand tour they take part in during the 2025 season.
Primož Roglič - (35) - Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe
2024: 3xVuelta wins (4xVuelta podiums)
2023: 2xVuelta wins (3xVuelta podiums), (1xGiro podiums),
2022: 1xLaVuelta wins (2xLaVuelta podiums), (1xTdF podium)
2021: 2xLaVuelta wins (6xLaVuelta podiums), (2xTdF podiums)
GT Stage Win Totals: 8
BTP Stage Score: 19
Kaden Groves - (26) - Alpecin-Deceuninck
2024: 3xLaVuelta wins (5xLaVuelta podiums), (4xGiro podiums)
2023: 3xLaVuelta win (5xLaVuelta podium), 1xGiro win (3xGiro podium)
2022: 1xLaVuelta win (1xLaVuelta podium)
2021: N/A
GT Stage Win Totals: 8
BTP Stage Score: 18
Jonas Vingegaard - (28) - Visma-Lease a Bike
2024: 1xTdF win (4xTdF podium)
2023: (3xTdF podium), 2xLaVuelta win (4xLaVuelta podium)
2022: 2xTdF wins (4xTdF podium)
2021: (2xTdF podium)
GT Stage Win Totals: 5
BTP Stage Score: 17
Tier 3
The level of talent in this tier is absurdly high, as evidenced by world-class riders sprinters like Pedersen, a Green Jersey winner in Biniam Girmay, and a superstar in the form of Remco Evenepoel. While they can win multiple stages at any grand tour they enter, up until this point, they have lacked the volume or recency of success at the Tour de France needed to crack a higher tier. The 2025 season will present a major opportunity for every rider in this tier to increase their standing, but with so much quality occupying the tiers above them and the youth in the ranks below them, this will prove to be no easy feat.
Mads Pedersen - (29) - Lidl-Trek
2024: N/A
2023: 1xGiro win (3xGiro podium), 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
2022: 3xLaVuelta win (7xLaVuelta podium), 1xTdF win (3xTdF podium)
2021: N/A
GT Stage Win Totals: 6
BTP Stage Score: 14
Jonathan Milan - (24) - Lidl-Trek
2024: 3xGiro wins (7xGiro podiums)
2023: 1xGiro win (5xGiro podiums)
2022: N/A
2021: N/A
GT Stage Win Totals: 4
BTP Stage Score: 12
Biniam Girmay - (24) - Intermarché-Wanty
2024: 3xTdF wins (5xTdF Podiums), (1xGiro podium)
2023: (1xTdF podium)
2022: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podiums)
2021: N/A
GT Stage Win Totals: 4
BTP Stage Score: 9
Remco Evenepoel - (25) - Soudal Quick-Step
2024: (4xTdF podiums)
2023: 3xLaVuelta wins (5xLaVuelta podiums)
2022: 1xLaVuelta stage win (2xLaVuelta podium)
2021: N/A
GT Stage Win Totals: 4
BTP Stage Score: 11
Tim Merlier - (32) - Soudal Quick-Step
2024: 3xGiro wins (3xGiro podiums)
2023: N/A
2022: (2xLaVuelta podiums)
2021: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium), 1xGiro win (2xGiro podiums)
GT Stage Win Totals: 5
BTP Stage Score: 8
Tier 4
These are riders who are either veterans impressively holding onto their past dominance (Matthews), solid stage-hunting careerists who have emerged as consistent performers in the past few years (Cort), or aging stars in the midst of recovering from a disappointing past few years (Carapaz).
Magnus Cort - (32) - Uno-X Mobility
2024: N/A
2023: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podium)
2022: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium), (1xGiro podium)
2021: 3xLaVuelta win (4xLaVuelta podium), (1xTdF podium)
GT Stage Win Totals: 5
BTP Stage Score: 9
Dylan Groenewegen - (31) - Jayco AlUla
2024: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
2023: (2xTdF podium)
2022: 1xTdF win (2xTdF podium)
2021: N/A
GT Stage Win Totals: 2
BTP Stage Score: 5
Michael Matthews - (34) - Jayco AlUla
2024: N/A
2023: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podium)
2022: 1xTdF win (3xTdF podium)
2021: (2xLaVuelta podium), (2xTdF podium)
GT Stage Win Totals: 2
BTP Stage Score: 9
Richard Carapaz - (31) - EF Education-EasyPost
2024: 1xTdF win (2xTdF podiums), (1xLaVuelta Podiums)
2023: N/A
2022: 3xLaVuelta wins (3xLaVuelta podium), (2xGiro podiums)
2021: (2xTdF podiums)
GT Stage Win Totals: 4
BTP Stage Score: 10
Tier 5
A collection of the sport’s top stage winners who either are struggling to win consistently but are able to podium at an impressive rate (Soler), big-game hunters who don’t win often but make it count when they do (Mohorič), sprinters who rank far below the best in non-Grand Tours but shine in three-week races (Dainese), and young riders who make up for their lack of volume with scorching-hot upward trajectories and qualities of wins (Castrillo) that indicate they will continue to build on their existing stage win palmares in 2025.
Marc Soler - (31) - UAE
2024: 1xLaVuelta win (4xLaVuelta podiums)
2022: 1xLaVuelta win (3xLaVuelta podiums)
BTP Stage Score: 7
Alberto Dainese - (26) - Tudor Pro Cycling Team
2023: 1xGiro win (1xGiro podium), 1xLaVuelta win (1xLaVuelta podium)
2022: 1xGiro win (1xGiro podium), (1xTdF podium)
2021: (3xLaVuelta podium)
BTP Stage Score: 7
Adam Yates - (32) - UAE
2024: 1xLaVuelta (1xLaVuelta podium)
2023: 1xTDF win, (2xTdF podium)
2021: (1xLaVuelta podium)
BTP Stage Score: 4
Matej Mohorič - (30) - Bahrain-Victorious
2023: 1xTdF win (2xTdF podium)
2021: 2xTdF wins (2xTdF podiums) 2021
BTP Stage Score: 4
Pablo Castrillo - (23) - Movistar
2024: 2xLaVuelta wins (2xLaVuelta podiums)
BTP Stage Score: 2
Qualifying Riders Left Out
The following riders have all technically qualified for the top five tiers, but because the rankings prioritize projected future performance over past wins, their lack of recent, consistent stage results at Grand Tours has prevented them from reaching the top tiers.
Kasper Asgreen - (30) - EF Education-EasyPost
2023: 1xTdF win (2xTdF podium)
BTP Stage Score: 2
Julian Alaphilippe - (32) - Soudal Quick-Step:
2024: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podiums)
2021: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
BTP Stage Score: 3
Lennard Kämna - (28) - Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe
2023: 1xLaVuelta wins (2xLaVuelta podiums)
2022: 1xGiro win (1xGiro podiums)
BTP Stage Score: 3
Juan Sebastián Molano - (30) - UAE
2024: (1xLaVuelta podium)
2023: 1xLaVuelta win (2xLaVuelta podiums)
2022: 1xLaVuelta win (1xLaVuelta podium)
BTP Stage Score: 4
Notable Did Not Qualify
Illustrating just how difficult it is to remain eligible for the top tiers, below are eight consistent stage contenders and extremely high-quality riders whose recent Palmeres didn’t allow them to qualify for the tiers above.
Mathieu van der Poel - (30) - Alpecin-Deceuninck
2022: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podium)
2021: 1xTdF stage win (1xTdF podium)
BTP Stage Score: 3
Derek Gee - (26) - Israel-Premier Tech
2024: 1xTdF podium
2023: 4xGiro podiums
BTP Stage Score: 5
Fabio Jakobsen - (28) - Picnic PostNL
2022: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
2021: 3xLaVuelta win (5xLaVuelta podiums)
BTP Stage Score: 6
Arnaud Démare - (33) - Arkéa-B&B Hotels
2022: 3xGiro win (4xGiro podium)
2021: (1xLaVuelta podium)
BTP Stage Score: 5
Sam Bennett (34)
2022: 2xLaVuelta win (2xLaVuelta podium)
BTP Stage Score: 2
Tom Pidcock (25)
2024: (1xTdF podium)
2022: 1xTdF win (1xTdF podium)
BTP Stage Score: 2
Simon Yates (32)
2024: (2xTdF podium)
2023: (2xTdF podium)
2022: 1xGiro win (1xGiro podium)
2021: 1xGiro win (2xGiro podium)
BTP Stage Score: 7
Caleb Ewan (30)
2023: (2xTdF podiums)
2022: (1xGiro podium)
2021: 2xGiro wins (2xGiro podiums)
BTP Stage Score: 5
Key Takeaways
1) Tadej Pogačar is without a doubt the best rider in the sport, and on his way to becoming the best of all-time: For the third-straight season, the Slovenian superstar finished in the top tier of all three categories.
This mind-bending achievement highlights the absurd depth of his talent and skills and underlines why any conversation about any other active rider being better isn’t even worth having.
Few riders can win both one-day Monuments and grand tour overalls, but almost no one outside a handful of the all-time greats can combine those two disparate skills with the ability to become the most prolific modern grand tour stage winner.
If Pogačar can continue his current dominance for a full decade (no easy feat), he has a real opportunity to get close to the major race totals of Eddy Merckx, which, until recently, was considered impossible.
2) Sprinters are quickly becoming a less and less effective way to win Grand Tour stages: One major trend that stood out while reviewing these totals was the undeniable shift in the modern iteration of the sport, where pure sprinters struggle to dominate the stage-win count as the rise of more challenging courses and more versatile superstars squeeze their opportunities for stage wins.
This is especially prevalent at the Tour de France, where the higher level of talent, increasing stakes, ever-challenging courses, and, for the most part, the death of the pancake-flat transition stage have made it increasingly difficult for pure sprinters to rack up wins.
Tier Breakdown by Rider Type:
Sprinter: 6
1xTier 1, 1xTier 2, 2xTier 3, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
GC Contenders: 6
1xTier 1, 2xTier 2, 1xTier 3, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
One-Day Contender/Versatile Sprinter: 5
1xTier 1, 0xTier 2, 2xTier 3, 1xTier 4, 1xTier 5
Stage-Hunter: 3
1xTier 4, 2xTier 5
3) However, despite their rapidly decreasing potency, sprinters still provide the best path to Grand Tour stage results for budget-constrained teams. Oddly, even with the shift toward riders who can do everything well and aren’t simply reliant on straight, flat sprint finishes, one of the sport’s biggest and most versatile stars, Mathieu Van der Poel, scores a surprisingly low number of Grand Tour stage wins, having only netted two in his career and none over the past two seasons.
But, impressively, despite this drought, his Alpecin-Deceuninck team still ranks second in the number of top stage contenders thanks to the presence of their dual sprint threats, Kaden Groves and Jasper Philipsen.
Tier Breakdowns by Team:
UAE: 3 (1xTier 1, 2xTier 5)
Alpecin: 2 (1xTier 1, 1xTier 2)
Visma-Lease a Bike: 2 (1xTier 1, 1xTier 2)
Jayco-AlUla: 2 (2x Tier 4)
Soudal-QuickStep: 2 (2xTier 3)
Lidl-Trek: 2 (2xTier 3)RedBull-Bora: 1 (1xTier 2)
Intermarché-Wanty: 1 (1xTier 3)
Uno-X: 1 (1xTier 4)
EF-EasyPost: 1 (1xTier 4)
Bahrain: 1 (1xTier 5)
Movistar: 1 (1xTier 5)
Tudor: 1 (1xTier 5)
Another notable callout is Jayco-AlUla, whose twin threats of Dylan Groenewegen and Michael Matthews have allowed them to stay relevant in the stage-hunting game with a fairly limited budget.
Two budget-limited teams have leveraged relatively affordable sprinters to score major stage wins at regular intervals, which shows that even as purely flat transition stages become increasingly rare in Grand Tours, sprinters are still a very efficient way for a team to rack up stage results.
It is worth mentioning that this does come with a slight caveat: The best sprinters are becoming more and more versatile, like the Alpecin duo Jasper Philipsen and Kaden Groves, since the faster and harder courses can help them leverage their superior fitness to overcome their lack of pure speed/power, and the superstar GC riders are continuing to take up a greater share of stage wins as breakaways are becoming less and less successful.
In fact, illustrating just how important Philipsen’s higher level of versatility and fitness is compared to the other top sprinters, he is the only one in the group of sprinters formerly known as the Big Six (Philipsen, Jakobsen, Ewan, Bennett, Démare, and Groenewegen) to have won multiple Tour de France stages in the past three seasons.
Meanwhile, the less versatile sprinters who dominated Grand Tours sprints in the past, and most of whom made the list last year (Jakobsen, Ewan, Bennett, and Démare), all failed to qualify in this edition, which highlights just how quickly the stage-win game has changed.
Even the remainder of the sprinters who made the cut (Merlier, Milan, and Dainese) are extremely well-rounded riders who can weather increasingly difficult Grand Tour parcours.